Semi-parametric statistical approaches for space-time process prediction

The problem of estimation and prediction of a spatial-temporal stochastic process, observed at regular times and irregularly in space, is considered. A mixed formulation involving a non- parametric component, accounting for a deterministic trend and the effect of exogenous variables, and a parametric component representing the purely spatio-temporal random variation is proposed. Correspondingly, a two-step procedure, first addressing the estimation of the non- parametric component, and then the estimation of the parametric component is developed from the residual series obtained, with spatial-temporal prediction being performed in terms of suitable spatial interpolation of the temporal variation structure. The proposed model formula-tion, together with the estimation and prediction procedure, are applied using a Gaussian ARMA structure for temporal modelling to space-time forecasting from real data of air pollution concentration levels in the region surrounding a power station in northwest Spain.     

Characterization of Organic Compounds in Compost-Amended Soil

Samples of compost-amended soil from waste dumping sites in Lagos Metropolis were extracted with dichloromethane (3 × 20 cm³) and the extract was evaporated at 35 °>C. The residue was extracted with 2,2,4-trimethylpentane, and portions of the solution were applied to a column containing silica gel from which aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons were eluted with n-hexane and toluene respectively. Analysis of the n-hexane fraction using gas chromatography showed the presence of a mixture of aliphatic hydrocarbons, ranging from C₉ to C₂₅, while ultraviolet analysis of the toluene fraction suggested 1,2-benzanthracene; 2,3-benzphenanthrene, chrysene and pyrene as polyaromatic compounds present in samples analyzed. The crude extracts were highly coloured and viscous. Total extractable organic residues in the 2,2,4-trimethylpentane extracts ranged from 36 to 89 mg g^-1 of soil.     

Design approaches for a cycling adsorbent/photocatalyst system for indoor air purification: formaldehyde example

A kinetic model for a cycling adsorbent/photocatalyst combination for formaldehyde removal in indoor air (Chin et al. J. Catalysis 2006, 237, 29-37) was previously developed in our lab, demonstrating agreement with lab-scale batch operation data of other researchers (Shiraishi et al. Chem. Engineer. Sci. 2003, 58, 929-934). Model parameters evaluated included adsorption equilibrium and rate constants for the adsorbent (activated carbon) honeycomb rotor, and catalytic rate constant for pseudo-first-order formaldehyde destruction in the titanium dioxide photoreactor. This paper explores design consequences for this novel system. In particular, the batch parameter values are used to model both adsorbent and photocatalyst behavior for continuous operation in typical residential home challenges. Design variables, including realistic make-up air fraction, adsorbent honeycomb rotation speed, and formaldehyde source emission rate, are considered to evaluate the ability of the system to achieve World Health Organization pollutant guidelines. In all circumstances, the size of the required rotating adsorbent bed and photoreactor for single-stage operation and the resultant formaldehyde concentration in the home are calculated. The ability of how well such a system might be accommodated within the typical dimensions of commercial ventilation ducts is also considered.     

Reverse logistics in the Brazilian construction industry

In Brazil most Construction and Demolition Waste (C&D waste) is not recycled. This situation is expected to change significantly, since new federal regulations oblige municipalities to create and implement sustainable C&D waste management plans which assign an important role to recycling activities. The recycling organizational network and its flows and components are fundamental to C&D waste recycling feasibility. Organizational networks, flows and components involve reverse logistics. The aim of this work is to introduce the concepts of reverse logistics and reverse distribution channel networks and to study the Brazilian C&D waste case.     

Predictive Model of Avian Electrocution Risk on Overhead Power Lines

Electrocution on overhead power structures negatively affects avian populations in diverse ecosystems worldwide, contributes to the endangerment of raptor populations in Europe and Africa, and is a major driver of legal action against electric utilities in North America. We investigated factors associated with avian electrocutions so poles that are likely to electrocute a bird can be identified and retrofitted prior to causing avian mortality. We used historical data from southern California to identify patterns of avian electrocution by voltage, month, and year to identify species most often killed by electrocution in our study area and to develop a predictive model that compared poles where an avian electrocution was known to have occurred (electrocution poles) with poles where no known electrocution occurred (comparison poles). We chose variables that could be quantified by personnel with little training in ornithology or electric systems. Electrocutions were more common at distribution voltages (≤33 kV) and during breeding seasons and were more commonly reported after a retrofitting program began. Red‐tailed Hawks (Buteo jamaicensis) (n = 265) and American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) (n = 258) were the most commonly electrocuted species. In the predictive model, 4 of 14 candidate variables were required to distinguish electrocution poles from comparison poles: number of jumpers (short wires connecting energized equipment), number of primary conductors, presence of grounding, and presence of unforested unpaved areas as the dominant nearby land cover. When tested against a sample of poles not used to build the model, our model distributed poles relatively normally across electrocution‐risk values and identified the average risk as higher for electrocution poles relative to comparison poles. Our model can be used to reduce avian electrocutions through proactive identification and targeting of high‐risk poles for retrofitting. Modelo Predictivo del Riesgo de Electrocución de Aves en Líneas Eléctricas Elevadas     

Two Hundred Years of Local Avian Extinctions in Eastern Amazonia

Local, regional, and global extinctions caused by habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation have been widely reported for the tropics. The patterns and drivers of this loss of species are now increasingly well known in Amazonia, but there remains a significant gap in understanding of long‐term trends in species persistence and extinction in anthropogenic landscapes. Such a historical perspective is critical for understanding the status and trends of extant biodiversity as well as for identifying priorities to halt further losses. Using extensive historical data sets of specimen records and results of contemporary surveys, we searched for evidence of local extinctions of a terra firma rainforest avifauna over 200 years in a 2500 km² eastern Amazonian region around the Brazilian city of Belém. This region has the longest history of ornithological fieldwork in the entire Amazon basin and lies in the highly threatened Belém Centre of Endemism. We also compared our historically inferred extinction events with extensive data on species occurrences in a sample of catchments in a nearby municipality (Paragominas) that encompass a gradient of past forest loss. We found evidence for the possible extinction of 47 species (14% of the regional species pool) that were unreported from 1980 to 2013 (80% last recorded between 1900 and 1980). Seventeen species appear on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, and many of these are large‐bodied. The species lost from the region immediately around Belém are similar to those which are currently restricted to well‐forested catchments in Paragominas. Although we anticipate the future rediscovery or recolonization of some species inferred to be extinct by our calculations, we also expect that there are likely to be additional local extinctions, not reported here, given the ongoing loss and degradation of remaining areas of native vegetation across eastern Amazonia. Doscientos Años de Extinciones Locales de Aves en la Amazonia Oriental     

Defining and Evaluating the Umbrella Species Concept for Conserving and Restoring Landscape Connectivity

Conserving or restoring landscape connectivity between patches of breeding habitat is a common strategy to protect threatened species from habitat fragmentation. By managing connectivity for some species, usually charismatic vertebrates, it is often assumed that these species will serve as conservation umbrellas for other species. We tested this assumption by developing a quantitative method to measure overlap in dispersal habitat of 3 threatened species—a bird (the umbrella), a butterfly, and a frog—inhabiting the same fragmented landscape. Dispersal habitat was determined with Circuitscape, which was parameterized with movement data collected for each species. Despite differences in natural history and breeding habitat, we found substantial overlap in the spatial distributions of areas important for dispersal of this suite of taxa. However, the intuitive umbrella species (the bird) did not have the highest overlap with other species in terms of the areas that supported connectivity. Nevertheless, we contend that when there are no irreconcilable differences between the dispersal habitats of species that cohabitate on the landscape, managing for umbrella species can help conserve or restore connectivity simultaneously for multiple threatened species with different habitat requirements. Definición y Evaluación del Concepto de Especie Paraguas para Conservar y Restaurar la Conectividad de Paisajes     

The flux of radionuclides in flowback fluid from shale gas exploitation

This study considers the flux of radioactivity in flowback fluid from shale gas development in three areas: the Carboniferous, Bowland Shale, UK; the Silurian Shale, Poland; and the Carboniferous Barnett Shale, USA. The radioactive flux from these basins was estimated, given estimates of the number of wells developed or to be developed, the flowback volume per well and the concentration of K (potassium) and Ra (radium) in the flowback water. For comparative purposes, the range of concentration was itself considered within four scenarios for the concentration range of radioactive measured in each shale gas basin, the groundwater of the each shale gas basin, global groundwater and local surface water. The study found that (i) for the Barnett Shale and the Silurian Shale, Poland, the 1 % exceedance flux in flowback water was between seven and eight times that would be expected from local groundwater. However, for the Bowland Shale, UK, the 1 % exceedance flux (the flux that would only be expected to be exceeded 1 % of the time, i.e. a reasonable worst case scenario) in flowback water was 500 times that expected from local groundwater. (ii) In no scenario was the 1 % exceedance exposure greater than 1 mSv—the allowable annual exposure allowed for in the UK. (iii) The radioactive flux of per energy produced was lower for shale gas than for conventional oil and gas production, nuclear power production and electricity generated through burning coal.     

Interventions for Reducing Extinction Risk in Chytridiomycosis‐Threatened Amphibians

Wildlife diseases pose an increasing threat to biodiversity and are a major management challenge. A striking example of this threat is the emergence of chytridiomycosis. Despite diagnosis of chytridiomycosis as an important driver of global amphibian declines 15 years ago, researchers have yet to devise effective large‐scale management responses other than biosecurity measures to mitigate disease spread and the establishment of disease‐free captive assurance colonies prior to or during disease outbreaks. We examined the development of management actions that can be implemented after an epidemic in surviving populations. We developed a conceptual framework with clear interventions to guide experimental management and applied research so that further extinctions of amphibian species threatened by chytridiomycosis might be prevented. Within our framework, there are 2 management approaches: reducing Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (the fungus that causes chytridiomycosis) in the environment or on amphibians and increasing the capacity of populations to persist despite increased mortality from disease. The latter approach emphasizes that mitigation does not necessarily need to focus on reducing disease‐associated mortality. We propose promising management actions that can be implemented and tested based on current knowledge and that include habitat manipulation, antifungal treatments, animal translocation, bioaugmentation, head starting, and selection for resistance. Case studies where these strategies are being implemented will demonstrate their potential to save critically endangered species. Intervenciones para Reducir el Riesgo de Extinción en Anfibios Amenazados por la Quitridiomicosis