Estimating the mitigation effect of Tokai earthquake measures on housing damage: a counterfactual approach

This paper evaluates the mitigation effect of Tokai earthquake measures on housing damage using a counterfactual approach. It focuses on those measures that stimulate ex‐ante investment in disaster prevention in the supposedly affected area, including earthquake‐proof retrofitting and improved housing construction; the effect of the measures on housing losses is estimated monetarily. The study compares factual disaster damage computed using a real distribution of houses with counterfactual damage to a hypothetical housing distribution that would occur if the measures were not implemented. The key findings are: (i) the disaster mitigation effects of Tokai earthquake measures on housing amount to approximately JPY 18 billion (USD 0.18 billion) for Yamanashi Prefecture and JPY 0.26 trillion (USD 2.6 billion) for Shizuoka Prefecture, which would be at the centre of the event; (ii) a before–after comparison biases estimates of the mitigation effect; and (iii) statistically, the measures do not mitigate the housing damage predicted for an earthquake in Tokai.     

Mid‐Range Streamflow Forecasts Based on Climate Modeling – Statistical Correction and Evaluation1

Abstract: Mid‐range streamflow predictions are extremely important for managing water resources. The ability to provide mid‐range (three to six months) streamflow forecasts enables considerable improvements in water resources system operations. The skill and economic value of such forecasts are of great interest. In this research, output from a general circulation model (GCM) is used to generate hydrologic input for mid‐range streamflow forecasts. Statistical procedures including: (1) transformation, (2) correction, (3) observation of ensemble average, (4) improvement of forecast, and (5) forecast skill test are conducted to minimize the error associated with different spatial resolution between the large‐scale GCM and the finer‐scale hydrologic model and to improve forecast skills. The accuracy of a streamflow forecast generated using a hydrologic model forced with GCM output for the basin was evaluated by forecast skill scores associated with the set of streamflow forecast values in a categorical forecast. Despite the generally low forecast skill score exhibited by the climate forecasting approach, precipitation forecast skill clearly improves when a conditional forecast is performed during the East Asia summer monsoon, June through August.     

Effects of driving conditions on diesel exhaust particulates

Four driving conditions were examined to characterize how speeds and loads of a medium-duty diesel engine affect resultant diesel exhaust particulates (DEPs) in terms of number concentrations (< or =400 nm), size distribution, persistent free radicals, elemental carbon (EC), and organic carbon (OC). At the medium engine load (60%), DEPs surged in number concentrations at around 40-70 nm, whereas DEPs from the full engine load (100%) showed a distinctive bimodal distribution with a large population of 30-50 nm and 100-400 nm. Under the full engine load, engine speeds insignificantly affected resultant DEP number concentrations. When the engine load decreased from 100% to the medium level (60%), DEPs of ultrafine size and 100-400 nm decreased at least 1.4 times (from 5.6 x 10(8) to 4 x 10(8) #/cm3) and more than 3 times (from 2.7 x 10(8) to 0.8 x 10(8) #/cm3), respectively. The same reduction in the engine load significantly decreased persistent free radicals in DEPs up to approximately 30 times (from 123 x 10(16) to 4 x 10(16) #spin/g). Decreasing the engine load from 100 to 60% also concurrently reduced both EC and OC in total DEPs around 2 times, from 27.3 to 13.9 mg/m3, and from 17.6 to 9.2 mg/m3, respectively. For DEPs smaller than 1 microm, under the full engine load, EC and OC consistently peaked at 170-330 nm under an engine speed of 1800 rpm or 94-170 nm under an engine speed of 3000 rpm, reflecting processes of nucleation, cluster-cluster agglomeration, and condensation. Decreasing the engine load from 100 to 60% reduced EC and OC in DEPs (smaller than 1 microm) at least 3 times (0.6 to 0.2 mg/m3) and 2 times (0.4 to 0.2 mg/m3), respectively. Taken together, decreasing the full engine load to a medium (60%) level effectively reduced the number concentrations (< or =400 nm), persistent free radicals, EC, and OC of total DEPs, as well as the concentration of EC and OC in ultrafine and accumulation-mode DEPs.     

Formation of chlorinated phenols, dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans, benzenes, benzoquinnones and perchloroethylenes from phenols in oxidative and copper (II) chloride-catalyzed thermal process

Formation of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), and chlorinated phenols on CuCl(2) from unsubstituted phenol and three monochlorophenols was studied in a flow reactor over a temperature range of 100-425 degrees C. Heated nitrogen gas streams containing 8.0% oxygen were used as carrier gas. The 0.00024mol of unsubstituted phenol and 0.00039mol of each monochlorophenol were passed through a 1g and 1cm SiO(2) particle containing 0.5% (Cu by mass) CuCl(2). Chlorination preferentially occurred on ortho-(2, 6) and para-(4) positions. Chlorination increased up to 200 degrees C, and thereafter decreased as temperature increased. Chlorination of phenols plays an important role in the formation of the more chlorinated PCDD/Fs. Chlorinated benzenes are formed possibly from both chlorination of benzene and chlorodehydroxylation of phenols. Chlorinated phenols with ortho chlorine formed PCDD products, and major PCDD products were produced via loss of one chlorine. For PCDF formation, at least one unchlorinated ortho carbon was required.     

Ecological effects of imidacloprid on arthropod communities in and around a vegetable crop

To elucidate the ecological impacts of imidacloprid [1-(6-chloro-3-pyridylmethyl)-N-nitroimidazolidin-2-ylideneamine] on vegetable crops and their surrounding areas, arthropods on eggplant patches treated with this insecticide were monitored throughout two cultivation seasons, spring and autumn, and the results compared with those of control crops. Residues of imidacloprid in soil accounted for 4-8% of total applied, and concentrations outside the crop were always below 5 micro g/kg. Communities of the crop vegetation experienced significant density reductions, mostly of aphids, and had fewer species diversity during the first month. Those in the surrounding pasture were similarly affected though with less intensity, while non-target ground arthropods both inside and outside the crop only showed significant impacts in the two weeks after planting.     

Crustacean habitat potential mapping in a tidal flat using remote sensing and GIS

To make a macrofaunal (crustacean) habitat potential map, the spatial distribution of ecological variables in the Hwangdo tidal flat, Korea, was explored. Spatial variables were mapped using remote sensing and a geographic information system (GIS) combined with field observations. A frequency ratio (FR) and logistic regression (LR) model were employed to map the macrofauna potential area for the Ilyoplax dentimerosa, a crustacean species. Spatial variables affecting the tidal macrofauna distribution were selected based on abundance and biomass and used within a spatial database derived from remotely sensed data of various types of sensors. The spatial variables included the intertidal digital elevation model (DEM), slope, distance from a tidal channel, tidal channel density, surface sediment facies, spectral reflectance of the near infrared (NIR) bands and the tidal exposure duration. The relation between the I. dentimerosa and each spatial variable was calculated using the FR and LR. The species was randomly divided into a training set (70%) to analyse habitat potential using FR and LR and a test set (30%) to validate the predicted habitat potential map. The relations were overlaid to produce a habitat potential map with the species potential index (SPI) value for each pixel. The potential habitat maps were compared with the surveyed habitat locations such as validation data set. The comparison results showed that the LR model (accuracy is 85.28%) is better in prediction than the FR (accuracy is 78.96%) model. The performance of models gave satisfactory accuracies. The LR provides the quantitative influence of variables on a potential habitat of species; otherwise, the FR shows the quantitative influence of a class in each variable. The combination of a GIS-based frequency ratio and logistic regression models and remote sensing with field observations is an effective method to determine locations favorable for macrofaunal species occurrences in a tidal flat.