Aerosol Research and Inhalation Epidemiological Study (ARIES): Air Quality and Daily Mortality Statistical Modeling— Interim Results

ABSTRACT

The Aerosol Research and Inhalation Epidemiological Study (ARIES) is an EPRI-sponsored project to collect air quality and meteorological data at a single site in northwestern Atlanta, GA. Seventy high-resolution air quality indicators (AQIs) are used to examine statistical relationships between air quality and health outcome end points. Contemporaneous mortality data are collected for Fulton and DeKalb counties in Georgia. Currently, 12 months of air quality and weather data are available for analysis, from August 1998 through July 1999.

The interim mortality analysis used Poisson regression in generalized additive models (GAMs). The estimated log-linear association of mortality with various AQIs was adjusted for smoothed functions of time and meteorological data. The analysis considered daily deaths due to all nonaccidental causes, deaths to persons 65 years or older, and deaths in each of the two constituent counties. The fine particle effect associated with the four mortality subgroups, using only today (lag 0), yesterday (lag 1), 2-day average (average of today and yesterday), and first difference (today minus yesterday) measurements of the air quality relative to today's number of deaths was positive for lag 0, lag 1, and 2-day average and positive only for decedents at least 65 years of age using first difference. The t values ranged from 0.81 to 1.15 for lag 0, 1.04 to 1.53 for lag 1, 1.10 to 1.66 for 2-day average, and -0.32 to 0.33 for first difference with 346 or 347 days of data. No statistically significant estimate of the linear coefficient was found for the other 14 air quality variables in our interim analysis for the four mortality subgroups. We discuss diagnostics to support these models.

These interim analyses did not include an evaluation of sensitivity to a larger set of lag structures, nonlinear model specifications, multipollutant analyses, alternative weather model and smoothing model specifications, air pollution imputation schemes, or cause-specific mortality indicators, nor did they include a full reporting of model selection or goodness-of-fit indicators. No conclusion can be drawn at this time about whether the findings from subsequent studies have sufficiently greater power to detect effects comparable to those found in other U.S. cities including at least 2 or 3 years of data.     

Fixation of metals in soil constituents and potential remobilization by hyperaccumulating and non-hyperaccumulating plants: results from an isotopic dilution study

In this study isotopic dilution methods were used to investigate the hypothesis that access to metals associated with specific chemical components in the soil that are not available to non-accumulator species could be involved in hyperaccumulation. The hyperaccumulator Thlaspi caerulescens and a non-accumulator species, Brassica napus, were grown in Cd and Zn enriched soil components calcite, goethite, charcoal and cryptomelane. The metal enriched components were aged to allow transformation of a proportion of added metals to non-labile forms. Results from the isotopic dilution L value method showed that despite taking up more metals, T. caerulescens accessed the same pool of metals as B. napus. Hence differential access to different solid-phase pools of metals appears to be an unlikely mechanism underlying metal hyperaccumulation. For all components except charcoal, L values for Cd and Zn were greater than the corresponding E values suggesting that E values may tend to underestimate the bioavailable fraction of metals in soils.     

Temperature dependence of secondary organic aerosol

Temperature was found to have a dramatic effect on secondary organic aerosol formation from two ozonolysis systems, cyclohexene and α-pinene. Isothermal experiments were conducted for both systems where the lowest temperature, 278 K, formed approximately 2.5–3 times and 5–6 times the SOA formed at 300 K and 318 K, respectively. Changing the cyclohexene system temperature to a different isothermal experimental set point after completion of SOA formation did not lead to sufficient condensation/evaporation to reproduce the SOA formation at other temperature set points. When the system temperature was cycled between two set points at the end of an experiment, the α-pinene system showed reversibility between the initial temperature 318 K and 300 K. For temperature cycles between the initial temperature of 300 K–318 K, an irreversible loss of mass is observed after the first heating cycle with reversibility observed between subsequent temperature cycles. The SOA formed at 278 K was reversible over a 22 K range but was unable to evaporate sufficiently to match the SOA mass formed at 300 K. Hygroscopicity measurements, taken after the completion of SOA formation, indicate that hygroscopicity of the aerosol is also a function of temperature and that the aerosol does not continue to be oxidized after initial growth is complete. The differing hygroscopicity of the semi-volatile component of the aerosol is evident during system temperature changes after completion of the experiment.     

Can forest management be used to sustain water-based ecosystem services in the face of climate change?

Forested watersheds, an important provider of ecosystems services related to water supply, can have their structure, function, and resulting streamflow substantially altered by land use and land cover. Using a retrospective analysis and synthesis of long-term climate and streamfiow data (75 years) from six watersheds differing in management histories we explored whether streamflow responded differently to variation in annual temperature and extreme precipitation than unmanaged watersheds. We show significant increases in temperature and the frequency of extreme wet and dry years since the 1980s. Response models explained almost all streamflow variability (adjusted R2 > 0.99). In all cases, changing land use altered streamflow. Observed watershed responses differed significantly in wet and dry extreme years in all but a stand managed as a coppice forest. Converting deciduous stands to pine altered the streamflow response to extreme annual precipitation the most; the apparent frequency of observed extreme wet years decreased on average by sevenfold. This increased soil water storage may reduce flood risk in wet years, but create conditions that could exacerbate drought. Forest management can potentially mitigate extreme annual precipitation associated with climate change; however, offsetting effects suggest the need for spatially explicit analyses of risk and vulnerability.     

Growth dynamics of Chinese wingnut (Pterocarya stenoptera) seedlings and its effects on soil chemical properties under simulated water change in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region of Yangtze River

Pterocarya stenoptera is a native deciduous tree species and a candidate for reforestation in the riparian zones of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region of Yangtze River in China. Water treatments of continuous flooding (CF) and periodic flooding–drought (PF) were applied to examine the growth dynamics of 4-month-old P. stenoptera seedlings and its effects on soil chemical properties. Results showed that P. stenoptera seedlings in both CF and PF significantly decreased leaf biomass accumulation and the height and diameter growth as compared to that in control (CK; treatment with well-watered, well-drained soil), respectively. There was no significant difference in stem biomass among the three groups, but root biomass in PF showed severe reduction compared to that in both CK and CF. Total biomass in PF was significantly decreased compared to that in CK, but comparable to that in CF. Furthermore, no significant difference was found between CF and CK in total biomass. Water treatments in the unplanted soil pots significantly influenced soil pH, soil organic matter (OM), total nitrogen (TN), and alkali hydrolysable nitrogen (AN) contents, in contrast to no significant effects in total phosphorus (TP), total potassium (TK), available phosphorus (AP), and available potassium (AK) contents. In P. stenoptera soils, there were significant effects by water treatment, time, and treatment × time in the eight tested soil chemical properties, except treatment in TK and time effect in OM content. Compared to unplanted soils, the growth of P. stenoptera seedlings significantly increased soil pH value and OM, TN, TP, and TK contents, while decreasing AN, AP, and AK contents in CK group, augmented the mean value of each of the tested soil chemical properties with an exception of AK content in CF group, and increased soil pH value and TN, AN, TP, and AP contents with no significant differences in OM, TK, and AK contents in PF group. Given the fact that TN and TP contents significantly increased in P. stenoptera soils as compared to those in unplanted soils, growth of P. stenoptera seedlings should be a successful candidate for restoration within the highly dynamic hydrologic zone of the riparian zones of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.     

Copper, zinc and cadmium in marine cage fish farm sediments: an extensive survey

The diet of cage-farmed Atlantic salmon contains a range of trace metals, some of which have toxic properties, e.g. zinc, copper and cadmium. A survey of metal concentrations (ICP-MS analysis) in surface sediments of ca. 70 stations was carried out in both May and December 2000 around a Scottish fish farm. Additionally, at 13 stations on 2 orthogonal transects centered on the farm, sediments were analysed at 1cm intervals to 8 cm depth. Maximum concentrations in surface sediments were 921, 805 and 3.5 microg g(-1) for Zn, Cu and Cd, respectively, and were found at stations near the fish farm. The calculated losses from the farm (feed input minus fish output) were 87.0%, 4.3% and 14.0% of the background-corrected inventories for Zn, Cu and Cd, respectively, indicating that for Cu and Cd at least, the feed is not the only source.     

Transport of fecal bacteria by boots and vehicle tires in a rural Alaskan community

People living without piped water and sewer can be at increased risk for diseases transmitted via the fecal-oral route. One rural Alaskan community that relies on hauling water into homes and sewage from homes was studied to determine the pathways of fecal contamination of drinking water and the human environment so that barriers can be established to protect health. Samples were tested for the fecal indicator, Escherichia coli, and the less specific indicator group, total coliforms. Shoes transported fecal contamination from outside to floor material inside buildings. Contamination in puddles on the road, in conjunction with contamination found on all-terrain vehicle (ATV) tires, supports vehicle traffic as a mechanism for transporting contamination from the dumpsite or other source areas to the rest of the community. The abundance of fecal bacteria transported around the community on shoes and ATV tires suggests that centralized measures for waste disposal as well as shoe removal in buildings could improve sanitation and health in the community.     

EPR monitoring of the bioavailability of an organic xenobiotic (4-hydroxy-TEMPO) in model clay suspensions and pastes

Electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy is used to monitor the bioavailability of a nitroxide spin probe, 4-hydroxy-Tempo or Tempol, in Ca-hectorite suspensions and pastes, to bacteria capable of degrading this probe co-metabolically. In nutrient solutions with an initial probe concentration of 1.2 mM and in the absence of hectorite, bacteria are able to denature Tempol and eliminate its paramagnetic signal within 48 h. In the presence of hectorite and after flocculation, the effect of bacteria is significantly delayed, but almost complete denaturation still occurs, after roughly 120 h. When hectorite is added but the bacterial/clay suspension is not centrifuged, Tempol denaturation levels off after about 24 h and reaches a plateau with approximately 45% of Tempol remaining. This plateau does not constitute evidence of limited bioavailability, as is widely assumed, since subsequent addition of nutrients causes the denaturation reaction to proceed to a second plateau, with merely 10% of Tempol remaining.     

Muskox status,recent variation,and uncertain future

Ambio - Muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) are an integral component of Arctic biodiversity. Given low genetic diversity, their ability to respond to future and rapid Arctic change is unknown, although...     

Water quality and health in northern Canada: stored drinking water and acute gastrointestinal illness in Labrador Inuit

One of the highest self-reported incidence rates of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) in the global peer-reviewed literature occurs in Inuit communities in the Canadian Arctic. This high incidence of illness could be due, in part, to the consumption of contaminated water, as many northern communities face challenges related to the quality of municipal drinking water. Furthermore, many Inuit store drinking water in containers in the home, which could increase the risk of contamination between source and point-of-use (i.e., water recontamination during storage). To examine this risk, this research characterized drinking water collection and storage practices, identified potential risk factors for water contamination between source and point-of-use, and examined possible associations between drinking water contamination and self-reported AGI in the Inuit community of Rigolet, Canada. The study included a cross-sectional census survey that captured data on types of drinking water used, household practices related to drinking water (e.g., how it was collected and stored), physical characteristics of water storage containers, and self-reported AGI. Additionally, water samples were collected from all identified drinking water containers in homes and analyzed for presence of Escherichia coli and total coliforms. Despite municipally treated tap water being available in all homes, 77.6% of households had alternative sources of drinking water stored in containers, and of these containers, 25.2% tested positive for total coliforms. The use of transfer devices and water dippers (i.e., smaller bowls or measuring cups) for the collection and retrieval of water from containers were both significantly associated with increased odds of total coliform presence in stored water (OR_{transfer device} = 3.4, 95% CI 1.2–11.7; OR_dipper = 13.4, 95% CI 3.8–47.1). Twenty-eight-day period prevalence of self-reported AGI during the month before the survey was 17.2% (95% CI 13.0–22.5), which yielded an annual incidence rate of 2.4 cases per person per year (95% CI 1.8–3.1); no water-related risk factors were significantly associated with AGI. Considering the high prevalence of, and risk factors associated with, indicator bacteria in drinking water stored in containers, potential exposure to waterborne pathogens may be minimized through interventions at the household level.