Application of non-linear automatic optimization techniques for calibration of HSPF.

Development of TMDLs (total maximum daily loads) is often facilitated by using the software system BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating point and Nonpoint Sources). One of the key elements of BASINS is the watershed model HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran) developed by USEPA. Calibration of HSPF is a very tedious and time consuming task, more than 100 parameters are involved in the calibration process. In the current research, three non-linear automatic optimization techniques are applied and compared, as well an efficient way to calibrate HSPF is suggested. Parameter optimization using local and global optimization techniques for the watershed model is discussed. Approaches to automatic calibration of HSPF using the nonlinear parameter estimator PEST (Parameter Estimation Tool) with its Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) method, Random multiple Search Method (RSM), and Shuffled Complex Evolution method developed at the University of Arizona (SCE-UA) are presented. Sensitivity analysis was conducted and the most and the least sensitive parameters were identified. It was noted that sensitivity depends on number of adjustable parameters. As more parameters were optimized simultaneously--a wider range of parameter values can maintain the model in the calibrated state. Impact of GML, RSM, and SCE-UA variables on ability to find the global minimum of the objective function (OF) was studied and the best variables are suggested. All three methods proved to be more efficient than manual HSPF calibration. Optimization results obtained by these methods are very similar, although in most cases RSM outperforms GML and SCE-UA outperforms RSM. GML is a very fast method, it can perform as well as SCE-UA when the variables are properly adjusted, initial guess is good and insensitive parameters are eliminated from the optimization process. SCE-UA is very robust and convenient to use. Logical definition of key variables in most cases leads to the global minimum.     

Prenatal diagnosis of congenital nephrosis by in utero kidney biopsy

The diagnosis of congenital nephrosis is difficult during the antepartum period. The combination of an elevated amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein, a negative acetylcholinesterase, and a negative ultrasound examination is highly indicative of congenital nephrosis; however, these findings can also be associated with a normal gestation. This is the first report of pathologic confirmation of congenital nephrosis from an in utero fetal kidney biopsy. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Joint application of an empirical and mechanistic model for regional lake acidification

The empirical direct distribution model for lake acidification is calibrated for use in an integrated assessment model which predicts the regional impact of an acid deposition control strategy. The calibration is based on the mechanistic Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC). The models are applied jointly to a set of 33 statistically-selected lakes in the Adirondack region of New York. Calibration of the direct distribution model is based on a step-function application of acid deposition to MAGIC. Comparative evaluations of the resulting model predictions are made using historic deposition estimates and two alternative future deposition scenarios. The predictions of the direct distribution model match well the shapes and patterns of change of the regional distributions of ANC and pH predicted by MAGIC, the short- and medium-term dynamics of these changes, and the effect of including organic acids. However, small, long-term decreases in the fraction of incoming acid deposition neutralized by lakes and their watersheds predicted by MAGIC are not reproduced.     

Career success and personal failure experiences and Type A behaviour

This study examines the relationship of Type A behaviour to career experiences associated with feelings of personal failure (Korman and Korman, 1980). Seventy-five managers completed the Jenkins Activity Survey, a widely used paper-and-pencil index of Type A behaviour, and measures of various career experiences. The data provided concurrent validation of the Korman's model and also showed Type A behaviour to be significantly related to career outcomes reflecting disappointment, alienation and personal failure. A case is made for the inclusion of Type A in career research. Implications for careerists and their organizations are offered.     

Injuries causing death: Their nature,external causes,and associated diseases

This article provides national data on the types of injuries reported on death certificates, the external causes of these injuries, and diseases that are frequently reported with them. Injuries were a factor in 11 % (213,366 deaths) of the deaths to residents of the United States in 1978. Of 11 broad categories of injuries, three (fractures, sprains, strains, and dislocations, intracranial injuries, and adverse effects) were mentioned on almost 50,000 deaths each. There was considerable variation in the distribution of injury types by age, sex, and race. The most notable example was fractures of the lower limb which were mentioned on 29% of the deaths involving an injury to 65 + year olds but no less than 5% of such deaths for all other age groups. For white females, the percentage with a fracture of the lower limb was 23 % compared to 12 % overall. In 25 % of the deaths involving an injury, the immediate cause was a motor vehicle accident. In 51 %, the immediate cause of the injury was a non-motor-vehicle accident. In 73 % of the deaths involving non-motor-vehicle accidents, disease conditions as well as injuries were a factor; and, 69% of the time, the disease condition was actually the underlying cause of the death with the injury being a contributing factor or complication. For example, over 14,000 deaths in 1978 involved a circulatory condition as the underlying cause of death which was complicated by an accidental fracture, sprain, or dislocation. Although diseases more often assumed the role of the underlying cause of death, they were also a nonunderlying cause in 24,000 non-motor-vehicle accident deaths. Over 12,000 of such deaths involved circulatory diseases.     

A new way to use solid-state carbon-13 nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy to study the sorption of organic compounds to soil organic matter

Several solid-state 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) techniques were used to characterize soil organic matter spiked with 13C-labeled organic compounds spanning a range of hydrophobicities (benzoic acid, benzophenone, naphthalene, phenanthrene, and palmitic acid). The chemical shifts of NMR resonances of the sorbed species were shifted by up to 3 ppm relative to those of the neat compounds. Sorption also resulted in increased resonance linewidth for the compounds containing a single 13C label, indicating the presence of a range of different chemical environments at the sites of sorption. On the other hand, sorption decreased the linewidth of the resonance of naphthalene, which was uniformly 13C-labeled. This was attributed to the removal of intermolecular 13C-13C dipolar coupling. Heterogeneity of the organic matter was demonstrated using the spectral editing technique proton spin relaxation editing (PSRE), which enabled the identification and quantification of charcoal-rich domains characterized by rapid rates of proton spin-lattice relaxation in the static frame (T1H), and humic domains characterized by slow rates of T1H relaxation. Furthermore it was demonstrated that the sorbed 13C-labeled molecules "inherit" the T1H "signature" of the organic matrix in their immediate vicinity. Thus PSRE on the spiked soils enabled evaluation of the relative affinity of the two domain types for the sorbate molecules. The charcoal-rich domains were shown to have a twofold to tenfold greater affinity for the organic compounds, with greater differences found for the more hydrophobic compounds.     

Assessing impacts of partial mass depletion in DNAPL source zones: II. Coupling source strength functions to plume evolution

Analytical solutions, describing the time-dependent DNAPL source-zone mass and contaminant discharge rate, derived previously in Part I [Falta, R.W., Rao, P.S., Basu, N., this issue. Assessing the impacts of partial mass depletion in DNAPL source zones: I. Analytical modeling of source strength functions and plume response. J. Contam. Hydrol.] are used as a flux-boundary condition in a semi-analytical contaminant transport model. These analytical solutions assume a power relationship between the flow-averaged source concentration, and the source DNAPL mass; the empirical exponent (gamma) is a function of the flow field heterogeneity, DNAPL architecture, and the correlation between them. The DNAPL source strength terms can account for partial source remediation, either at time zero, or at some later time after the DNAPL release. The transport model considers advection, retardation, three-dimensional dispersion, and sequential first-order decay/production of several species. A separate solution is used to compute the time-dependent mass of each contaminant in the plume. A series of examples using different values of gamma shows how the benefits of partial DNAPL source remediation can vary with site conditions. In general, when gamma>1, relatively large short-term reductions in the plume concentrations and mass occur, but the source longevity is not strongly affected. Conversely, when gamma<1, the short-term reductions in the plume concentrations and mass are smaller, but the source longevity can be greatly reduced. In either case, the source remediation effort is much more effective if it is undertaken at an early time, before much contaminant mass has entered the plume. If the remediation effort is significantly delayed, the leading parts of the plume are not affected by the source remediation, and additional control or remediation of the plume itself is required.     

Quantitative evaluation of XAD-8 and XAD-4 resins used in tandem for removing organic solutes from water

The combined XAD-8 and XAD-4 resin procedure for the isolation of dissolved organic solutes from water was found to isolate 85% or more of the organic solutes from Lake Skjervatjern in Norway. Approximately 65% of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was first removed on XAD-8 resin, and then an additional 20% of the DOC was removed on XAD-4 resin. Approximately 15% of the DOC solutes (primarily hydrophilic neutrals) were not sorbed or concentrated by the procedure. Of the 65% of the solutes removed on XAD-8 resin, 40% were fulvic acids, 16% were humic acids, and 9% were hydrophobic neutrals. Approximately 20% of the hydrophilic solutes that pass through the XAD-8 resin were sorbed solutes on the second resin, XAD-4 (i.e., they were hydrophobic relative to the XAD-4 resin). The fraction sorbed on XAD-4 resin was called XAD-4 acids because it represented approximately 85–90% of the hydrophilic XAD-8 acid fraction according to the original XAD-8 fractionation procedure. The recovery of hydrophobic acids (fulvic acids and humic acids) and the hydrophobic neutral fraction from XAD-8 resin was essentially quantitative at 96%, 98%, and 86%, respectively. The recovery of XAD-4 acids from the XAD-4 resin was only about 50%. The exact reason for this moderately low recovery is unknown, but could result from π-π bonding between these organic solutes and the aromatic matrix of XAD-4. The hydrophobic/hydrophilic solute separation on XAD-8 resin for water from background Side A and Side B of the lake was almost identical at 65 and 67%, respectively. This result suggested that both sides of the lake are similar in organic chemical composition even though the DOC variation from side to side is 20%.