Semi-parametric statistical approaches for space-time process prediction

The problem of estimation and prediction of a spatial-temporal stochastic process, observed at regular times and irregularly in space, is considered. A mixed formulation involving a non- parametric component, accounting for a deterministic trend and the effect of exogenous variables, and a parametric component representing the purely spatio-temporal random variation is proposed. Correspondingly, a two-step procedure, first addressing the estimation of the non- parametric component, and then the estimation of the parametric component is developed from the residual series obtained, with spatial-temporal prediction being performed in terms of suitable spatial interpolation of the temporal variation structure. The proposed model formula-tion, together with the estimation and prediction procedure, are applied using a Gaussian ARMA structure for temporal modelling to space-time forecasting from real data of air pollution concentration levels in the region surrounding a power station in northwest Spain.     

Comparison of Soil Extraction Isotherms of Soil Samples Saturated With Nonpolar Liquids

In multiphase systems capillary pressures play a significant role on fluid movement and retention. The facility to predict the effect of different thermal remediation strategies requires the knowledge of the effect of temperature on capillary pressure-saturation relationships in the soils. The objective of recent study was (a) to develop a technique for routinely measuring the pressure-saturation curves of soil samples saturated with a nonpolar liquid at different regulated temperatures (b) to build a database using the measured pressure-saturation curves and the physical, chemical properties of the model soils (c) to establish the dependence of nonaqueous phase liquid retention on the soil properties and the temperature. The retention curves (extraction isotherms) with nonaqueous phase liquid were determined using a modified pressure plate extractor. The wetting phase was a non-aromatic hydrocarbon distillation product. Pressure plates were designed and constructed in the laboratory of our department. The temperature was held constant at 20, 40 and 60 ^∘C. Statistical analysis was performed involving selected soil parameters and the measured nonaqueous phase liquid retention data. The results show that knowing some easily measurable soil parameters (bulk density, particle size distribution, humus and lime content) we can estimate the nonaqueous phase liquid retention of the soils. The measured “extraction isotherms” provide essential information about the temperature-dependency of pressure-saturation curves.     

Atmospherically deposited major and trace elements in the winter snowpack along a gradient of altitude in the Central Pyrenees: The seasonal record of long-range fluxes over SW Europe

The chemistry of high mountain snowpacks is a result of the long-range atmospheric transport and deposition of elements. Pyrenean snowpacks contain information about the fluxes of elements over SW Europe in winter. Here we analysed Al, Ti, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Cd and Pb in the 2004–05 winter snowpack in the Central Pyrenees, at an altitude range of 1820–3200 m a.s.l. Ni, As, Se and Cd were not detected in most cases. The concentrations of the remaining elements were comparable to those found in other high mountain areas in Europe and North America considered representative of regional background of atmospheric deposition in populated areas. In contrast, our measurements were higher than those of polar areas, which represent the global background. Single measurements of concentrations and snow accumulation were subject to considerable spatial variability, which may be attributable to strong wind drift and other post-depositional processes. The major ions chemistry of the snow indicated three possible origins for the solutes: terrigenous dust, sea salt spray and polluting S and N aerosols. We found no association between Cu, Zn and Pb and any of these possible sources. This observation therefore indicates that these elements were not preferentially bound to any particular kind of aerosol. Snow collected at altitudes of up to 2050 m a.s.l. presented higher concentrations of several elements than snow above this altitude, thereby indicating a local influence. Snow collected above 2300 m a.s.l. was therefore more representative of broad regional inputs. At these higher altitudes, snow was not enriched in Al, Ti, Mn, Fe or As compared with the composition of the upper continental crust and the local lithology, and these elements (except Mn) appeared almost exclusively in the particulate fraction. This observation indicates that Al, Ti, Mn, Fe and As were present mainly as part of dust particles of terrigenous origin. In contrast, Cu, Zn, and Pb presented medium to high enrichment factors and showed a higher proportion of soluble forms, thereby indicating their polluting character.     

Historical carbon fluxes in the expanding deforestation frontier of Southern Brazilian Amazonia (1985–2012)

In tropical areas, pioneer occupation fronts steer the rapid expansion of deforestation, contributing to carbon emissions. Up-to-date carbon emission estimates covering the long-term development of such frontiers depend on the availability of high spatial–temporal resolution data. In this paper, we provide a detailed assessment of carbon losses from deforestation and potential forest degradation from fragmentation for one expanding frontier in the Brazilian Amazon. We focused on one of the Amazonia’s hot-spots of forest loss, the BR-163 highway that connects the high productivity agricultural landscapes in Mato Grosso with the exporting harbors of the Amazon. We used multi-decadal (1984–2012) Landsat-based time series on forested and non-forested area in combination with a carbon book-keeping model. We show a 36% reduction in 1984s biomass carbon stocks, which led to the emission of 611.5 TgCO₂ between 1985 and 1998 (43.6 TgCO₂ year⁻¹) and 959.8 TgCO₂ over 1999–2012 (68.5 TgCO₂ year⁻¹). Overall, fragmentation-related carbon losses represented 1.88% of total emissions by 2012, with an increasing relevance since 2004. We compared the Brazilian Space Agency deforestation assessment (PRODES) with our data and found that small deforestation polygons not captured by PRODES had increasing importance on estimated deforestation carbon losses since 2000. The comparative analysis improved the understanding of data-source-related uncertainties on carbon estimates and indicated disagreement areas between datasets that could be subject of future research. Furthermore, spatially explicit, annual deforestation and emission estimates like the ones derived from this study are important for setting regional baselines for REDD+ or similar payment for ecosystem services frameworks.

     

Carbon stocks and losses to deforestation in protected areas in Brazilian Amazonia

Regional Environmental Change - By 2014 approximately 2.2 million km2 (~43%) of Brazil’s Legal Amazonia region had been incorporated into an extensive network of 718 protected areas, which...     

Influence of community-based natural resource management strategies in the resilience of social-ecological systems

Different social-ecological systems around the world are managed under community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) strategies. This paper analyses how CBNRM strategies influence the resilience of social-ecological systems to the disturbances they face, drawing upon the experience of three Latin American cases (two in Mexico and one in Colombia). The cases differ in their CBNRM approach and in the time these governance systems have been in place. By using a mixed-method approach, we review the socio-ecological history and describe each CBNRM characteristics. We then assess their resilience to socioeconomic and environmental disturbances through a set of indicators. We found that CBNRM strategies influence positively and negatively resilience and that internal decisions might address important threats. On the positive side, the social-ecological systems with longer tradition of CBNRM and more local buy-in of commonly agreed objectives appear to be more resilient to environmental challenges. But, internal governance factors such as power imbalances, poor income distribution, and gender inequities linked to CBNRM undermine resilience and foster out migration. Finally, communities appear to have limited capacities to cope with external disturbances such as global drivers of change or national policies that negatively affect their social-ecological resilience.

     

Correction to: Influence of community-based natural resource management strategies in the resilience of social-ecological systems

Regional Environmental Change - The published online version contains mistake. Author name was incorrectly captured. Instead of Maria del Mar Delgado-Serrano was incorrectly captured as Ma del Mar...     

Trees on the move: using decision theory to compensate for climate change at the regional scale in forest social-ecological systems

Regional Environmental Change - The adaptation of social-ecological systems such as managed forests depends largely on decisions taken by forest managers who must choose among a wide range of...     

Life cycle assessment tool of electricity generation in Portugal

This paper investigates multi-stakeholder arrangements initiated by businesses and NGOs from the North that aim to enhance a more sustainable agricultural production at specific localities in Southern countries. We aim to better understand the search for concerted action in multi-actor arrangements. Therefore, this paper presents a diagnostic framework with three strategic challenges the partnership projects are facing: linking global economic objectives to local needs, values and interests; bridging public and private interests and responsibilities; and seeking trade-offs between social, environmental and economic values. Starting from the partnerships’ Theory of Change, this diagnostic framework is applied to comparative case studies of partnership projects in the cocoa sector in Indonesia, which are part of a Northern-based public–private partnership to improve farmers’ prospective. It is concluded that the economic reality faced by the farmers differs from that of the Northern actors; collaboration with governments is difficult because of different organizational cultures; and the partnership projects underestimate the strength of vested social relations the smallholders are part of. Overall, the initiators of the partnerships seem to work with a too restricted economic interpretation of the local reality.     

The impact of global change on economic values of water for Public Irrigation Schemes at the São Francisco River Basin in Brazil

Economic values of water for the main Public Irrigation Schemes in the sub-middle region of the São Francisco River Basin, in northeastern Brazil, are determined in this study using an integration of a global agro-economic land and water use (MAgPIE) with a local economic model (Positive Mathematical Programming). As in the latter, the water values depend on the crops grown, and as Brazilian agriculture is strongly influenced by the global market, we used a regionalized version of the global model adapted to the region in order to simulate the crop land use, which is in turn determined by changes in global demand, trade barriers, and climate. The allocation of sugarcane and fruit crops projected with climate change by the global model, showed an impact on the average yields and on the water costs in the main schemes resulting in changes in the water values locally. The economic values for all schemes in the baseline year were higher than the water prices established for agricultural use in the basin. In the future, these water values will be higher in all the schemes. The highest water values currently and in the future were identified in municipalities with a significant proportion of area growing irrigated sugarcane. Being aware of current water values of each user in a baseline year and in a projected future under global climate and socioeconomic changes, decision makers should improve water allocation policies at local scale, in order to avoid conflicts and unsustainable development in the future.