International Workshop on Sustainable Forestry Management: Monitoring and Verification of Greenhouse Gases - Summary Statement

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change -     

巴西亚马孙流域热带森林的开垦与大豆生产:以朗多尼亚州维列纳市为例

近来巴西大豆生产的增长引发了环境保护团体以及一些学者对于亚马孙盆地的热带自然环境正在向大豆种植地转换的关注.大豆生产的支持者则认为大豆是区域的一种可行性农产品;对于环境的关注是没有根据的,因为新的大豆种植地正在替代已经被砍伐的林地或者是转换了的土地.两种观点虽被提出却都没有对大豆生产扩充区的土地利用与土地覆被(LULC)状况进行过综合研究与估量.本案例研究是在巴西的朗多尼亚州,亚马孙盆地西南部的维列纳市(Vimena),通过遥感手段对1996～2001年以来该市大豆种植面积的大幅度增加所伴随的土地利用与土地覆被变化状况进行评估.结果表明虽然森林变成了大豆生产基地,但是大部分的大豆生产的增长归功于对已有土地的微量扩充、已伐林地的转换以及更高的单位产量.     

Climatic variations in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea area

A very dry climate which prevailed during the last glacial maximum of the Pleistocene from India to the Sahara, was replaced by variable weather conditions with alternating more or less humid phases, starting from the Pleistocene-Holocene transition period and lasting up to about 3000 years ago, when present arid conditions set in. A particularly wet phase is recognized throughout the region some 5000 years ago. Phase shifts within the region and in particular changes in rain distribution patterns, are interpreted as due to shifting spheres of influence of the monsoonal circulation, of Atlantic depressions and moisture originating from the Mediterranean Sea. The condition of the Mediterranean Sea itself, which is influenced by runoff and melt waters from the European Continent and by the Nile floods, as well as by the eustatic sea-level changes, is not a good indicator of local climate conditions.     

Influence of Methodology and Assumptions on Reported National Carbon Flux Inventories: An Illustration from the Canadian Forest Sector

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed guidelines to standardize the international reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals by signatory nations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. With regard to forest sector carbon fluxes, the IPCC guidelines require only that those fluxes directly associated with human activities (i.e., harvesting and land-use change) be reported. In Canada, the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS2) has been used to assess carbon fluxes from the entire forest sector. This model accounts for carbon fluxes associated with both anthropogenic and natural disturbances, such as wild fires and insects. We combined model results for the period 1985 to 1989 with additional data to compile seven different national carbon flux inventories for the forest sector. These inventories incorporate different system components under a variety of seemingly plausible assumptions, some of which are encouraged refinements to the default flux inventory described in the IPCC guidelines. The resulting estimated net carbon fluxes varied from a net removal of 185,000 kt carbon per year of the inventory period to a netemission of 89,000 kt carbon per year. Following the default procedures in the IPCC guidelines, while using the best available national data, produced an inventory with a net removal of atmospheric carbon. Adding the effect of natural disturbances to that inventory reversed the sign of the net flux resulting in a substantial emission. Including the carbon fluxes associated with root biomass in the first inventory increased the magnitude of the estimated net removal. The variability of these results emphasizes the need for a systems approach in constructing a flux inventory. We argue that the choice of which fluxes to include in the inventory should be based on the importance of these fluxes to the overall carbon budget and not on the perceived ease with which flux estimates can be obtained. The results of this analysis also illustrate two specific points. Even those Canadian forests which are most free from direct human interactions—forests in which no commercial harvesting occurs—are not in equilibrium, and their contribution to national carbon fluxes should be included in the reported flux inventory. Moreover, those forest areas that are subject to direct management are still substantially impacted by natural disturbances. The critical effect of inventory methodology and assumptions on inventory results has important ramifications for efforts to “monitor” and “verify” programs aimed at mitigating global carbon emissions.