The Predatory Bird Monitoring Scheme: identifying chemical risks to top predators in Britain

The Predatory Bird Monitoring Scheme (PBMS) is a long term (>40 y), UK-wide, exposure monitoring scheme that determines the concentration of selected pesticides and pollutants in the livers and eggs of predatory birds. This paper describes how the PBMS works, and in particular highlights some of the key scientific and policy drivers for monitoring contaminants in predatory birds and describes the specific aims, scope, and methods of the PBMS. We also present previously unpublished data that illustrates how the PBMS has been used to demonstrate the success of mitigation measures in reversing chemical-mediated impacts; identify and evaluate chemical threats to species of high conservation value; and finally to inform and refine monitoring methodologies. In addition, we discuss how such schemes can also address wider conservation needs.     

Effect of climate change on flux of N and C: air-land-freshwater-marine links: synthesis

Projected climate change might increase the deposition of nitrogen by about 10% to seminatural ecosystems in southern Norway. At Storgama, increased precipitation in the growing season increased the fluxes of total organic carbon (TOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON) in proportion to the water flux. In winter, soil temperatures near 0 degrees C, common under a snowpack, induced higher runoff of inorganic nitrogen (N) and lower runoff of TOC. By contrast, soil temperatures below freezing, caused by little snow accumulation (expected in a warmer world), reduced runoff of inorganic N, TON, and TOC. Long-term monitoring data showed that reduced snowpack can cause either decreased or increased N leaching, depending on interactions with N deposition, soil temperature regime, and winter discharge. Seasonal variation in TOC was mainly climatically controlled, whereas deposition of sulfate and nitrate (NO3) explained the long-term TOC increase. Upscaling to the river basin scale showed that the annual flux of NO3 will remain unchanged in response to climate change projections.     

Increased thyroid volume, prevalence of thyroid antibodies and impaired fasting glucose in young adults from organochlorine cocktail polluted area: outcome of transgenerational transmission?

In 137 females (F) and 94 males (M) aged 21-35 years from organochlorines (OCs) polluted area (POLL) increased thyroid volume (ThV), prevalence of antibodies to thyroperoxidase (TPOab), thyrotropin receptor (TRab) and of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) was found compared to 116 F and 107 M from background pollution area (BCGR). In F and M from POLL also strikingly increased level of PCBs, DDE and HCB was found. Such findings were compared to the generation of their parents aged 41-55 years consisting of 320F/213M from POLL and 406F/231M from BCGR. However, in spite of strikingly lower level of those OCs in young adults from POLL, they showed about the same prevalence of adverse health signs as the old generation. From such reason 44 young F and 40 young M with lowest PCBs level from POLL were selected to obtain nearly the same PCB level as found in all young F and M from BCGR. In such PCB adjusted groups the prevalence of TPOab, TRab, IFG and increased ThV was still significantly higher than that in all young subjects from BCGR. At the same time, also the level of DDE and HCB in such PCBs adjusted groups was considerably lower. It was concluded that such adverse effects in young adults from POLL possibly did not result from their actual OCs levels, but very likely from their exposure to high OCs levels of their mothers during their prenatal and perinatal life. Thus, the data may be compatible with present views on transgenerational transmission of endocrine disruptors action.     

A novel approach to predict aquatic toxicity from molecular structure

The main aim of the study was to develop quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for the prediction of aquatic toxicity using atom-based non-stochastic and stochastic linear indices. The used dataset consist of 392 benzene derivatives, separated into training and test sets, for which toxicity data to the ciliate Tetrahymena pyriformis were available. Using multiple linear regression, two statistically significant QSAR models were obtained with non-stochastic (R2=0.791 and s=0.344) and stochastic (R2=0.799 and s=0.343) linear indices. A leave-one-out (LOO) cross-validation procedure was carried out achieving values of q2=0.781 (scv=0.348) and q2=0.786 (scv=0.350), respectively. In addition, a validation through an external test set was performed, which yields significant values of Rpred2 of 0.762 and 0.797. A brief study of the influence of the statistical outliers in QSAR's model development was also carried out. Finally, our method was compared with other approaches implemented in the Dragon software achieving better results. The non-stochastic and stochastic linear indices appear to provide an interesting alternative to costly and time-consuming experiments for determining toxicity.     

Determination of the origin of groundwater nitrate at an air weapons range using the dual isotope approach

Nitrate is one of the most common contaminants in shallow groundwater, and many sources may contribute to the nitrate load within an aquifer. Groundwater nitrate plumes have been detected at several ammunition production sites. However, the presence of multiple potential sources and the lack of existing isotopic data concerning explosive degradation-induced nitrate constitute a limitation when it comes to linking both types of contaminants. On military training ranges, high nitrate concentrations in groundwater were reported for the first time as part of the hydrogeological characterization of the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range (CLAWR), Alberta, Canada. Explosives degradation is thought to be the main source of nitrate contamination at CLAWR, as no other major source is present. Isotopic analyses of N and O in nitrate were performed on groundwater samples from the unconfined and confined aquifers; the dual isotopic analysis approach was used in order to increase the chances of identifying the source of nitrate. The isotopic ratios for the groundwater samples with low nitrate concentration suggested a natural origin with a strong contribution of anthropogenic atmospheric NOx. For the samples with nitrate concentration above the expected background level the isotopic ratios did not correspond to any source documented in the literature. Dissolved RDX samples were degraded in the laboratory and results showed that all reproduced degradation processes released nitrate with a strong fractionation. Laboratory isotopic values for RDX-derived NO(3)(-) produced a trend of high delta(18)O-low delta(15)N to low delta(18)O-high delta(15)N, and groundwater samples with nitrate concentrations above the expected background level appeared along this trend. Our results thus point toward a characteristic field of isotopic ratios for nitrate being derived from the degradation of RDX.     

Evaluation of geochemical associations as a screening tool for identifying anthropogenic trace metal contamination

Geochemical association plots are used as a screening tool for environmental site assessments and use empirical log–log relationships between total trace metal concentrations and concentrations of a major (i.e., reference) soil metal constituent, such as iron (Fe), to discern sites with naturally elevated trace metal levels from sites with anthropogenic contamination. Log–log relationships have been consistently observed between trace metal and reference metal concentrations and are often considered constant. Consequently, we used a regional geochemistry data set to evaluate background trace metal/Fe log–log associations across soils with highly diverse composition. Our results indicate that, although geochemical associations may be proportional, they significantly differ across predominant United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) soil orders. This suggests that highly complex interactions between soil-forming factors and variable secondary clay mineral composition affect the ratio of trace metals to Fe concentrations in soils. Also, intra-order variability in trace metal/Fe ratios generally ranged multiple orders of magnitude which suggest that the order level of the USDA soil taxonomic system is insufficient to reasonably classify background trace metal concentrations. Consequently, geochemical association plots are a useful screening tool for environmental site assessments, but ubiquitous application of generic background metal data sets could result in erroneous conclusions. Because significantly different ratios were observed across predominant USDA soil orders, an agglomerative clustering technique was used to elucidate hierarchical patterns of association. We present these results as a mechanism to aid environmental assessors in screening candidate background metal data sets for their applicability to site-specific soil composition; although site-specific background metal data should be utilized if ample pristine reference sites with similar (i.e., sub-order) soil composition can be identified and sampled.     

Energy Security: A Robust Optimization Approach to Design a Robust European Energy Supply via TIAM-WORLD

Energy supply routes to a given region are subject to random events, resulting in partial or total closure of a route (corridor). For instance, a pipeline may be subject to technical problems that reduce its capacity. Or, oil supply by tanker may be reduced for political reasons or because of equipment mishaps at the point of origin or again, by a conscious decision by the supplier in order to obtain economic benefits. The purpose of this article is to formulate a simplified version of the above issue that mainly addresses long-term uncertainties. The formulation is done via a version of the TIAM-WORLD Integrated Model, modified to implement the approach of robust optimization. In our case, the approach can be interpreted as a revival of chance-constrained programming under the name of distributionally robust, or ambiguous, chance-constrained programming. We apply the approach to improve the security of supply to the European Energy system. The resulting formulation provides several interesting features regarding the security of EU energy supply and has also the advantage to be numerically tractable.     

Correlations in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations in UK ambient air and implications for source apportionment

The extent of correlation in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentration data obtained by the UK PAH Monitoring and Analysis Air Quality Network from March 2008 to November 2010 has been assessed. Application of principal component analysis (PCA) to the dataset has revealed that the concentrations of the vast majority of PAHs are very highly correlated. The use of diagnostic PAH ratios (including a new benzo[b]naph[2,1-d]thiophene/benzo[a]pyrene diagnostic ratio), and a novel 'combined diagnostic ratio - PCA' approach has revealed information about the main sources of PAH at individual Network sites, allowing the sites to be grouped in terms of those influenced by solid fuel use, industry and traffic, and those of an urban or rural nature. Solid fuel use has also been delineated from other fuel burning. Conclusions are drawn about a number of UK PAH Network sites - four sites are shown to be influenced significantly by solid fuel use, and the sites in South Wales and at London Marylebone Road are found to be located in distinct and unusual PAH pollution climates - the identification of a unique PAH pollution climate in South Wales is a key and novel conclusion of the work.