Comparison of Two Types of Metapopulation Models in Real and Artificial Landscapes

Abstract: Application of metapopulation models is becoming increasingly widespread in the conservation of species in fragmented landscapes. We provide one of the first detailed comparisons of two of the most common modeling techniques, incidence function models and stage-based matrix models, and test their accuracy in predicting patch occupancy for a real metapopulation. We measured patch occupancies and demographic rates for regional populations of the Florida scrub lizard (   Sceloporus woodi ) and compared the observed occupancies with those predicted by each model. Both modeling strategies predicted patch occupancies with good accuracy ( 77–80%) and gave similar results when we compared hypothetical management scenarios involving removal of key habitat patches and degradation of habitat quality. To compare the two modeling approaches over a broader set of conditions, we simulated metapopulation dynamics for 150 artificial landscapes composed of equal-sized patches (2–1024 ha) spaced at equal distances (50–750 m). Differences in predicted patch occupancy were small to moderate (<20%) for about 74% of all simulations, but 22% of the landscapes had differences openface> 50%. Incidence function models and stage-based matrix models differ in their approaches, assumptions, and requirements for empirical data, and our findings provide evidence that the two models can produce different results. We encourage researchers to use both techniques and further examine potential differences in model output. The feasibility of obtaining data for population modeling varies widely among species and limits the modeling approaches appropriate for each species. Understanding different modeling approaches will become increasingly important as conservation programs undertake the challenge of managing for multiple species in a landscape context.     

Risk assessment in western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis): do multiple cues have additive effects?

The threat-sensitivity hypothesis predicts that prey individuals will increase antipredator behaviors as apparent predator risk increases. An implicit assumption of the threat-sensitivity hypothesis is that predator risk is additive. In other words, all characteristics of a predator that indicate risk should contribute in an additive way to determine the degree of risk-sensitive behavior. We tested this assumption in the laboratory by presenting live predators (green sunfish, Lepomis cyanellus) to groups of western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis). We examined effects of predator diet, hunger level, and size on predator avoidance and inspection behavior of mosquitofish. Both predator diet and predator hunger level were significant and additive determinants of distance maintained from a predator, resulting in a graded response to combinations of these predator cues. In contrast, whereas predator diet was the most important determinant of general avoidance distances, predator hunger level was more important in determining mosquitofish vertical distribution and inspection behavior. Thus, the relationship between predator cue and the antipredator behavior that it elicits is dependent on which cues and behaviors are examined. Our data suggest that during risky behaviors, such as predator inspection, mosquitofish rely mainly on visual cues (behavior differences between hungry and satiated predators), whereas general avoidance behavior is determined by additive responses from visual and chemical cues.     

Quality assessment of groundwater from the south-eastern Arabian Peninsula

Assessment of groundwater quality plays a significant role in the utilization of the scarce water resources globally and especially in arid regions. The increasing abstraction together with man-made contamination and seawater intrusion have strongly affected groundwater quality in the Arabia Peninsula, exemplified by the investigation given here from the United Arab Emirates, where the groundwater is seldom reviewed and assessed. In the aim of assessing current groundwater quality, we here present a comparison of chemical data linked to aquifers types. The results reveal that most of the investigated groundwater is not suitable for drinking, household, and agricultural purposes following the WHO permissible limits. Aquifer composition and climate have vital control on the water quality, with the carbonate aquifers contain the least potable water compared to the ophiolites and Quaternary clastics. Seawater intrusion along coastal regions has deteriorated the water quality and the phenomenon may become more intensive with future warming climate and rising sea level.