ESTIMATING CENTRAL TENDENCY FROM UNCENSORED TRACE LEVEL MEASUREMENTS1

ABSTRACT: The statistical analysis of data which have trace level measurements has traditionally been a two-step process in which data are first censored using criteria based on measurement precision, and then analyzed with statistical methods for censored data. The process might be more informative if data were left uncensored. In this paper, information loss attributable to censoring and measurement noise are assessed by comparing the sample mean and median of uncensored measurements with a log regression mean and median based on censored data. Measurements are derived from lognormal parent distributions which have random variability characteristic of trace level measurement. The relative performance of estimators used with error-free samples and with samples having measurement noise can be explained by differences between the probability distributions of parents and measurements. Measurement introduces bias and dispersion and transforms lognormal parent distributions toward greater symmetry. Estimates using uncensored data are less biased and more accurate than the log regression mean and median when censoring exceeds about 50 percent, and are not much worse at any fraction censored. For data with many (80 percent) results below the limit of detection, bias may be quite severe.     

EFFECTS OF LOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKE ON SURFACE WATERS IN WADDELL VALLEY1

ABSTRACT: Waddell Creek is a perennial stream near Santa Cruz, California, which discharges into the Pacific Ocean about 38 km from the epicenter of the Loma Prieta earthquake (October 17, 1989, M 7.1). The earthquake caused no significant changes or damage to structures or surface features in the area, but was followed by an order of magnitude transient increase in discharge of Waddell Creek and nearby springs. The transients approximate a step rise followed by an exponential recession with time constants of from 37 to 59 days. The flow recession pattern of Waddell Creek was obscured by heavy rains after about 50 days; however, the springs maintained an exponential recession with minimal rain interference for periods of several time constants, then abruptly ceased flowing. A comparison of the pre-quake and post-quake chemical signature of one of the springs shows only minor changes in water chemistry indicating a common source for pre- and post-quake waters. Increased permeability of the subsurface ground material appears to be the most probable cause of the hydrologic changes. Post-seismic reduction of permeability has not been observed or inferred.     

GROUND AND SURFACE WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF NORTH CAROLINA SANITARY LANDFILLS1

ABSTRACT: Ground and surface water quality monitoring data from 71 municipal sanitary landfills in North Carolina were analyzed to determine the nature and extent of current contamination problems and identify any common characteristics associated with this contamination. A total of 322 surface and 411 ground water quality records were analyzed using the SAS data system. Almost all the landfill records included inorganic and heavy metal analyses while approximately half of the records also included organic analyses by CC/MS. Our analysis indicates that landfills are having measurable impacts on ground and surface water quality, but these impacts may not be as severe as is commonly assumed. Statistically significant increases were detected in the average concentrations in ground water and downstream surface water samples when compared to upstream surface water samples. The largest percentage increases were observed for zinc, turbidity, total organic carbon, conductivity, total dissolved solids, and lead. Violations of ground water quality standards for heavy metals and hazardous organic compounds were detected at 53 percent of the landfills where adequate data existed. The moat common heavy metal violations were for lead (18 percent), chromium (18 percent), zinc (6 percent), cadmium (6 percent), and arsenic (6 percent) (percentage of landfills violating shown in parenthesis). The organic compounds that appear to pose the greatest threat to ground water are the chlorinated solvents (8 percent), petroleum derived hydrocarbons (8 percent), and pesticides (5 percent). A comparison of monitoring data from sanitary landfills and secondary wastewater treatment plants suggests that the concentrations of heavy metal and organic pollutants discharged to surface waters from these two sources are similar.     

LONGITUDINAL AND SEASONAL WATER CHEMISTRY VARIATIONS IN A NORTHERN APPALACHIAN STREAM1

ABSTRACT: Quaker Run, a fourth order stream located in southwestern New York State, exhibits a highly unusual chemical gradient along its upper reaches. Weekly water samples showed an increase in the mean annual pH from 5.07 to 7.01 along a stretch of only 2.2 km. Mean alkalinity, calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, nitrate-nitrite-nitrogen, silica, and conductivity also increased appreciably over this distance. The study area receives some of the most highly acidic atmospheric deposition in the United States. Minimal buffering of these acidic inputs in the extreme upper watershed, and an abrupt downstream increase in buffering associated with changes in soil type, apparently produce the observed streamwater chemistry gradient. In contrast, a comparison between 11 midstream, downstream, and tributary sites showed relatively little variation in streamwater chemistry. In addition to the pronounced longitudinal chemistry changes along the upper portion of the stream, pronounced temporal chemistry variations were also observed at all sampling sites. High flow during snowmelt and heavy rains produced more dilute, acidic conditions, while streamwater pH and dissolved base cations were generally highest during low flow. Much of this temporal variation in streamwater chemistry is attributed to seasonal variation in residence times of soil water.     

BUFFER STRIPS TO PROTECT WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS: A MODEL AND RECOMMENDATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Buffer strips are undisturbed, naturally vegetated zones around water supply reservoirs and their tributaries that are a recognized and integral aspect of watershed management. These strips can be very effective in protecting the quality of public potable water supply reservoirs by removing sediment and associated pollutants, reducing bank erosion, and displacing activities from the water's edge that represent potential sources of nonpoint source pollutant generation. As part of a comprehensive watershed management protect for the State of New Jersey, a parameter-based buffer strip model was developed for application to all watersheds above water supply intakes or reservoirs. Input requirements for the model include a combination of slope, width, and time of travel. The application of the model to a watershed in New Jersey with a recommended buffer strip width that ranges from 50 to 300 feet, depending upon a number of assumptions, results in from 6 to 13 percent of the watershed above the reservoir being occupied by the buffer.     

An inventory of wetland impoundments in the coastal zone of Louisiana,USA: Historical trends

We inventoried wetland impoundments in the Louisiana, USA, coastal zone from the late 1900s to 1985. Historically, impoundment of wetlands for reclamation resulted in direct wetland loss after levees (dikes) failed and the impounded area was permanently flooded, reverting not to wetland, but to open-water habitat. A current management approach is to surround wetlands by levees and water control structures, a practice termed semi-impoundment marsh management. The purpose of this semi-impoundment is to retard saltwater intrusion and reduce water level fluctuations in an attempt to reduce wetland loss, which is a serious problem in coastal Louisiana. In order to quantify the total impounded area, we used historic data and high-altitude infrared photography to map coastal impoundments. Our goal was to produce a documented inventory of wetlands intentionally impounded by levees in the coastal zone of Louisiana in order to provide a benchmark for further research. We inventoried 370,658 ha within the coastal zone that had been intentionally impounded before 1985. This area is equal to about 30% of the total wetland area in the coastal zone. Of that total area, approximately 12% (43,000 ha) is no longer impounded (i.e., failed impoundments; levees no longer exist or only remnants remain). Of the 328,000 ha still impounded, about 65% (214,000 ha) is developed (agriculture, aquaculture, urban and industrial development, and contained spoil). The remaining 35% (114,000 ha) of impoundments are in an undeveloped state (wetland or openwater habitat). In December 1985, approximately 50% (78,000 ha) of the undeveloped and failed impoundments were open-water habitat. This inventory will allow researchers to monitor future change in land-water ratios that occur within impounded wetlands and thus to assess the utility of coastal wetland management using impoundments.     

Overview of case studies on recovery of aquatic systems from disturbance

An extensive review of the published literature identified more than 150 case studies in which some aspect of resilience in freshwater systems was reported. Approximately 79% of systems studied were lotic and the remainder lentic. Most of the stressor types were chemical with DDT (N=29) and rotenone (N=15) the most common. The most common nonchemical stressors were logging activity (N=16), flooding (N=8), dredging (N=3), and drought (N=7). The variety of endpoints to which recovery could be measured ranged from sparse data for phytoplankton (N=13), periphyton (N=6), and macrophytes (N=8) to relatively more data for fish (N=412) and macroinvertebrates (N=698). Unfortunately the same characteristics were rarely measured consistently among sites. For example, with respect to fish, more than 30 different species were studied and recovery was measured in many ways, most commonly on the basis of: (1) first reappearance of the species, (2) return time of predisturbance densities, and (3) return time of predisturbance average individual size. Based on these criteria, all systems in these studies seem to be resilient to most disturbances with most recovery times being less than three years. Exceptions included when (1) the disturbance resulted in physical alteration of the existing habitat, (2) residual pollutants remained in the system, or (3) the system was isolated and recolonization was suppressed.     

Effects of dyadic duration on the relationship between leader behavior perceptions and follower outcomes

This research focused on the role of dyadic duration, the amount of time a subordinate has worked for the same supervisor, in leadership dynamics. Specifically, a field study of engineering personnel examined dyadic duration as a moderator of the relationships between supervisory leadership behavior and subordinates' attitudes and behavior. Moderated regression analysis revealed that the length of time a subordinate had served under the same supervisor influenced the relationship between supportive and directive leader behaviors and follower performance. Implications of these findings were discussed, focusing on the exchange process between individual leaders and followers.     

Effects of phytoplankton-induced turbidity on predation success of piscivorous Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis): possible implications for fish community structure in lakes

Turbidity can strongly influence predation success of visually oriented fish, especially piscivores such as adult Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis). This purely carnivorous species usually becomes a facultative piscivore after two discrete food niche shifts. Perch biomass has been observed to decrease in lakes along the productivity gradient, and then be replaced by cyprinids in non-manipulated eutrophic systems. Until now, this change has been mainly attributed to the competitive superiority of cyprinids for zooplankton prey during the juvenile phase of perch, while the piscivorous phase—as a possible factor influencing the recruitment success of perch—has been neglected. As the abundance of suitably sized prey fish should not be limiting in highly productive systems, we hypothesise that the switch from benthivorous feeding to preying on fish is inhibited by the reduced visibility in eutrophic lakes. We tested this hypothesis in laboratory experiments, where perch were fed two size classes of juvenile cyprinids at different phytoplankton- and bentonite-induced turbidity levels. Predation success was significantly influenced by turbidity level and turbidity source, but not by prey size. These experimental results suggest for the first time that piscivory of Eurasian perch is negatively influenced by different sources of turbidity, and hence low visibility might delay the onset of the food niche shift to fish prey.     

The prognostic factors in the prenatal diagnosis of the echogenic fetal lung

The prenatal diagnosis of an echogenic fetal lung (EFL) is now often made in the early second trimester using high-resolution ultrasound. This ultrasound appearance is usually caused by a congenital cystic adenomatoid lung malformation (CCAM), an intrapulmonary lung sequestration or obstruction of a major airway. In order to provide prognostic guidelines to parents who may be considering termination of a fetus with these findings, we have analysed a series of 11 cases diagnosed in our centre over the past 2 years in conjunction with 60 cases from major published series. The data suggest that in the absence of non-immune hydrops fetalis (NIHF) or other anomalies, the outcome for the fetuses is excellent, with over 90 per cent survival. Neither early diagnosis (24 weeks) nor the presence of mediastinal shift is a poor prognostic indicator. In addition, it appears that if NIHF is absent at diagnosis, the chance that it will develop as the pregnancy continues is small (6 per cent). Furthermore, there is a significant (up to 30 per cent) chance that this ultrasound finding will resolve in utero. The development of in utero fetal surgical techniques may be the only hope for those hydropic fetuses who appear to have a dismal prognosis.