A new approach to the "apparent survival" problem: estimating true survival rates from mark-recapture studies

Survival estimates generated from live capture-mark-recapture studies may be negatively biased due to the permanent emigration of marked individuals from the study area. In the absence of a robust analytical solution, researchers typically sidestep this problem by simply reporting estimates using the term "apparent survival." Here, we present a hierarchical Bayesian multistate model designed to estimate true survival by accounting for predicted rates of permanent emigration. Initially we use dispersal kernels to generate spatial projections of dispersal probability around each capture location. From these projections, we estimate emigration probability for each marked individual and use the resulting values to generate bias-adjusted survival estimates from individual capture histories. When tested using simulated data sets featuring variable detection probabilities, survival rates, and dispersal patterns, the model consistently eliminated negative biases shown by apparent survival estimates from standard models. When applied to a case study concerning juvenile survival in the endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis), bias-adjusted survival estimates increased more than twofold above apparent survival estimates. Our approach is applicable to any capture-mark-recapture study design and should be particularly valuable for organisms with dispersive juvenile life stages.     

Phosphorus in Phoenix: a budget and spatial representation of phosphorus in an urban ecosystem

As urban environments dominate the landscape, we need to examine how limiting nutrients such as phosphorus (P) cycle in these novel ecosystems. Sustainable management of P resources is necessary to ensure global food security and to minimize freshwater pollution. We used a spatially explicit budget to quantify the pools and fluxes of P in the Greater Phoenix Area in Arizona, USA, using the boundaries of the Central Arizona-Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research site. Inputs were dominated by direct imports of food and fertilizer for local agriculture, while most outputs were small, including water, crops, and material destined for recycling. Internally, fluxes were dominated by transfers of food and feed from local agriculture and the recycling of human and animal excretion. Spatial correction of P dynamics across the city showed that human density and associated infrastructure, especially asphalt, dominated the distribution of P pools across the landscape. Phosphorus fluxes were dominated by agricultural production, with agricultural soils accumulating P. Human features (infrastructure, technology, and waste management decisions) and biophysical characteristics (soil properties, water fluxes, and storage) mediated P dynamics in Phoenix. P cycling was most notably affected by water management practices that conserve and recycle water, preventing the loss of waterborne P from the ecosystem. P is not intentionally managed, and as a result, changes in land use and demographics, particularly increased urbanization and declining agriculture, may lead to increased losses of P from this system. We suggest that city managers should minimize cross-boundary fluxes of P to the city. Reduced P fluxes may be accomplished through more efficient recycling of waste, therefore decreasing dependence on external nonrenewable P resources and minimizing aquatic pollution. Our spatial approach and consideration of both pools and fluxes across a heterogeneous urban ecosystem increases the utility of nutrient budgets for city managers. Our budget explicitly links processes that affect P cycling across space with the management of other resources (e.g., water). A holistic management strategy that deliberately couples the management of P and other resources should be a priority for cities in achieving urban sustainability.     

Definition and calculation of uncertainty in ecological process models

We present a method of multi-criteria assessment for the analysis of process model uncertainty that combines analysis of model structure, parameters and data requirements. There are three components in calculation and definition of uncertainty.

(1)

Assessment criteria: Uncertainty in a process model is reduced as the model can simultaneously simulate an increased number of assessment criteria selected to test specific aspects of the theory being investigated, and within acceptable limits set for those criteria. This reduces incomplete specification of the model—the characteristic that a model may explain some, but not all, of the observed features of a phenomenon. The calculation required is computation of the Pareto set which provides the list of simultaneously achieved criteria within specified ranges.     

Food site residence time and female competitive relationships in wild gray-cheeked mangabeys (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lophocebus albigena</Emphasis>)

Authors of socioecological models propose that food distribution affects female social relationships in that clumped food resources, such as fruit, result in strong dominance hierarchies and favor coalition formation with female relatives. A number of Old World monkey species have been used to test predictions of the socioecological models. However, arboreal forest-living Old World monkeys have been understudied in this regard, and it is legitimate to ask whether predominantly arboreal primates living in tropical forests exhibit similar or different patterns of behavior. Therefore, the goal of our study was to investigate female dominance relationships in relation to food in gray-cheeked mangabeys (Lophocebus albigena). Since gray-cheeked mangabeys are largely frugivorous, we predicted that females would have linear dominance hierarchies and form coalitions. In addition, recent studies suggest that long food site residence time is another important factor in eliciting competitive interactions. Therefore, we also predicted that when foods had long site residence times, higher-ranking females would be able to spend longer at the resource than lower-ranking females. Analyses showed that coalitions were rare relative to some other Old World primate species, but females had linear dominance hierarchies. We found that, contrary to expectation, fruit was not associated with more agonism and did not involve long site residence times. However, bark, a food with a long site residence time and potentially high resource value, was associated with more agonism, and higher-ranking females were able to spend more time feeding on it than lower-ranking females. These results suggest that higher-ranking females may benefit from higher food and energy intake rates when food site residence times are long. These findings also add to accumulating evidence that food site residence time is a behavioral contributor to female dominance hierarchies in group-living species.     

Growth response of an early successional assemblage of coralline algae and benthic diatoms to ocean acidification

The sustained absorption of anthropogenically released atmospheric CO₂ by the oceans is modifying seawater carbonate chemistry, a process termed ocean acidification (OA). By the year 2100, the worst case scenario is a decline in the average oceanic surface seawater pH by 0.3 units to 7.75. The changing seawater carbonate chemistry is predicted to negatively affect many marine species, particularly calcifying organisms such as coralline algae, while species such as diatoms and fleshy seaweed are predicted to be little affected or may even benefit from OA. It has been hypothesized in previous work that the direct negative effects imposed on coralline algae, and the direct positive effects on fleshy seaweeds and diatoms under a future high CO₂ ocean could result in a reduced ability of corallines to compete with diatoms and fleshy seaweed for space in the future. In a 6-week laboratory experiment, we examined the effect of pH 7.60 (pH predicted to occur due to ocean acidification just beyond the year 2100) compared to pH 8.05 (present day) on the lateral growth rates of an early successional, cold-temperate species assemblage dominated by crustose coralline algae and benthic diatoms. Crustose coralline algae and benthic diatoms maintained positive growth rates in both pH treatments. The growth rates of coralline algae were three times lower at pH 7.60, and a non-significant decline in diatom growth meant that proportions of the two functional groups remained similar over the course of the experiment. Our results do not support our hypothesis that benthic diatoms will outcompete crustose coralline algae under future pH conditions. However, while crustose coralline algae were able to maintain their presence in this benthic rocky reef species assemblage, the reduced growth rates suggest that they will be less capable of recolonizing after disturbance events, which could result in reduced coralline cover under OA conditions.     

Behavioral transitions with the evolution of cooperative nest founding by harvester ant queens

Research on the evolution of cooperative groups tends to explore the costs and benefits of cooperation, with less focus on the proximate behavioral changes necessary for the transition from solitary to cooperative living. However, understanding what proximate changes must occur, as well as those pre-conditions already in place, is critical to understanding the origins and evolution of sociality. The California harvester ant Pogonomyrmex californicus demonstrates population-level variation in colony founding over a close geographic range. In adjacent populations, queens either found nests as single individuals (haplometrosis) or form cooperative groups of nonrelatives (pleometrosis). We compared aggregation, aggression, and tolerance of queens from one pleometrotic and two haplometrotic populations during nest initiation, to determine which behaviors show an evolutionary shift and which are present at the transition to pleometrosis. Surprisingly, within-nest aggregative behavior was equally present among all populations. In nesting boxes with multiple available brood-rearing sites, both queen types readily formed and clustered around a single common brood pile, suggesting that innate attraction to brood (offspring) facilitates the transition to social aggregation. In contrast, queens from the three populations differed in their probabilities of attraction on the ground to nest sites occupied by other queens and in levels of aggression. Our results suggest that some key behavioral mechanisms facilitating cooperation in P. californicus are in place prior to the evolution of pleometrosis and that the switch from aggression to tolerance is critical for the evolution of stable cooperative associations.     

Changes in maternal investment with climate moderate social behaviour in a facultatively social bee

Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology - Scents play an important role in the life of most terrestrial mammals and may transmit valuable information about conspecifics. Olfaction was long considered...     

Assessing coastal management case studies around Europe using an indicator based tool

Over 350 European Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) ‘best practice’ case studies are documented in the OURCOAST online public database, to ensure that lessons learned from experiences and practices are shared and improve coastal management practices. However, concrete criteria for ‘best practice’ are missing and a critical evaluation of the success of these case studies did not take place. We present an indicator-based tool and methodology that allows assessing the progress towards sustainability of ICZM measures. An indicator-based tool was applied to 18 thematically different coastal case studies using two different methods: a fast screening and an analysis in-depth assessment. Both methods used help to identify strengths and weaknesses of ICZM and their contribution to sustainable development. However, indicator scores were highly affected by evaluators’ background and perception. The tool is user-friendly and easy to apply, it indicates what progress has made towards sustainability and to which extent targets have been met.     

Reinforcement of male mate preferences in sympatric killifish species Lucania goodei and Lucania parva

Reinforcement occurs when reduced hybrid fitness leads to the evolution of a stronger prezygotic isolation. Populations sympatric with closely related species, where hybridization occurs, are predicted to have stronger mate preferences than allopatric populations. The reinforcement of male mate preference is thought to be rarer than the reinforcement of female preference, but this inference may be biased by the lack of studies on male preference. We tested male mate preferences from sympatric and allopatric populations of two closely related species of killifish: Lucania goodei and Lucania parva. We found that sympatric males had greater preferences for conspecific females than allopatric males. Furthermore, conspecific preferences in allopatric populations were weakest when these populations were geographically distant (>50?km) from those of heterospecifics. Our data suggest that reinforcement has contributed to male conspecific preference and speciation in Lucania.