Atmospheric influences on water quality: a simulation of nutrient loading for the Pearl River Basin, USA

Knowledge of water quality conditions is essential in assessing the health of riverine ecosystems. The goal of this study is to determine the degree to which water quality variables are related to precipitation and air temperature conditions for a segment of the Pearl River Basin near Bogalusa, LA, USA. The AQUATOX ecological fate simulation model is used to estimate daily total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and dissolved oxygen concentrations over a 2-year period. Daily modeled output for each variable was calibrated against reliably measured data to assess the accuracy. Observed data were plotted against simulated data for controlled and perturbed models for validation, and stepwise multiple regression analysis was used to quantify the relationships between the water quality and meteorological variables. Results suggest that daily dissolved oxygen is significantly negatively correlated to concurrent daily mean air temperature with a total explained variance of 0.679 (p?<?0.01), and monthly dissolved oxygen is significantly negatively correlated to monthly mean air temperature with a total explained variance of 0.567 (p?<?0.01). Total mean monthly phosphorus concentration is significantly positively related to the previous month's precipitation with a total explained variance of 0.302 (p?<?0.01). These relationships suggest that atmospheric conditions have a strong influence on water quality in the Pearl Basin. Therefore, environmental planners should expect that future climatic changes are likely to alter water quality.     

Leaching of styrene and other aromatic compounds in drinking water from PS bottles

Bottled water may not be safer, or healthier, than tap water. The present studies have proved that styrene and some other aromatic compounds leach continuously from polystyrene （PS） bottles used locally for packaging. Water sapmles in contact with PS were extracted by a preconcentration technique called as ＂purge and trap＂ and analysed by gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer （GC/MS）. Eleven aromatic compounds were identified in these studies. Maximum concentration of styrene in PS bottles was 29.5 μg/L. Apart from styrene, ethyl benzene, toluene and benzene were also quantified but their concentrations were much less than WHO guide line values. All other compounds were in traces. Quality of plastic and storage time were the major factor in leaching of styrene. Concentration of styrene was increased to 69.53 μg/L after one-year storage. In Styrofoam and PS cups studies, hot water was found to be contaminated with styrene and other aromatic compounds. It was observed that temperature played a major role in the leaching of styrene monomer from Styrofoam cups. Paper cups were found to be safe for hot drinks.     

Climate anomalies, Indonesian vegetation fires and terrestrial carbon emissions

There was a widespread misconception about the causes of vegetation and land fires in Indonesia. At a certain point, the public perceived that fires and the associated haze pollution were primarily caused by smallholders' agricultural activities. In fact, there was a variety of land-use activities including large-scale land clearing following deforestation for further land development. El Niño events and the associated dry weather were sometimes quoted by officials and the media as the cause of fires. The fire episodes from 1980 to 2000 were analysed in connection with climate anomalies and the implementation of land-use policies related to forest conversions. The analysis employs long-term climatic and sea surface temperature data to reconstruct climate distributions and anomalies including Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR). In this study, the terrestrial carbon emissions from vegetation fires were estimated based on official statistical data on area burnt. The possible incentives for sustainable land management were discussed in the light of fire prevention. The underlying cause neglected in the discussion of Indonesian vegetation fires was forest and land development policy. Legitimated in the early 1980s, it drove massive forest conversions and the use of fires for land clearing. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provided dry weather suitable for biomass burning and widespread fire, but it was hardly the cause of fires. The estimate of area burnt in the big fires in 1997 was about 11.6 Mha, resulting in carbon release of 1.45 Gt, equivalent to 0.73 ppmv of CO₂, or almost half the annual global atmospheric CO₂ growth. Based on the current carbon market price such emissions by the 1997 fire episode were worth around US$ 3.6 billion.     

“The gift of failure: New approaches to analyzing and learning from events and near-misses.” Honoring the contributions of Bernhard Wilpert

This special issue presents papers from a workshop conducted by New Technologies and Work (NeTWork) to honor the memory of Bernhard Wilpert, the founder and organiser of NeTWork. The papers reflect the theme that undesirable incidents and events, serious and disturbing as they may be, are a “gift of failure.” In short, events offer an opportunity to learn about safe and unsafe operations, generate productive conversations across engaged stakeholders, and bring about beneficial changes to technology, organization, and mental models (understanding). Papers in the special issue are organised around three topics: the process of event analysis, the relationship between event analysis and organisational learning, and learning at multiple system levels. In this introduction we describe the workshop, summarize the contributions of Bernhard Wilpert, suggest three themes that emerged from the workshop, and offer our thoughts about the future of event analysis and learning from events.     

Building Safety indicators: Part 2 – Application,practices and results

Petroleum exploration and production in the Barents Sea is a controversial topic. The Goliat field outside the northern coast of Norway will be the first offshore oil development in this region, with planned production start in 2013–2014. Avoiding major accidents at Goliat is critical; not only to reduce the risks to human lives and the environment, but also to gain political acceptance. Providing early warnings of major accidents for Goliat is one of the main objectives of the research project ‘Building Safety’. The objective of this paper is to describe the development of early warnings in the form of indicators. In addition, the paper includes an overview of current status of early warnings of accidents in other major hazard industries; the nuclear power industry, the chemical process industry, and aviation. Experiences from these industries, including lessons learned from recent major accidents, have been used as important input to the development of early warning indicators.     

The development of probabilistic models to estimate accident risk (due to runway overrun and landing undershoot) applicable to the design and construction of runway safety areas

The risks of landing overrun (LDOR – LanDing OverRun), Take-off Overrun (TOOR – Take-Off OverRun) and landing undershoot (LDUS – LanDing UnderShoot) are dependent on multiple factors related to operating conditions. These include wind, runway surface conditions, landing or take-off distances required, the presence of obstacles, runway distance available, the existence and dimensions of runway safety areas.In this paper we propose risk models for runway overrun and landing undershoot, using a probabilistic approach. These models are supported by historical data on accidents in the area around the runway and will enable us to determine if the risk level is acceptable or whether action must be taken to mitigate such risks at a given airport. Furthermore, these models permit comparison of the results of different risk mitigation actions in terms of operational risk and safety.The principal advantage of this method is the high quality results obtained for a limited investment in terms of time, computing power and data. As such the method is extremely practical and easy to apply in aerodrome planning, development and operation.     

Prediction of the confidence interval for stability analysis of chain pillars in coal mines

The conventional deterministic approach based (DAB) methods are simple and widely used to determine an adequate chain pillar size in coal mines where geological settings, coal characterizations and mining methods have been explored. It is evident that such deterministic methods have some intrinsic limitations in handling uncertainties in material properties, non-regular geometries and different mining operations. In the deterministic stability analysis of a chain pillar, the safety factors as well as all input parameters are deterministic. Although, these parameters generally exhibit uncertainty and should lead to a probabilistic expression for the safety factor. The probabilistic analysis provides a confidence interval to express the reliability of chain pillars stability.In this paper, safety factor is defined as a probabilistic function and the failure probability of designed chain pillar of Tabas coal mine is then evaluated using the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) and the Advanced Second Moment (ASM) methods. The results of the probabilistic stability analysis show that the confidence interval for designed pillars with both mentioned methods applied are similar and their values vary from 84% to 88%. The results of such analyses can be used as a basis for decision-making about the size of chain pillars and reduce the risk of pillars stability as well as the uncertainties. However, a trade-off between cost is essential for making the final decision.     

Organisational learning and continuous improvement of health and safety in certified manufacturers

Certified management systems have increasingly been applied by firms in recent decades and now cover the management of health and safety, principally through the OHSAS 18001 standard. In order to become certified, firms must not only observe the relevant legislation, but also improve performance and raise goals within health and safety on a continuous basis. The article examines how certified occupational and health management systems influence this process to evaluate how far they hinder or support learning. It presents a model with which it is possible to identify and analyse improvement processes. The model is applied to five cases from a qualitative study of Danish manufacturers with certified health and safety management systems. The cases illustrate the wide variation in health and safety management among certified firms.Certification is found to support lower levels of continuous improvement performance in handling health and safety issues. However, more advanced improvement practices are shown to be connected to the integration of health and safety in other managerial areas, as well as to the employment of similar advanced improvement processes within firms. The article argues that certified health and safety management does not obstruct learning, and can support advanced learning. Improvement practices with regard to health and safety are mainly dependent upon the firm’s overall organisational processes and do not automatically arise from the standard alone.