Carbon Monitoring Costs and their Effect on Incentives to Sequester Carbon through Forestry

Technically, forestry projects have thepotential to contribute significantly tothe mitigation of global warming, but manysuch projects may not be economicallyattractive at current estimates of carbon(C) prices. Forest C is, in a sense, a newcommodity that must be measured toacceptable standards for the commodity toexist. This will require that credible Cmeasuring and monitoring procedures be inplace. The amount of sequestered C that canbe claimed by a project is normallyestimated based on sampling a number ofsmall plots, and the precision of thisestimate depends on the number of plotssampled and on the spatial variability ofthe site. Measuring C can be expensive andhence it is important to select anefficient C-monitoring strategy to makeprojects competitive in the C market. Thispaper presents a method to determinewhether a forestry project will benefitfrom C trading, and to find the optimalmanagement strategy in terms of forestcycle length and C-monitoring strategyA model of an Acacia mangiumplantation in southern Sumatra, Indonesiais used to show that forestry projects canbe economically attractive under a range ofconditions, provided that the project islarge enough to absorb fixed costs.Modeling results indicate that between 15and 38 Mg of Certified Emission Reductions(CERs) per hectare can be captured by thesimulated plantation under optimalmanagement, with optimality defined asmaximizing the present value of profitsobtained from timber and C. The optimalcycle length ranged from 12 to 16 years andthe optimal number of sample plots rangedfrom 0 to 30. Costs of C monitoring (inpresent-value terms) were estimated to bebetween 0.45 (Mg C)^-1 to 2.11 (MgC)^-1 depending on the spatialvariability of biomass, the variable costsof C monitoring and the discount rate.     

Moving beyond “mitigation and adaptation”: examining climate change responses in New Zealand

Despite the apparent failure of international negotiations and renewed criticism of the accuracy of climate science, responses to climate change continue in households, cities, fields, and meeting rooms. Notions of “doing something about”, or “taking action on” or “mitigating and adapting” to climate change inform practices of carbon trading, restoring native forests, constructing wind turbines, insulating houses, using energy efficient light bulbs, and lobbying politicians for more or less of these actions. These expressions of agency in relation to climate change provide the focus of our enquiry. We found that relationships or social networks linked through local government are building capabilities to respond to climate change. However, the framework of “mitigation–adaptation” will need to be supplemented by a more diverse suite of mental models for making sense of climate change. Use of appropriate languages, cultural reference points, and metaphors embedded in diverse histories of climates and change will assist actors in their networked climate change responses.     

Hemin dialkylphosphate compounds

The Science of Nature -     

Birds as predators in tropical agroforestry systems

Insectivorous birds reduce arthropod abundances and their damage to plants in some, but not all, studies where predation by birds has been assessed. The variation in bird effects may be due to characteristics such as plant productivity or quality, habitat complexity, and/or species diversity of predator and prey assemblages. Since agroforestry systems vary in such characteristics, these systems provide a good starting point for understanding when and where we can expect predation by birds to be important. We analyze data from bird exclosure studies in forests and agroforestry systems to ask whether birds consistently reduce their arthropod prey base and whether bird predation differs between forests and agroforestry systems. Further, we focus on agroforestry systems to ask whether the magnitude of bird predation (1) differs between canopy trees and understory plants, (2) differs when migratory birds are present or absent, and (3) correlates with bird abundance and diversity. We found that, across all studies, birds reduce all arthropods, herbivores, carnivores, and plant damage. We observed no difference in the magnitude of bird effects between agroforestry systems and forests despite simplified habitat structure and plant diversity in agroforests. Within agroforestry systems, bird reduction of arthropods was greater in the canopy than the crop layer. Top-down effects of bird predation were especially strong during censuses when migratory birds were present in agroforestry systems. Importantly, the diversity of the predator assemblage correlated with the magnitude of predator effects; where the diversity of birds, especially migratory birds, was greater, birds reduced arthropod densities to a greater extent. We outline potential mechanisms for relationships between bird predator, insect prey, and habitat characteristics, and we suggest future studies using tropical agroforests as a model system to further test these areas of ecological theory.     

A physically based statistical model of sand abrasion effects on periphyton biomass

The magnitude and frequency of discharge and fine sediment delivery to rivers can influence riverine food webs through the frequency of scour of algae from the streambed. Models that simulate changes in algal biomass are not very accurate for long periods with frequent low-magnitude flow events. During these periods, sand is mobilized over a stable gravel bed and periphyton losses are patchy at the reach scale. At the patch scale, we examine if an established threshold for rapid sand transport is also a periphyton perturbation threshold. We also develop and validate a statistical rock scale periphyton saltation abrasion model (PSAM) to simulate the abrasive effects of sand, transported by a hopping motion called saltation, on post-flow event biomass. Data were collected from 15 riffles of a Canadian Atlantic salmon river. The threshold clearly divided bed patches with high biomass and low transport rates, from those patches with low biomass and high transport rates. A dimensionally balanced PSAM regression model including explained 57% of the variance in post-flow event biomass. The validated model indicates that periphyton biomass decreases with increasing sand transport rates . Biomass was higher if the microscopic algae were protected from abrasion by growing either above the near-bed layer of saltating sand or within a mat containing more resistant macroalgae (e.g. Nostoc). The use of in our models facilitates testing of our findings in other hydro-sedimentary environments because W^* is a dimensionless scaling parameter that is well established in sediment transport literature. New insight is provided regarding modelling local heterogeneity in post-flow event biomass. These developments are essential to enable more accurate assessments of how periphyton biomass will change with the increase in the recurrence frequency of small flow events (and sand supply) associated with urbanization and climate change.     

Clustering of the abundance of West Nile virus vector mosquitoes in Peel Region,Ontario, Canada

Understanding the spatial–temporal distribution of vector mosquitoes is essential in designing an efficient mosquito control strategy to reduce the risk of the mosquito-borne disease. In this paper, we apply a non-parametric clustering method, CLUES, to the surveillance data of West Nile virus vector mosquitoes collected by light traps in Peel Region, Ontario, during the mosquito seasons in 2004–2010. In order to obtain robust and reliable results, a statistical smoothing procedure LOWESS is applied to the original time series data. It was found that the mosquito trap sites can be clustered into three groups. The weather impact on the mosquito abundance of each clustered group are similar, while the interannual variability and the highest abundance and peak time in each mosquito season are different. The impact of weather factors on this clustering is investigated.     

The scale and cause of spatial heterogeneity in strength of temporal density dependence

The importance of density dependence in natural communities continues to spark much debate because it is fundamental to population regulation. We used temporal manipulations of density to explore potentially stabilizing density dependence in early survivorship among six local populations of a tropical damselfish (Dascyllus flavicaudus). Specifically, we tested the premise that spatial heterogeneity in the strength of temporal density dependence would reflect variation in density of predators, the agent of mortality. Our field manipulations revealed that mortality among successive cohorts of young fishes was density dependent at each reef, but that its strength varied by approximately 1.5 orders of magnitude. This spatial heterogeneity was well predicted by variation among the six reefs in the density of predatory fishes that consume juvenile damselfishes. Because density dependence arose from competition for enemy-free space within a shelter coral, the mortality consequence of the competition depended on the neighborhood density of predators. Thus, the scale of heterogeneity in the density dependence largely reflected attributes of the environment that shaped the local abundance of predators. These results have important implications for how ecologists explore regulatory processes in nature. Failure to account for spatial variation could frequently yield misleading conclusions regarding density dependence as a stabilizing process, obscure underlying mechanisms influencing its strength, and provide no insight into the spatial scale of the heterogeneity. Further, models of population dynamics will be improved when experimental approaches better estimate the magnitude and causes of variation in strength of stabilizing density dependence.     

Genetic structure of the southeastern United States loggerhead turtle nesting aggregation: evidence of additional structure within the peninsular Florida recovery unit

The southeastern United States supports one of two large loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting aggregations worldwide and is therefore critical to global conservation and recovery efforts for the species. Previous studies have established the presence of four demographically distinct nesting populations (management units) corresponding to beaches from (1) North Carolina through northeastern Florida, (2) peninsular Florida, (3) the Dry Tortugas, and (4) northwest Florida. Temporal and geographic genetic structure of the nesting aggregation was examined utilizing partial mitochondrial control region haplotype frequencies from 834 samples collected over the 2002 through 2008 nesting seasons from 19 beaches as well as previously published haplotype data. Most rookeries did not exhibit interannual genetic variation. However, the interannual variation detected did significantly impact the interpretation of spatial genetic structure in northeastern Florida. Based on pairwise F _ST comparisons, exact tests of population differentiation, and analysis of molecular variance, the present study upholds the distinctiveness of the four currently recognized management units and further supports recognition of discrete central eastern, southern (southeastern and southwestern), and central western Florida management units. Further subdivision may be warranted, but more intensive genetic sampling is required. In addition, tools such as telemetry and mark-recapture are needed to complement genetic data and overcome limitations of genetic markers in resolving loggerhead turtle rookery connectivity in the southeastern USA.