Quantifying species recovery and conservation success to develop an IUCN Green List of Species

Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action.     

Quantifying the limits of HANPP and carbon emissions which prolong total species well-being

Anthropogenic climate and land-use change are leading to irreversible losses of global biodiversity, upon which ecosystem functioning depends. Since total species' well-being depends on ecosystem goods and services, man must determine how much net primary productivity (NPP) may be appropriated and carbon emitted so as to not adversely impact this and future generations. In 2005, man ought to have only appropriated 9.72 Pg C of NPP, representing a factor 2.50, or 59.93%, reduction in human-appropriated NPP in that year. Concurrently, the carbon cycle would have been balanced with a factor 1.26, or 20.84%, reduction from 7.60 Gt C/year to 5.70 Gt C/year, representing a return to the 1986 levels. This limit is in keeping with the category III stabilization scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Projecting population growth to 2030 and its associated basic food requirements, the maximum HANPP remains at 9.74 ± 0.02 Pg C/year. This time-invariant HANPP may only provide for the current global population of 6.51 billion equitably at the current average consumption of 1.49 t C per capita, calling into question the sustainability of developing countries striving for high-consuming country levels of 5.85 t C per capita and its impacts on equitable resource distribution.     

哥伦比亚的环境管理志愿举措:全国工业协会(ANDI)的参与

1990年代哥伦比亚采取了一批保护环境的举措.这些最初表现为涉及若干团体(尤其工业团体)的独立志愿运动,由全国工业协会(ANDI)、哥伦比亚塑料工业协会(Acoplastico)和哥伦比亚安全理事会(CCS)协调.这些团体支持国际环境管理发展,尤其<责任关怀计划>.自1994-1995年以来,在当局愈来愈积极--但仍有待完善--的参与支持下,签订了许多协调协议.尽管尚有不足之处,但哥伦比亚迄今为止所取得的进展依然不失为可持续发展道路上一个可以效仿的范例.     

A Comparison of Bayesian Methods for Uncertainty Analysis in Hydraulic and Hydrodynamic Modeling

We evaluate and compare the performance of Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) for uncertainty analysis in hydraulic and hydrodynamic modeling (HHM) studies. The methods are evaluated in a synthetic 1D wave routing exercise based on the diffusion wave model, and in a multidimensional hydrodynamic study based on the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code to simulate estuarine circulation processes in Weeks Bay, Alabama. Results show that BMC and MCMC provide similar estimates of uncertainty. The posterior parameter densities computed by both methods are highly consistent, as well as the calibrated parameter estimates and uncertainty bounds. Although some studies suggest that MCMC is more efficient than BMC, our results did not show a clear difference between the performance of the two methods. This seems to be due to the low number of model parameters typically involved in HHM studies, and the use of the same likelihood function. In fact, for these studies, the implementation of BMC results simpler and provides similar results to MCMC. The results of GLUE are, on the other hand, less consistent to the results of BMC and MCMC in both applications. The posterior probability densities tend to be flat and similar to the uniform priors, which can result in calibrated parameter estimates centered in the parametric space.     

The effect of ISO 14001 certification on toxic emissions: an analysis of industrial facilities in the north of Spain

During recent decades, the impact of industrial organisations on the environment has become clearly evident. It has also become more difficult to hide and more expensive. Globally, this has caused many enterprises to put all their efforts into seeking management instruments that allow them to reduce their negative impact on the environment as well as improving their economic efficiency. This environmental interest is either voluntary or forced by customers or by legal pressure. Environmental Management Systems (EMSs) are among the many tools that have appeared to fulfil that goal and that have drawn international researchers’ attention. The most popular system and the one most often used is the ISO 14001 standard.This paper examines empirically the influence that this certification exerts on the company’s pollutant emission policy. The analysis was carried out in four regions of Spain: Asturias, Cantabria, Galicia and Castilla-León and includes 126 industrial organisations. The goal of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of the companies according to their emissions policies once they have achieved the ISO 14001 certification. In the paper the Toxics Release Index of 56 certified companies is compared with the Index of 70 non-certified companies. Through a statistical analysis based on the Student’s t-test and the Mann–Whitney U test, it was concluded that ISO 14001 does not represent an environmental proactivity signal clearly enough to result in a reduction of the company’s environmental polluting index.     

Fuzzy synthetic evaluation of disinfection by-products--a risk-based indexing system

Disinfection by-products (DBPs) are formed when disinfectants such as chlorine, chloramine, and ozone react with organic matter in water. Chlorine being the most common disinfectant used in the drinking water industry worldwide, significant attention has been focused on chlorinated DBPs. A new indexing method using fuzzy synthetic evaluation is proposed to determine the health risk associated with the two major groups of chlorinated DBPs--trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs). Initially, membership functions for cancer and non-cancer risks associated with THMs and HAAs are used to establish the fuzzy evaluation matrices. Subsequently, weighted evaluation matrices for both types of risks are established by performing cross products on the weighted vectors (founded on the analytic hierarchy process) and the fuzzy evaluation matrices. In the final stage, the weighted evaluation matrices of cancer and non-cancer risks are aggregated to determine the final risk rating. Two case studies are provided to demonstrate the application of this method.     

A framework for assessment and monitoring of small mammals in a lowland tropical forest

Development projects in tropical forests can impact biodiversity.Assessment and monitoring programs based on the principles of adaptive management assist managers to identify and reduce suchimpacts. The small mammal community is one important component ofa forest ecosystem that may be impacted by development projects. In 1996, a natural gas exploration project was initiated in a Peruvian rainforest. The Smithsonian Institution's Monitoring andAssessment of Biodiversity program cooperated with Shell Prospecting and Development Peru to establish an adaptive management program to protect the region's biodiversity. In thisarticle, we discuss the role of assessing and monitoring small mammals in relation to the natural gas project. We outline theconceptual issues involved in establishing an assessment andmonitoring program, including setting objectives, evaluating the results and making appropriate decisions. We also summarizethe steps taken to implement the small mammal assessment, provideresults from the assessment and discuss protocols to identifyappropriate species for monitoring.     

Indices for assessment and monitoring of large mammals within an adaptive management framework

Many development projects intended to exploit natural resourcesare occurring in fragile ecosystems, and therefore the need forsound biodiversity assessment and monitoring programs is growing.Large mammals are important components of these fragile ecosystems, yet there are few strategies that attempt to assess and monitor entire large mammal communities in relation to development projects. We propose the use of two indices applied within a framework of adaptive management. An occurrence indexassesses the composition and distribution of large mammals at a site, and an abundance index monitors the abundance of large mammals over time in relation to development. We discuss the design, applicability and effectiveness of these indices based onour experience with a natural gas development project in the Amazon forests of southeastern Peru.     

Laboratory-scale chlorination to estimate the levels of halogenated DBPs in full-scale distribution systems

Occurrence of halogenated disinfection by-products (DBPs) (trihalomethanes –THMs– and haloacetic acids –HAAs–) in the waters of two utilities in Quebec City (Canada) was investigated using two approaches: experimental chlorination studies and full-scale sampling within distribution systems. Experimental studies were designed to reproduce treatment plant and distribution system conditions (chlorine dose, water temperature, pH and water residence time). Differences in halogenated DBPs in the two distribution systems under study were significant and comparable to those observed in experimental laboratory studies. For the waters of both utilities, chlorination studies better reproduced the occurrence of halogenated DBPs in points of the distribution system located near the treatment plant (low residence time of water) than in other points. Multivariate regression models for THMs, HAAs and their species were developed using the data from experimental studies in order to predict halogenated DBP levels measured in the distribution system. Models were all statistically significant, but showed low ability to predict full-scale halogenated DBPs, particularly in points located at distribution system extremities. Specifically, experimental chlorination-based models are not able to simulate the decrease of HAA levels. Results of this research suggest that the use of experimental data to predict halogenated DBP levels in full-scale distribution systems – for operational, regulatory and epidemiological purposes – must be done with caution.