The FLASH Project: using lightning data to better understand and predict flash floods

The FLASH project was implemented from 2006 to 2010 under the EU FP6 framework. The project focused on using lightning observations to better understand and predict convective storms that result in flash floods. As part of the project 23 case studies of flash floods in the Mediterranean region were examined. For the analysis of these storms lightning data from the ZEUS network were used together with satellite derived rainfall estimates in order to understand the storm development and electrification. In addition, these case studies were simulated using mesoscale meteorological models to better understand the meteorological and synoptic conditions leading up to these intense storms. As part of this project tools for short term predictions (nowcasts) of intense convection across the Mediterranean and Europe, and long term forecasts (a few days) of the likelihood of intense convection were developed. The project also focused on educational outreach through our website http://flashproject.org supplying real time lightning observations, real time experimental nowcasts, forecasts and educational materials. While flash floods and intense thunderstorms cannot be prevented as the climate changes, long-range regional lightning networks can supply valuable data, in real time, for warning end-users and stakeholders of imminent intense rainfall and possible flash floods.     

Valuing externalities from water supply: Status quo,choice complexity and individual random effects in panel kernel logit analysis of choice experiments

Choice experiments are often implemented with choice sets including one alternative depicting the status quo. Utility from status quo is experienced by the respondent, while utility associated with experimentally designed hypothetical alternatives is only conjectured by respondents. The effects of explicitly accounting for such a difference in the econometric analysis of the data are often unreported, or limited to fitting a ‘status quo’ constant. The paper proposes a model that explicitly accounts for these effects and attempts their decomposition using data from two choice modelling exercises designed to value the provision of environmental goods. Preferences for change versus status quo are explored with standard specifications along with a less usually applied error component analysis via mixed logit. The results suggest that alternatives offering changes from status quo do not share the same preference structure as the status quo alternative, and that estimates of spread parameters in zero-mean error components can be decomposed conditional on respondents' socio-economic characteristics. It is argued that these findings have implications for practitioners and their stance towards the strategies for the econometric analysis of choice modelling data for the purpose of valuation.     

Integrating emergy evaluation and geographic information systems for monitoring resource use in the Abruzzo region (Italy)

This paper presents an application of an environmental accounting method, namely emergy evaluation, developed for the monitoring and assessment of environmental resource use by local communities in the Abruzzo Region (Italy). Once quantified and classified according to their origin (renewable or non-renewable, local or external), emergy flows were elaborated through a geographic information system (GIS) that allowed us to represent their spatial distribution throughout the region. Outcomes took the form of patterns in which different emergy intensities, namely empower (unit: seJ yr^?1), were represented through a graduated grey-scale and visualized on a cartographic basis. The concentration of emergy flows, depending on the activity of local communities, showed variable levels of environmental load in different areas. In particular, spatial zones with homogeneous values of empower density (unit: seJ yr^?1 km^?2) – high, medium and low – were detected in order to identify areas with a similar “thermodynamic” nature, emergy being a thermodynamics based function. This allowed for the representation, at a glance, of a kind of geography that mirrors the behavior of a population settled in an area as additional information for investigating the effects of the use of urban structures and functions and improving our understanding of regional systems. A combined use of emergy evaluation and GIS could thus provide a complementary view of a territorial system and inform policy makers for planning specific strategies of future development.     

Soil carbon dynamics in a Mediterranean forest during the Kyoto Protocol commitment periods

The purpose of the present work is to asses the possibility of detecting changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) at the end of the 5-years of the first Commitment Period (CP) of the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nation’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (1 January, 2008–31 December, 2012), by both direct measurement and the use of an opportunely evaluated SOC model, CENTURY. The investigated soil is young, developed since 28 years on virtually C-free spoil banks and under the influence of two managed forest stands, one a mix of English oak (Quercus robur L.) and Italian alder (Alnus cordata Loisel.) and the other pure English oak. The SOC stock of either stand was monitored since the time the stands were planted in 1981, and it was used together with other parameters for the model evaluation, while the future projections for the end of the first (2012) and second (2017) CP were made according to two extreme IPCC climatic scenarios: A1F1, the most dramatic, and B2, among the less impacting. Direct SOC measurements performed at the beginning and at the end of a time frame equivalent to a commitment period (2004–2008) had not shown significant variations in either stands. Compared to the 2008 SOC stock, in both stands the model shows variations at the end of the first CP from 0.7 to 1.8 Mg C ha⁻¹ for the A1F1 scenario and from 0.3 to 1.7 Mg C ha⁻¹ for the B2. These variations are within the standard deviations of the C stocks measured in 2008. On the contrary, at the end of the second CP, the modelled SOC increments range from 2.5 to 3.6 Mg C ha⁻¹ (A1F1) or from 1.9 to 3.4 Mg C ha⁻¹ (B2), indicating the possibility to detect the SOC changes by direct measurement, since the values well agree with the minimum detectable variation estimated for both sites in 3.3–4.5 Mg C ha⁻¹. This work shows that SOC stock changes measured directly in the field can be minimal at the end of both CPs, and that CENTURY well simulates the SOC dynamics of the stands. The use of such a model, validated at long-term experimental sites, hence represents an effective tool for estimating future changes in SOC amounts in support of direct measurements when a short period of time, such as the CP, is considered.     

Biodiversity of epiphytic lichens and air pollution in the town of Siena (central Italy).

The results of a biomonitoring survey carried out in the town of Siena (central Italy) using the biodiversity of epiphytic lichens as indicator of air pollution are reported. The general picture was rather good, with more than 60% of the study area being in the categories "semi-natural" or "natural" according to a calibrated scale of environmental naturality/alteration. Compared with the situation of 1995, ameliorating conditions were found as a result of an improvement in air quality over time.