Mesoscale meteorological modelling for Hong Kong-application of the MC2 model

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Trends in Raindrop Kinetic Energy with Modeled Climate Warming in the Lake Tahoe Basin

Two means by which climate change may increase surface soil erosion in mountainous terrain are: (1) increasing the frequency of extreme rainfall events and (2) decreasing the duration of snow cover on bare soil. We used output from four general circulation models (GCMs) and two greenhouse gas trajectories to produce a suite of hydrologic variables at a daily time‐step for historic and projected 21st Century conditions. We statistically disaggregated the daily rainfall to hourly, using hourly rainfall from a network of nine weather stations in the Tahoe Basin, and filtered out rain falling on a snowpack. We applied published equations to convert hourly intensity to raindrop kinetic energy (KE) for each day and grid cell in the Basin, averaged across grid cells, and created time series of total annual and maximum annual hourly kinetic energy (TKE and MKE) on snow‐free ground. Using the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, we calculated the significance of long‐term trends in KE on snow‐free ground, and estimated energy levels for return periods of 2, 20, and 100 years. We then detrended the snowpack data and compared the resulting trends in KE with the trends resulting from changes in both rainfall energy and snowpack under two GCMs. Principal findings include (1) upward trends in MKE, (2) stronger upward trends in TKE; and (3) an effect of increasing rainfall intensities on KE in some cases, and a strong effect of reduced snowpack in all cases examined.     

APPLICATION OF KRIGING TO ESTIMATING MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN A REGION OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE1

ABSTRACT: Estimates of mean annual precipitation (MAP) over areas are the starting point for all computations of water and chemical balances for drainage basins and surface water bodies. Any errors in the estimates of MAP are propagated through the balance computations. These errors can be due to: (1) failures of individual gages to collect the amount of precpitation that actually falls; (2) operator errors; and (3) failure of the raingage network to adequately sample the region of interest. This paper attempts to evaluate the last of these types of error by applying kriging in two different approaches to estimating MAP in New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. The data base is the 1951–1980 normal precipitation at 120 raingages in the two states and in adjacent portions of bordering states and provinces. In the first approach, kriging is applied directly to the MAP values, while in the second, kriging is applied to a “precipitation delivery factor” that represents the MAP with the orographic effect removed. The first approach gives slightly better kriged estimates of MAP at seven validation stations that were not included in the original analysis, but results in an error surface that is highly contorted and in larger maximum errors over most of the region. The second approach had a considerably smoother error surface and, thus, is generally preferable as a basis for point and areal estimates of MAP. MAP estimates in the region have 95 percent confidence intervals of about 20 cm/yr at low and moderate elevations, and up to 35 cm/yr at high elevations. These uncertainties amount to about 20 percent of estimated MAP values.     

Evaluating aquacultural use of thermal effluents: An application of system dynamics to environmental problem solving

Given the ecological burden imposed by power plants located in the coastal zone, efforts to improve the marginal benefits realized from their operation are warranted. Indeed, if this source of environmental pollution can be utilized to compensate for past ecological damage, then the benefits will be magnified many-fold.This study addresses the economic feasibility of utilizing heated effluent water from power plants to invigorate the growth of oysters raised under controlled conditions. The preliminary findings indicate that given proper combinations of system capacity, supplemental nutrient supplies, sea water flow and temperature gradients, such an operation is feasible.This is also a demonstration of a viable application of a sophisticated computer modeling approach to environmental problems. System Dynamics a technique pioneered at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is applied to evaluate the physical, biological, and economic interrelationships of the aquacultural system variables. It offers many advantages for the environmental manager and researcher, a number of which are realized in the present investigation.     

Influence of MBBR carrier geometrical properties and biofilm thickness restraint on biofilm properties, effluent particle size distribution, settling velocity distribution, and settling behaviour

The relatively poor settling characteristics of particles produced in moving bed biofilm reactor (MBBR) outline the importance of developing a fundamental understanding of the characterization and settleability of MBBR-produced solids. The influence of carrier geometric properties and different levels of biofilm thickness on biofilm characteristics, solids production, particle size distribution (PSD), and particle settling velocity distribution (PSVD) is evaluated in this study. The analytical ViCAs method is applied to the MBBR effluent to assess the distribution of particle settling velocities. This method is combined with microscopy imaging to relate particle size distribution to settling velocity. Three conventionally loaded MBBR systems are studied at a similar loading rate of 6.0 g/(m² •day) and with different carrier types. The AnoxK™ K5 carrier, a commonly used carrier, is compared to so-called thickness-restraint carriers, AnoxK™ Z-carriers that are newly designed carriers to limit the biofilm thickness. Moreover, two levels of biofilm thickness, 200 μm and 400 μm, are studied using AnoxK™ Z-200 and Z-400 carriers. Statistical analysis confirms that K5 carriers demonstrated a significantly different biofilm mass, thickness, and density, in addition to distinct trends in PSD and PSVD in comparison with Z-carriers. However, in comparison of thickness-restraint carriers, Z-200 carrier results did not vary significantly compared to the Z-400 carrier. The K5 carriers showed the lowest production of suspended solids (0.7 ± 0.3 g-TSS/day), thickest biofilm (281.1 ± 8.7 µm) and lowest biofilm density (65.0 ± 1.5 kg/m³). The K5 effluent solids also showed enhanced settling behaviour, consisting of larger particles with faster settling velocities.     

In situ bioremediation of an aniline spill in an industrial setting

In situ remediation of aniline from soils and groundwater using biological and physical treatments was conducted at the BASF Corporation facility in Geismar, Louisiana. To mitigate the migration of aniline, remediate contaminated soil and groundwater, and determine concentrations, 24 immobilized microbe bioreactors were fixed in the subsoil, and a horizontal recovery well and 7 monitoring wells were installed. Soil and monitoring wells were sampled quarterly to assess bioplug impact on the aniline concentrations. The recovery well was sampled monthly to estimate the pounds of aniline removed from groundwater. Soil pH, composition, and microbial counts were used to estimate the fate and transport. Aniline levels were lowered significantly after remediation and total cancer risk was below levels for industrial sites, as established by State of Louisiana Risk Evaluation/Corrective Action Program guidelines. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The alcohol interlock: an underutilized resource for predicting and controlling drunk drivers

This report summarizes evidence presented during the Third Annual Ignition Interlock Symposium at Vero Beach, Florida, 29 October 2002. The ignition interlock prevents a car from starting when blood alcohol concentration (BAC) is elevated. We review some of our prior work as well as introduce previously unpublished results to demonstrate the manner in which the data recorded by the alcohol ignition interlock device can serve as an advance predictor of future driving under the influence (DUI) of alcohol risks. Data used in this current report represent approximately 2,200 ignition interlock users from Alberta, Canada, and about 8,000 interlock users from Quebec, Canada; the Alberta data set contained 5.5 million breath tests and the Quebec data 18.8 million breath tests. All tests are time and date stamped and this information was used to characterize patterns of BAC and vehicle use, and the relationship between BAC elevations and DUI offenses that accumulated after the interlock was removed from the vehicles. Findings from Cox regression show that BAC elevations >.02-.04% are more potent predictors of repeat DUI (p<.0001) than even prior DUI (p<.006), usually found to be the strongest indicator of driver risk. Prior DUI obviously has no use for scaling the risk of first-time offenders. Drivers who are both multiple offenders and who have more than a few elevated interlock BAC tests are much more likely to repeat DUI. The timing and pattern of elevated BAC tests provided during the time drivers were required to use an alcohol ignition interlock device are remarkably similar on both a daily basis and an hourly basis when the interlock programs from the two provinces are compared directly. Both provinces had higher rates of elevated tests on Saturday and Sunday, and the fewest elevated tests on Tuesdays. The absolute rate of elevated tests is similar despite the two provinces adhering to different interlock lockout points (.02% Quebec;.04% Alberta). Charts tracking the Monday-Friday timing of elevated BAC tests by hour are nearly identical for both provinces. The most elevated BAC tests occurred between 7 and 9 A.M. Monday to Friday, even though most vehicle start attempts occurred much later in the day. This higher rate of elevated morning BAC likely represents drinking from the prior evening with alcohol not yet cleared from circulation; those with elevated BAC in the early morning were more likely to have a repeat offense even after accounting for prior DUI and the higher overall rate of elevated BAC tests. This is viewed as evidence of a drinking problem that will lead to impaired driving after the controlling function of the interlock is removed. Policy changes are discussed that might take better advantage of interlock information to improve the public response to drunk driving.     

On the thermally induced isomerisation of hexabromocyclododecane stereoisomers

The interconversion of the stereoisomers contained in technical 1,2,5,6,9,10-hexabromocyclododecane, a major brominated flame retardant increasingly found in the environment and in biota, was investigated at elevated temperatures. The application of pure enantiomers of the three constituents alpha-, beta-, and gamma-HBCD enabled the unambiguous elucidation of the individual isomerisation reactions as well as the quantification of all respective rate constants. At 160 degrees C the rate constants range over two orders of magnitude from 1.50x10(-3) to 1.88x10(-5)mol(%)s(-1). A preliminary mechanistic explanation for the differences of the rate constants which govern the composition of HBCD diastereomers at equilibrium is given.     

Ecosystem Impacts of Geoengineering: A Review for Developing a Science Plan

Geoengineering methods are intended to reduce climate change, which is already having demonstrable effects on ecosystem structure and functioning in some regions. Two types of geoengineering activities that have been proposed are: carbon dioxide (CO(2)) removal (CDR), which removes CO(2) from the atmosphere, and solar radiation management (SRM, or sunlight reflection methods), which reflects a small percentage of sunlight back into space to offset warming from greenhouse gases (GHGs). Current research suggests that SRM or CDR might diminish the impacts of climate change on ecosystems by reducing changes in temperature and precipitation. However, sudden cessation of SRM would exacerbate the climate effects on ecosystems, and some CDR might interfere with oceanic and terrestrial ecosystem processes. The many risks and uncertainties associated with these new kinds of purposeful perturbations to the Earth system are not well understood and require cautious and comprehensive research.