Economic costs of achieving current conservation goals in the future as climate changes

Conservation of biologically diverse regions has thus far been accomplished largely through the establishment and maintenance of protected areas. Climate change is expected to shift climate space of many species outside existing reserve boundaries. We used climate-envelope models to examine shifts in climate space of 11 species that are representative of the Mount Hamilton Project area (MHPA) (California, U.S.A.), which includes areas within Alameda, Santa Clara, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, and San Benito counties and is in the state's Central Coast ecoregion. We used Marxan site-selection software to determine the minimum area required as climate changes to achieve a baseline conservation goal equal to 80% of existing climate space for all species in the MHPA through 2050 and 2100. Additionally, we assessed the costs associated with use of existing conservation strategies (land acquisition and management actions such as species translocation, monitoring, and captive breeding) necessary to meet current species-conservation goals as climate changes. Meeting conservation goals as climate changes through 2050 required an additional 256,000 ha (332%) of protected area, primarily to the south and west of the MHPA. Through 2050 the total cost of land acquisition and management was estimated at US$1.67-1.79 billion, or 139-149% of the cost of achieving the same conservation goals with no climate change. To maintain 80% of climate space through 2100 required nearly 380,000 additional hectares that would cost $2.46-2.62 billion, or 209-219% of the cost of achieving the same conservation goals with no climate change. Furthermore, maintaining 80% of existing climate space within California for 27% of the focal species was not possible by 2100 because climate space for these species did not exist in the state. The high costs of conserving species as the climate changes-that we found in an assessment of one conservation project-highlights the need for tools that will aid in iterative goal setting given the uncertainty of the effects of climate change and adaptive management that includes new conservation strategies and consideration of the long-term economic costs of conservation.     

Lead in New York City community garden chicken eggs: influential factors and health implications

Raising chickens for eggs in urban areas is becoming increasingly common. Urban chickens may be exposed to lead, a common urban soil contaminant. We measured lead concentrations in chicken eggs from New York City (NYC) community gardens and collected information on factors that might affect those concentrations. Lead was detected between 10 and 167 μg/kg in 48 % of NYC eggs. Measures of lead in eggs from a henhouse were significantly associated (p < 0.005) with lead concentrations in soil. The association between soil and egg lead has been evaluated only once before, by a study of a rural region in Belgium. In our study, the apparent lead soil-to-egg transfer efficiency was considerably lower than that found in Belgium, suggesting that there may be important geographic differences in this transfer. We developed models that suggested that, for sites like ours, lead concentrations in >50 % of eggs from a henhouse would exceed store-bought egg concentrations (<7–13 μg/kg; 3 % above detection limit) at soil lead concentrations >120 mg/kg and that the concentration in one of six eggs from a henhouse would exceed a 100 μg/kg guidance value at soil lead concentrations >410 mg/kg. Our models also suggested that the availability of dietary calcium supplements was another influential factor that reduced egg lead concentrations. Estimates of health risk from consuming eggs with the lead concentrations we measured generally were not significant. However, soil lead concentrations in this study were <600 mg/kg, and considerably higher concentrations are not uncommon. Efforts to reduce lead transfer to chicken eggs and associated exposure are recommended for urban chicken keepers.     

Nitrogen regulation of the climate-carbon feedback: evidence from a long-term global change experiment

Modeling studies have shown that nitrogen (N) strongly regulates ecosystem responses and feedback to climate warming. However, it remains unclear what mechanisms underlie N regulation of ecosystem-climate interactions. To examine N regulation of ecosystem feedback to climate change, we have conducted a warming and clipping experiment since November 1999 in a tallgrass prairie of the Great Plains, USA. Infrared heaters were used to elevate soil temperature by an average of 1.96 degrees C at a depth of 2.5 cm from 2000 to 2008. Yearly biomass clipping mimicked hay or biofuel feedstock harvest. We measured carbon (C) and N concentrations, estimated their content and C:N ratio in plant, root, litter, and soil pools. Warming significantly stimulated C storage in aboveground plant, root, and litter pools by 17%, 38%, and 29%, respectively, averaged over the nine years (all P < 0.05) but did not change soil C content or N content in any pool. Plant C:N ratio and nitrogen use efficiency increased in the warmed plots compared to the control plots, resulting primarily from increased dominance of C4 plants in the community. Clipping significantly decreased C and N storage in plant and litter pools (all P < 0.05) but did not have interactive effects with warming on either C or N pools over the nine years. Our results suggest that increased ecosystem nitrogen use efficiency via a shift in species composition toward C4 dominance rather than plant N uptake is a key mechanism underlying warming stimulation of plant biomass growth.     

Use of carbon-based composites to enhance performance of TiO<Subscript>2</Subscript> for the simultaneous removal of nitrates and organics from aqueous environments

The simultaneous photocatalytic removal of nitrate from aqueous environment in presence of organic hole scavenger using TiO₂ has long been explored. However, the use of unmodified TiO₂ in such reaction resulted in non-performance or release of significant amount of undesirable reaction products in the process, a problem that triggered surface modification of TiO₂ for enhanced photocatalytic performance. Previous studies focused on decreasing rate of charge carrier recombination and absorption of light in the visible region. Yet, increasing active sites and adsorption capacity by combining TiO₂ with a high surface area adsorbent such as activated carbon (AC) remains unexploited. This study reports the potential of such modification in simultaneous removal of nitrates and oxalic acid in aqueous environment. The adsorptive behaviour of nitrate and oxalic acid on TiO₂ and TiO₂/AC composites were studied. The Langmuir adsorption coefficient for nitrate was four times greater than that of oxalic acid. However, the amount of oxalic acid adsorbed was about 10 times greater than the amount of nitrate taken up. Despite this advantage, the materials did not appear to produce more active photocatalysts for the simultaneous degradation of nitrate and oxalic acid. The photocatalytic activity of TiO₂ and its carbon-based composites was improved by combination with Cu₂O particles. Consequently, 2.5 Cu₂O/TiO₂ exhibited the maximum photocatalytic performance with 57.6 and 99.8% removal of nitrate and oxalic acid, respectively, while selectivity stood at 45.7, 12.4 and 41.9% for NH₄⁺, NO₂^? and N₂, respectively. For the carbon based, 2.5 Cu₂O/TiO₂-20AC showed removal of 12.7% nitrate and 80.3% oxalic acid and achieved 21.6, 0 and 78.4% selectivity for NH₄⁺, NO₂^? and N₂, respectively. Using the optimal AC loading (20 wt%) resulted in significant decrease in the selectivity for NH₄⁺ with no formation of NO₂^?, which unveils that selectivity for N₂ and low/no selectivity for undesirable products can be manipulated by controlling the rate of consumption of oxalic acid. In contract, no nitrate reduction was observed with Cu₂O promoted TiO₂-T and its TiO₂-(T)-20AC, which may be connected to amorphous nature of TiO₂-T and perhaps served as charge carrier trapping sites that impeded activity.     

Assessment of diesel particulate matter exposure in the workplace: freight terminals

A large study has been undertaken to assess the exposure to diesel exhaust within diesel trucking terminals. A critical component of this assessment is an analysis of the variation in carbonaceous particulate matter (PM) across trucking terminal locations; consistency in the primary sources can be effectively tracked by analyzing trends in elemental carbon (EC) and organic molecular marker concentrations. Ambient samples were collected at yard, dock and repair shop work stations in 7 terminals in the USA and 1 in Mexico. Concentrations of EC ranged from 0.2 to 12 microg m(-3) among the terminals, which corresponds to the range seen in the concentration of summed hopanes (0.5 to 20.5 ng m(-3)). However, when chemical mass balance (CMB) source apportionment results were presented as percent contribution to organic carbon (OC) concentrations, the contribution of mobile sources to OC are similar among the terminals in different cities. The average mobile source percent contribution to OC was 75.3 +/- 17.1% for truck repair shops, 65.4 +/- 20.4% for the docks and 38.4 +/- 9.5% for the terminal yard samples. A relatively consistent mobile source impact was present at all the terminals only when considering percentage of total OC concentrations, not in terms of absolute concentrations.     

Optimising the sampling effort in riparian surveys

Riparian condition is commonly measured as part of stream health monitoring programs as riparian vegetation provides an intricate linkage between the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Field surveys of a riparian zone provide comprehensive riparian attribute data but can be considerably intensive and onerous on resources and workers. Our objective was to assess the impact of reducing the sampling effort on the variation in key riparian health indicators. Subsequently, we developed a non-parametric approach to calculate an information retained (IR) statistic for comparing several constrained systematic sampling schemes to the original survey. The IR statistic is used to select a scheme that reduces the time taken to undertake riparian surveys (and thus potentially the costs) whilst maximising the IR from the original survey. Approximate bootstrap confidence intervals were calculated to improve the inferential capability of the IR statistic. The approach is demonstrated using riparian vegetation indicators collected as part of an aquatic ecosystem health monitoring program in Queensland, Australia. Of the nine alternative sampling designs considered, the sampling design that reduced the sampling intensity per site by sixfold without significantly comprising the quality of the IR, results in halving the time taken to complete a riparian survey at a site. This approach could also be applied to reducing sampling effort involved in monitoring other ecosystem health indicators, where an intensive systematic sampling scheme was initially employed.     

Chloride effects on nitrogen dynamics in forested and suburban stream debris dams

Organic debris dams (accumulations of organic material) can function as "hotspots" of nitrogen (N) processing in streams. Suburban streams are often characterized by high flows that prevent the accumulation of organic debris and by elevated concentrations of solutes, especially nitrate (NO(3)(-)) and chloride (Cl(-)). In this study we (1) studied the effects of urbanization on the extent and characteristics of debris dams in large and small streams and (2) evaluated the effects of NO(3)(-) and Cl(-) on rates of N cycle processes in these debris dams. In some suburban streams debris dams were small and rare, but in others factors that reduce the effects of high stream flows fostered the maintenance of debris dams. Ambient denitrification enzyme activity (DEA) in these suburban and forested streams was positively correlated with stream NO(3)(-) concentrations. In laboratory microcosms, DEA in debris dam material from a forested reference stream was increased by NO(3)(-) additions. Chloride additions constrained the response of DEA to NO(3)(-) additions in material from the forested stream, but had no effect on DEA in material from streams with a history of high Cl(-) levels. Chloride additions changed the sign of net N mineralization from negative (consumption of inorganic N) to positive in debris dam material from the forested reference stream, but had no effect on net mineralization in material from streams with a history of exposure to Cl(-). Understanding the factors regulating the maintenance and N cycling activity of organic debris, and incorporating them into urban stream management plans could have important effects on N dynamics in suburban watersheds.     

Injury severity analysis of accidents involving young male drivers in Great Britain

Introduction

Young male drivers are over-represented in traffic accidents; they were involved in 14% of fatal accidents from 1991 to 2003 while holding only 8% of all drivers licenses in the UK. In this study, a subset of the UK national road accident data from 1991 to 2003 has been analyzed. The primary aim is to determine how to best use monetary and progressive resources to understand how road safety measures will reduce the severity of accidents involving young male drivers in both London and Great Britain.

Method

Ordered probit models were used to identify specific accident characteristics that increase the likelihood of one of three categorical outcomes of accident severity: slight, serious, or fatal.

Results

Characteristics found to lead to a higher likelihood of serious and fatal injuries are generally similar across Great Britain and London but are different from those predicted to lead to a higher likelihood of slight injuries. Those characteristics predicted to lead to serious and fatal injuries include driving in darkness, between Friday and Sunday, on roads with a speed limit of 60 mph, on single carriageways, overtaking, skidding, hitting an object off the carriageway, and when passing the site of a previous accident. Characteristics predicted to lead to slight injuries include driving in daylight, between Monday and Thursday, on roads with a speed limit of 30 mph or less, at a roundabout, waiting to move, and when an animal is on the carriageway.

Impact on Industry

These results aid the selection of policy options that are most likely to reduce the severity of accidents involving young male drivers.     

U.S. Natural Resources and Climate Change: Concepts and Approaches for Management Adaptation

Public lands and waters in the United States traditionally have been managed using frameworks and objectives that were established under an implicit assumption of stable climatic conditions. However, projected climatic changes render this assumption invalid. Here, we summarize general principles for management adaptations that have emerged from a major literature review. These general principles cover many topics including: (1) how to assess climate impacts to ecosystem processes that are key to management goals; (2) using management practices to support ecosystem resilience; (3) converting barriers that may inhibit management responses into opportunities for successful implementation; and (4) promoting flexible decision making that takes into account challenges of scale and thresholds. To date, the literature on management adaptations to climate change has mostly focused on strategies for bolstering the resilience of ecosystems to persist in their current states. Yet in the longer term, it is anticipated that climate change will push certain ecosystems and species beyond their capacity to recover. When managing to support resilience becomes infeasible, adaptation may require more than simply changing management practices—it may require changing management goals and managing transitions to new ecosystem states. After transitions have occurred, management will again support resilience—this time for a new ecosystem state. Thus, successful management of natural resources in the context of climate change will require recognition on the part of managers and decisions makers of the need to cycle between “managing for resilience” and “managing for change.”