Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

As climate is an important driver of vegetation distribution, climate change represents an important challenge to forestry. We (1) identify prevailing bioclimatic conditions for 49 relevant forest species in Portugal and (2) assess future shifts under climate change scenarios. We compute two bioclimatic indices (aridity and thermicity) and a new composite index, at ~1 km spatial resolution, and overlap with the species’ current ranges. Locations are based on a digital inventory, while climate parameters for both recent-past (1950–2000) and future climates (2041–2060), under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are provided by a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations. Results for future scenarios highlight an overall warming and drying trend. Supramediterranean and mesomediterranean climates will be significantly reduced, while thermomediterranean climates will dramatically increase, from their almost absence in current conditions to an area coverage of ~54 % in 2041–2060 for RCP8.5. There is also a clear shift from hyper-humid and humid to sub-humid and from the latter to semi-arid climates (area coverage of ~13 % in 2041–2060 for RCP8.5). Lower thermomediterranean sub-humid to semi-arid zones will cover the southern half of Portugal. These projections identify the most vulnerable (e.g. Betula pubescens, Quercus pyrenaica and Castanea sativa) and the most adapted (e.g. Quercus suber, Q. rotundifolia, Ceratonia siliqua, Pinus pinea, Quercus coccifera) species in future climates. Current bioclimatic zones associated with Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus pinaster, economically relevant species, will be moderately reduced and relocated. Possible adaptation measures are discussed to improve forest resilience to climate change, while maintaining its economic and environmental benefits.     

Occurrence of mycotoxins in wheat grains exposed to fungicides on fusarium head blight control in southern Brazil

Mycotoxins occurrence in wheat grains impose risks to human and animal health. The southern Brazil has favorable weather conditions for Fusarium graminearum infections and consequently for mycotoxins accumulation on grains. The goal of this study was to evaluate the behavior of new wheat commercial genotypes to Fusarium Head Blight (FHB), to control performance of new fungicide formulations and their relationship with mycotoxins concentration in grains. The manly mycotoxin occurrence on wheat grains in southern Brazil was deoxynivalenol (DON). Two cultivars showed high DON concentration above the tolerance limits (>3000 μg kg^?1). Many other mycotoxins monitored presented concentrations below method detection limit. Satisfactory levels of fungicide effectiveness were achieved against F. graminearum. Some fungicides promoted a satisfactory decrease on DON accumulation in grains. The best results were obtained when prothioconazole was present. SDHI (Succinate dehydrogenase inhibitors) + QoI (Quinone outside inhibitors) fungicides showed benefic effects at FHB control at field, but it did not promote satisfactory reduction on DON contamination. Fungicides can be used satisfactory for FHB control and reduce DON contamination in grains in southern Brazil. The presence of prothioconazole should be recommended. Some genotypes showed high DON concentration and it was not directly related with FHB severity at field.     

Influence of selected cyclodextrins in sorption-desorption of chlorpyrifos,chlorothalonil, diazinon,and their main degradation products on different soils

Cyclodextrins (CDs) can improve the apparent solubility and bioavailability of a variety of organic compounds through the formation of inclusion complexes; accordingly, they are suitable for application in innovative remediation technologies of contaminated soils. However, the different interactions in the tertiary system CD/contaminant/soil matrix can affect the bioavailability of the inclusion complex through the possible sorption of CD and CD complex in the soil matrix, as well as with the potential of the sorbed CD to form the complex, concurrent with the desorption processes. This work focuses in changes produced by three different CDs in soil sorption-desorption processes of chlorpyrifos (CPF), diazinon (DZN), and chlorothalonil (CTL), and their major degradation products, 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol (TCP), 2-isopropyl-6-methyl-4-pyrimidinol, and hydroxy-chlorothalonil (OH-CTL). Cyclodextrins used were β-cyclodextrin (β-CD), methyl-β-cyclodextrin (Mβ-CD), and 2-hydroxypropyl-β-cyclodextrin (HPβ-CD). The studied soils belong to the orders Andisol, Ultisol, and Mollisol with different organic matter contents, mineral composition, and pH. The apparent sorption constants were significantly lower for the three pesticides in the presence of all CDs. The highest displacement of sorption equilibria was produced by the influence of Mβ-CD, with the most pronounced effect for CPF, a pesticide strongly sorbed on soils. The same was obtained for TCP and OH-CTL, highlighting the need to assess the risk of generating higher levels of groundwater contamination with polar metabolites if degradation rates are not controlled. The highest desorption efficiency was obtained for the systems CPF-β-CD, DZN-Mβ-CD, and CTL-Mβ-CD. Since the degree of adsorption of the complex is relevant to obtain an increase in the bioavailability of the contaminant, a distribution coefficient for the complexed pesticide in all CD–soil–pesticide system was estimated by using the apparent sorption coefficients, the stability constant for each CD–pesticide complex, and the distribution coefficients of free pesticide.     

Agave salmiana Plant Communities in Central Mexico as Affected by Commercial Use

Agave salmiana is a native plant species harvested for the commercial production of mezcal (Agave spirits) in the highlands of central Mexico. The objective of this study was to identify vegetation changes in natural communities where A. salmiana has been differentially harvested for commercial purposes. Three plant community categories were identified in the state of Zacatecas based on their history of A. salmiana utilization: short (less than 10 years of use), moderate (about 25 years), and long (60 or more years). Species cover, composition, and density were evaluated in field surveys by use category. A gradient of vegetation structure of the communities parallels the duration of A. salmiana use. A. salmiana density was greatest (3,125 plants ha⁻¹) in the short-use areas and less (892 plants ha⁻¹) in the moderate-use areas, associated with markedly greater density of shrubs (200%) and Opuntia spp. (50%) in moderate-use areas. The main shrubs were Larrea tridentata, Mimosa biuncifera, Jatropha dioica and Buddleia scordioides while the main Opuntia species were Opuntia leucotricha and Opuntia robusta. A. salmiana density was least (652 plants ha⁻¹) in the long-use areas where shrubs were less abundant but Opuntia spp. density was 25% higher than in moderate-use areas. We suggest that shrubs may increase with moderate use creating an intermediate successional stage that facilitates the establishment of Opuntia spp. Long-term Agave use is generating new plant communities dominated by Opuntia spp. (nopaleras) as a replacement of the original communities dominated by A. salmiana (magueyeras).     

Source Apportionment Using Positive Matrix Factorization on Daily Measurements of Inorganic and Organic Speciated PM(2.5)

Particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (PM(2.5)) has been linked with a wide range of adverse health effects. Determination of the sources of PM(2.5) most responsible for these health effects could lead to improved understanding of the mechanisms of such effects and more targeted regulation. This has provided the impetus for the Denver Aerosol Sources and Health (DASH) study, a multi-year source apportionment and health effects study relying on detailed inorganic and organic PM(2.5) speciation measurements.In this study, PM(2.5) source apportionment is performed by coupling positive matrix factorization (PMF) with daily speciated PM(2.5) measurements including inorganic ions, elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC), and organic molecular markers. A qualitative comparison is made between two models, PMF2 and ME2, commonly used for solving the PMF problem. Many previous studies have incorporated chemical mass balance (CMB) for organic molecular marker source apportionment on limited data sets, but the DASH data set is large enough to use multivariate factor analysis techniques such as PMF.Sensitivity of the PMF2 and ME2 models to the selection of speciated PM(2.5) components and model input parameters was investigated in depth. A combination of diagnostics was used to select an optimum, 7-factor model using one complete year of daily data with pointwise measurement uncertainties. The factors included 1) a wintertime/methoxyphenol factor, 2) an EC/sterane factor, 3) a nitrate/polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) factor, 4) a summertime/selective aliphatic factor, 5) an n-alkane factor, 6) a middle oxygenated PAH/alkanoic acid factor and 7) an inorganic ion factor. These seven factors were qualitatively linked with known PM(2.5) emission sources with varying degrees of confidence. Mass apportionment using the 7-factor model revealed the contribution of each factor to the mass of OC, EC, nitrate and sulfate. On an annual basis, the majority of OC and EC mass was associated with the summertime/selective aliphatic factor and the EC/sterane factor, respectively, while nitrate and sulfate mass were both dominated by the inorganic ion factor. This apportionment was found to vary substantially by season. Several of the factors identified in this study agree well with similar assessments conducted in St. Louis, MO and Pittsburgh, PA using PMF and organic molecular markers.     

Social participation and climate change

Social participation has been broadly analysed by comparing case studies of different types of socio-economic developments in Brazil and the United Kingdom (UK). A key objective has been to consider how effective social participation has been in incorporating society’s points of view in the decision making process. In most cases, it would appear that very little can be done by stakeholders to change big decisions on development policies that support public and private development because in reality social participation often only provides an opportunity for discussion and agreement on specific issues regarding how development will be undertaken and how stakeholders will be affected. Although Brazil and the United Kingdom have socio-economic and cultural differences, it is necessary to emphasize that education, self-organization and knowledge of civil rights are crucial for an effective social participation process. As climate change is an important topic for present and future generations and that some of the development activities analysed in this study will emit greenhouse gases, this study also attempts to investigate if climate change mitigation strategies have been integrated into the social participation process. Investigation shows that there is little evidence that climate change mitigation actions involving stakeholders have been integrated into development strategies or have been part of social participation schemes in the case studies analysed. Having said that, the study also describes positive examples of climate change mitigation actions in different parts of the world that involve local people in ‘carbon-neutral’ or ‘social-carbon’ projects and proposes the creation of a carbon-neutral committee that would be responsible for coordinating climate change mitigation measures within development proposals such as the ones analysed in this study.     

Carbon-optimised land management strategies for southern Amazonia

Regional Environmental Change -     

Evaluation of genotoxic effects of benzene and its derivatives in workers of gas stations

The search for reliable biomarkers of human exposure to benzene and its derivatives is still subject of research. Many of the proposed biomarkers have limitations ranging from the low sensitivity to the wide variability of results. Thus, the aim of our study was to assess the frequencies of chromosomal abnormalities (CA) and sister chromatid exchanges (SCE) in workers of gas stations, with (cases, n?=?19) and without (local controls, n?=?6) risk of exposure to benzene and its derivatives, comparing them with the results from the general population (external controls, n?=?38). The blood dosages of benzene, toluene, and xylenes were measured in all participants. Blood solvent levels were compared with the findings obtained in cytogenetic evaluation and a research protocol which included data of the workplace, lifestyle, and health of the individuals. We did not detect the presence of benzene and its derivatives and did not find chromosomal damage that may be associated with the gas station activity in cases. Moreover, although we found an association of increased SCE and the working time in the local controls, the values found for SCE are within normal limits. Thus, our evaluation of SCE and CA reflected the levels of benzene and its derivatives observed in the blood. We believe, therefore, that SCE and CA may actually constitute possible tests for the evaluation of these exposures. However, we believe that further studies, including individuals at risk, are important to confirm this assertion.     

Seasonal trends of atmospheric nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide over North Santa Clara, Cuba

Atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) levels were monitored simultaneously by means of Radiello passive samplers at six sites of Santa Clara city, Cuba, in the cold and the warm seasons in 2010. The dissolved ionic forms of NO₂ and SO₂ as nitrate and sulfite plus sulfate, respectively, were determined by means of ion chromatography. Analysis of NO₂ as nitrite was also performed by UV–Vis spectrophotometry. For NO₂, significant t tests show good agreement between the results of IC and UV–Vis methods. The NO₂ and SO₂ concentrations peaked in the cold season, while their minimum levels were experienced in the warm season. The pollutant levels do not exceed the maximum allowable limit of the Cuban Standard 39:1999, i.e., 40 μg/m³ and 50 μg/m³ for NO₂ and SO₂, respectively. The lowest pollutant concentrations obtained in the warm season can be attributed to an increase in their removal via precipitation (scavenging) while to the decreased traffic density and industrial emission during the summer holidays (e.g., July and August).