Global warming and flowering times in Thoreau's Concord: a community perspective

As a result of climate change, many plants are now flowering measurably earlier than they did in the past. However, some species' flowering times have changed much more than others. Data at the community level can clarify the variation in flowering responses to climate change. In order to determine how North American species' flowering times respond to climate, we analyzed a series of previously unstudied records of the dates of first flowering for over 500 plant taxa in Concord, Massachusetts, USA. These records began with six years of observations by the famous naturalist Henry David Thoreau from 1852 to 1858, continued with 16 years of observations by the botanist Alfred Hosmer in 1878 and 1888-1902, and concluded with our own observations in 2004, 2005, and 2006. From 1852 through 2006, Concord warmed by 2.4 degrees C due to global climate change and urbanization. Using a subset of 43 common species, we determined that plants are now flowering seven days earlier on average than they did in Thoreau's times. Plant flowering times were most correlated with mean temperatures in the one or two months just before flowering and were also correlated with January temperatures. Summer-flowering species showed more interannual variation in flowering time than did spring-flowering species, but the flowering times of spring-flowering species correlated more strongly to mean monthly temperatures. In many cases, such as within the genera Betula and Solidago, closely related, co-occurring species responded to climate very differently from one another. The differences in flowering responses to warming could affect relationships in plant communities as warming continues. Common St. John's wort (Hypericum perforatum) and highbush blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum) are particularly responsive to changes in climate, are common across much of the United States, and could serve as indicators of biological responses to climate change. We discuss the need for researchers to be aware, when using data sets involving multiple observers, of how varying methodologies, sample sizes, and sampling intensities affect the results. Finally, we emphasize the importance of using historical observations, like those of Thoreau and Hosmer, as sources of long-term data and to increase public awareness of biological responses to climate change.     

Estimating survival rates of uncatchable animals: the myth of high juvenile mortality in reptiles

Survival rates of juvenile reptiles are critical population parameters but are difficult to obtain through mark-recapture programs because these small, secretive animals are rarely caught. This scarcity has encouraged speculation that survival rates of juveniles are very low, and we test this prediction by estimating juvenile survival rates indirectly. A simple mathematical model calculates the annual juvenile survival rate needed to maintain a stable population size, using published data on adult survival rates, reproductive output, and ages at maturity in 109 reptile populations encompassing 57 species. Counter to prediction, estimated juvenile survival rates were relatively high (on average, only about 13% less than those of conspecific adults) and highly correlated with adult survival rates. Overall, survival rates during both juvenile and adult life were higher in turtles than in snakes, and higher in snakes than in lizards. As predicted from life history theory, rates of juvenile survival were higher in species that produce large offspring, and higher in viviparous squamates than in oviparous species. Our analyses challenge the widely held belief that juvenile reptiles have low rates of annual survival and suggest instead that sampling problems and the elusive biology of juvenile reptiles have misled researchers in this respect.     

The influence of contrasting life history traits and oceanic processes on genetic structuring of rabbitfish populations Siganus argenteus and Siganus fuscescens along the eastern Philippine coasts

Genetic variability and structuring of rabbitfish populations with contrasting life histories, Siganus argenteus and Siganus fuscescens were determined using allozyme analysis. A total of 13–14 polymorphic loci were examined from samples collected in 2002 and 2003 from eight reefs representing 25 populations north (Kuroshio Current) and south (Mindanao Current) of the bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current along the eastern Philippine coast. S. fuscescens populations (H _OBS = 0.085) showed higher heterozygosity than S. argenteus (H _OBS = 0.053), consistent with predictions of the neutral theory for demersal egg spawners compared to pelagic egg spawners. The generally lower genetic variability of Kuroshio populations may be due to greater environmental disturbance affecting larval mortality and recruitment success. There was no significant overall population genetic structuring for S. argenteus (F _ST = 0.01485, P > 0.05) compared to S. fuscescens (F _ST = 0.03275, P < 0.05). The latter species showed highly significant genetic structuring among Kuroshio and Mindanao Current populations in both 2002 and 2003 (F _CT = 0.08120, P < 0.05; F _CT = 0.07500, P < 0.05, respectively), as well as among populations within regions. This conforms to expectations of correlations between observed population genetic structure and life history features related to dispersal potential and gene flow. However, there were significant temporal (i.e., 2002 vs. 2003 samples) genetic variations for both S. fuscescens (F _CT = 0.08542, P < 0.05) and S. argenteus (F _CT = 0.06330, P < 0.05), which may reflect interannual variability in recruitment success. Differences in population spatial genetic patterns between the two reef fish species suggest that broad scale physical factors (e.g. NEC bifurcation) and regional environmental perturbations (e.g. incidence of typhoons) affect population genetic structure of sympatric congeneric species with different life histories differently. Finer scale ecological processes, which affect larval dispersal and recruitment (e.g., local hydrographic features, distribution of habitats), particularly in the Mindanao Current region, exert more influence on structuring populations of S. fuscescens.     

Net primary production, growth, and standing crop of Macrocystis pyrifera in Southern California

Marine macroalgae are believed to be among the most productive autotrophs in the world. However, relatively little information exists about spatial and temporal variation in net primary production (NPP) by these organisms. The data presented here are being collected to investigate patterns and causes of variation in NPP by the giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, which is believed to be one of the fastest growing autotrophs on earth. The standing crop and loss rates of M. pyrifera have been measured monthly in permanent plots at three sites in the Santa Barbara Channel, USA. Collection of these data began in June 2002 and is ongoing. Seasonal estimates of NPP and growth rate are made by combining the field data with a model of kelp dynamics. The purpose of this Data Paper is to make available a time series of M. pyrifera NPP, growth, and standing crop that is appropriate for examining seasonal and interannual patterns across multiple sites. Data on plant density in each plot and censuses of fronds on tagged plants at each site are also made available here. NPP, mass-specific growth rate, and standing crop are presented in four different metrics (wet mass, dry mass, carbon mass, and nitrogen mass) to facilitate comparisons with previous studies of M. pyrifera and with NPP measured in other ecosystems. Analyses of these data reveal seasonal cycles in growth and standing crop as well as substantial differences in M. pyrifera NPP among sites and years.     

Comparative foraging ecology and ecological niche of a superabundant tropical seabird: the sooty tern Sterna fuscata in the southwest Indian Ocean

Over 6-million pairs of sooty terns Sterna fuscata breed once a year in the southwest Indian Ocean, mostly on three islands of the Mozambique Channel (Europa, Juan de Nova and Glorieuses) and in the Seychelles region. Seasonal reproduction in either winter or summer is the dominant strategy in the area, but non-seasonal reproduction also occurred in some places like at Glorieuses Archipelago. The feeding ecology of the sooty tern was investigated during the breeding seasons to determine whether terns showed significant differences in their trophic ecology between locations. Regurgitations were analyzed to describe the diet of individuals when breeding, and stable isotopes and mercury concentrations were used to temporally integrate over the medium-term of the trophic ecology of both adults and chicks. Overall, the diet was composed of fish, flying squid and fish larvae in different proportions. At Europa and Aride in the Seychelles, where winter reproduction occurs, large epipelagic prey like flying fish or squid dominated the diet. At Juan de Nova, sooty terns reproduce in summer and rely mostly on fish larvae. At Glorieuses (non-seasonal breeding), the diet was intermediate with fish larvae and flying squid being important prey items. The stable-carbon and nitrogen isotope values in blood confirm the differences observed in dietary analysis, and demonstrate different feeding strategies between colonies. δ¹³C values of feathers showed spatial segregation between birds from the Mozambique Channel and the Seychelles region. Terns from the Seychelles had also higher δ¹⁵N values. Feather δ¹³C values also suggest a significant shift from summer to wintering habitat for birds from Juan de Nova. This study emphasizes the high phenotypic plasticity of the species, which may explain its numerical dominance in all tropical waters of the World’s Ocean.     

Network structure and parasite transmission in a group living lizard,the gidgee skink, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Egernia stokesii</Emphasis>

Gidgee skinks (Egernia stokesii) form large social aggregations in rocky outcrops across the Flinders Ranges in South Australia. Group members share refuges (rock crevices), which may promote parasite transmission. We measured connectivity of individuals in networks constructed from patterns of common crevice use and observed patterns of parasitism by three blood parasites (Hemolivia, Schellackia and Plasmodium) and an ectoparasitic tick (Amblyomma vikirri). Data came from a 1-year mark-recapture study of four populations. Transmission networks were constructed to represent possible transmission pathways among lizards. Two lizards that used the same refuge within an estimated transmission period were considered connected in the transmission network. An edge was placed between them, directed towards the individual that occupied the crevice last. Social networks, a sub-set of same-day only associations, were small and highly fragmented compared with transmission networks, suggesting that non-synchronous crevice use leads to more transmission opportunities than direct social association. In transmission networks, lizards infested by ticks were connected to more other tick-infested lizards than uninfected lizards. Lizards infected by ticks and carrying multiple blood parasite infections were in more connected positions in the network than lizards without ticks or with one or no blood parasites. Our findings suggest higher levels of network connectivity may increase the risk of becoming infected or that parasites influence lizard behaviour and consequently their position in the network. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. This contribution is part of the special issue “Social Networks: new perspectives” (Guest Editors: J. Krause, D. Lusseau and R. James).     

An agent-based model for simulating trading of multi-species fisheries quota

Individual transferable quotas (ITQs) are increasingly seen as a way to make fisheries more profitable and halt over-capitalisation. ITQs allocate to users of a resource a share of a total allowable catch (TAC) which they are free to use, lease, or sell. We outline an approach to modelling the effect of an ITQ system in a multi-species, multi-sector fishery and apply it to the Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery (CRFFF) in Queensland, Australia. An ITQ model, based on the assumption that operators seek to maximize profits, simulates the use of tradeable quota units by operators in the fishery, taking account of the initial quota allocation to operators, seasonal fish prices and individual operator variable costs, their fishing efficiency and experience, and constraints on vessel movements. Rationalization of the fishery is predicted to occur under an ITQ system for the CRFFF, which will lead to reductions in effort, increases in profits, and changes over time in quota prices. The ecological consequences of transferable quota in the multi-species fishery are seen in the catch and discard levels of the less profitable species, even though a TAC was set. This had flow-on effects on biomass. For example, simulations showed that the TAC for the primary target species, coral trout, was used more fully than that for a less valuable target species, red throat emperor, and that this was achieved through increased discarding of red throat emperor. Catches of both coral trout and red throat emperor that were derived from the model were higher than those recently observed in the fishery. The effort predicted by the model, however, closely approximated the actual effort observed in the fishery following implementation of ITQ management.     

Combining a generic process-based productivity model and a statistical classification method to predict the presence and absence of tree species in the Pacific Northwest,U.S.A.

Although long-lived tree species experience considerable environmental variation over their life spans, their geographical distributions reflect sensitivity mainly to mean monthly climatic conditions. We introduce an approach that incorporates a physiologically based growth model to illustrate how a half-dozen tree species differ in their responses to monthly variation in four climatic-related variables: water availability, deviations from an optimum temperature, atmospheric humidity deficits, and the frequency of frost. Rather than use climatic data directly to correlate with a species’ distribution, we assess the relative constraints of each of the four variables as they affect predicted monthly photosynthesis for Douglas-fir, the most widely distributed species in the region. We apply an automated regression-tree analysis to create a suite of rules, which differentially rank the relative importance of the four climatic modifiers for each species, and provide a basis for predicting a species’ presence or absence on 3737 uniformly distributed U.S. Forest Services’ Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field survey plots. Results of this generalized rule-based approach were encouraging, with weighted accuracy, which combines the correct prediction of both presence and absence on FIA survey plots, averaging 87%. A wider sampling of climatic conditions throughout the full range of a species’ distribution should improve the basis for creating rules and the possibility of predicting future shifts in the geographic distribution of species.     

Larval alarm pheromones as a potential control for invasive cane toads (Bufo marinus) in tropical Australia

Novel approaches to control invasive species are urgently needed. Cane toads (Bufo marinus) are large, highly toxic anurans that are spreading rapidly through tropical Australia. Injured toad larvae produce an alarm pheromone that elicits rapid avoidance by conspecifics but not by frog larvae. Experiments in outdoor ponds show that repeated exposure to the pheromone reduced toad tadpole survival rates (by >50%) and body mass at metamorphosis (by 20%). The alarm pheromone did not induce tadpoles to seek shelter, but accelerated ontogenetic differentiation. Perhaps reflecting mortality of weaker individuals during larval life, growth rates post-metamorphosis were higher in animals emerging from the pheromone exposure treatment than from the control treatment. Nonetheless, body size differentials established at metamorphosis persisted through the first 8 days of post-metamorphic life. We will need substantial additional research before evaluating whether the alarm pheromone provides a way to reduce cane toad recruitment in nature, but our field trials are encouraging in this respect.     

SPATIAL VARIATIONS OF WATER LOSS DURING DROUGH A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: A regional water conservation system for drought management involves many uncertain factors. Water received from precipitation may stay on the ground surface, evaporate back into the atmosphere, or infiltrate into the ground. Reliable estimates of the amount of evapotranspiration and infiltration are not available for a large basin, especially during periods of drought. By applying a geographic information system, this study develops procedures to investigate spatial variations of unavailable water for given levels of drought severity. Levels of drought severity are defined by truncated values of monthly precipitation and daily streamflow to reflect levels of water availability. The greater the truncation level, the lower the precipitation or streamflow. Truncation levels of monthly precipitation are recorded in depth of water while those of daily streamflow are converted into monthly equivalent water depths. Truncation levels of precipitation and streamflow treated as regionalized variables are spatially interpolated by the unbiased minimum variance estimation. The interpolated results are vector values of precipitation and streamflow at a grid of points covering the studied basin. They are then converted into raster‐based values and expressed graphically. The image subtraction operation is used to subtract the image of streamflow from that of precipitation at their corresponding level of drought severity. It is done on a cell‐by‐cell basis resulting in new attribute values to form the spatial image representing a spatial distribution of potential water loss at a given level of drought severity.