Application of fuzzy logic to explosion risk assessment

Safety and health of workers potentially being at risk from explosive atmospheres are regulated by separate regulations (ANSI/AIHA in USA and ATEX in the European Union). The ANSI/AIHA does not require risk assessment whereas it is compulsory for ATEX. There is no standard method to do that assessment. For that purpose we have applied the explosion Layer of Protection Analysis (ExLOPA), which enables semi-quantitative risk assessment for process plants where explosive atmospheres occur. The ExLOPA is based on the original work of CCPS for LOPA taking into account an explosion accident scenario at workplace. That includes typical variables appropriate for workplace explosion like occurrence of the explosive atmosphere, the presence of effective ignition sources, activity of the explosion prevention and mitigation independent protection layers as well as the severity of consequences. All those variables are expressed in the form of qualitative linguistic categories and relations between them are presented using expert based engineering knowledge, expressed in the form of appropriate set of rules. In this way the category of explosion risk may be estimated by the semi-quantitative analysis. However, this simplified method is connected with essential uncertainties providing over or under estimation of the explosion risk and may not provide real output data.In order to overcome this problem and receive more detailed quantitative results, the fuzzy logic system was applied. In the first stage called fuzzification, all linguistic categories of the variables are mapped by fuzzy sets. In the second stage, the number of relation between all variables of analysis are determined by the enumerative combinatorics and the set of the 810 fuzzy rules “IF-THEN” is received. Each rule enables determination of the fuzzy risk level for a particular accident scenario. In the last stage, called defuzzification, the crisp value of final risk is obtained using a centroid method. The final result of the risk presents a contribution of each risk category represented by the fuzzy sets (A, TA, TNA and NA) and is therefore more precise and readable than the traditional approach producing one category of risk only. Fuzzy logic gives a possibility of better insights into hazards and safety phenomena for each explosion risk scenario. It is not possible to receive such conclusions from the traditional ExLOPA calculation results. However it requires the application of computer-aided analyses which may be partially in conflict with a simplicity of ExLOPA.The practical example provides a comparison between the traditional results obtained by ExLOPA and by fuzzy ExLOPA methods.     

Interrogating Social Sustainability in the Biofuels Sector in Latin America: Tensions Between Global Standards and Local Experiences in Mexico,Brazil, and Colombia

Across the Americas, biofuels production systems are diverse due to geographic conditions, historical patterns of land tenure, different land use patterns, government policy frameworks, and relations between the national state and civil society, all of which shape the role that biofuels play in individual nations. Although many national governments throughout the Americas continue to incentivize growth of the biofuels industry, one key challenge for biofuels sustainability has been concern about its social impacts. In this article, we discuss some of the key social issues and tensions related to the recent expansion of biofuels production in Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil. We argue that a process of “simplification” of ecological and cultural diversity has aided the expansion of the biofuels frontier in these countries, but is also undermining their viability. We consider the ability of governments and non-state actors in multi-stakeholder initiatives (MSI) to address social and environmental concerns that affect rural livelihoods as a result of biofuels expansion. We analyze the tensions between global sustainability standards, national level policies for biofuels development, and local level impacts and visions of sustainability. We find that both government and MSI efforts to address sustainability concerns have limited impact, and recommend greater incorporation of local needs and expertise to improve governance.     

Bridging Disciplines, Knowledge Systems and Cultures in Pest Management

The success of research in integrated environmental and natural resource management relies on the participation and involvement of different disciplines and stakeholders. This can be difficult to achieve in practice because many initiatives fail to address the underlying social processes required for successful engagement and social learning. We used an action research approach to support a research-based group with a range of disciplinary and stakeholder expertise to critically reflect on their engagement practice and identify lessons around how to collaborate more effectively. This approach is provided here as a guide that can be used to support reflective research practice for engagement in other integration-based initiatives. This paper is set in the context of an integrated wildlife management research case study in New Zealand. We illustrate how multi-, inter- and trans-disciplinary approaches can provide a framework for considering the different conversations that need to occur in an integrated research program. We then outline rubrics that list the criteria required in inter- and trans-disciplinary collaborations, along with examples of effective engagement processes that directly support integration through such efforts. Finally, we discuss the implications of these experiences for other researchers and managers seeking to improve engagement and collaboration in integrated science, management and policy initiatives. Our experiences reaffirm the need for those involved in integrative initiatives to attend to the processes of engagement in both formal and informal settings, to provide opportunities for critical reflective practice, and to look for measures of success that acknowledge the importance of effective social process.     

Climate and human impact on lowland lake sedimentation in Central Coastal California: the record from c. 650 ad to the present

The limnological record of human impact on catchment land cover and on lake sedimentation during the historical period has been established for Pinto Lake in Central Coastal California. In addition, the sedimentary record of the ‘pre-impact’ condition preserves evidence of a climatic control on the nature of lake sedimentation. Chronological marker horizons have been determined using pollen data in combination with the documented land-use history and introductions of exotic species. Further chronological data have been determined using ¹⁴C and ¹³⁷Cs. The impact of Mexican and Euro-American immigrants and their ‘imported’ land-use practices is clearly reflected in an order of magnitude increase in the rate of lake sedimentation to c. 9 kg m⁻² year⁻¹ (c. 2 cm year⁻¹) between 1770 and 1850. Here, the occurrence of exotic plant species indicates disturbance as early as c. 1769–1797, whilst redwood deforestation between 1844 and 1860 represents the most significant human impact. Changes in the nature of sedimentation prior to this reveal a high degree of sensitivity to changes in precipitation where subtle decreases in lake level and the supply of runoff-derived mineral matter have resulted in two periods of organic lake sedimentation c. 650–900 and 1275–1750. Set against this background condition of high sensitivity, the dramatic impacts of Euro-American settlement are unsurprising. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Detecting Insect Pollinator Declines on Regional and Global Scales

Recently there has been considerable concern about declines in bee communities in agricultural and natural habitats. The value of pollination to agriculture, provided primarily by bees, is >$200 billion/year worldwide, and in natural ecosystems it is thought to be even greater. However, no monitoring program exists to accurately detect declines in abundance of insect pollinators; thus, it is difficult to quantify the status of bee communities or estimate the extent of declines. We used data from 11 multiyear studies of bee communities to devise a program to monitor pollinators at regional, national, or international scales. In these studies, 7 different methods for sampling bees were used and bees were sampled on 3 different continents. We estimated that a monitoring program with 200–250 sampling locations each sampled twice over 5 years would provide sufficient power to detect small (2–5%) annual declines in the number of species and in total abundance and would cost U.S.$2,000,000. To detect declines as small as 1% annually over the same period would require >300 sampling locations. Given the role of pollinators in food security and ecosystem function, we recommend establishment of integrated regional and international monitoring programs to detect changes in pollinator communities. Detección de Declinaciones de Insectos Polinizadores a Escalas Regional y Global     

How to consolidate Trevor’s experience and knowledge? Impossibilities,reflections on possibilities,and call to action

Looking back, significant progress in process safety and the knowledge to achieve a safe level has been made. Professor Kletz with his wise and concise maxims has shown us in many respects the way to go, yet more direction is needed for transfer of this knowledge to new generations. After a brief problem analysis, a sketch is given of various developments in the field of process safety, such as our knowledge on hazardous properties, hazard and risk analysis tools, human aspects, trends and developments in industry, and future perspectives. Subsequently, an analysis is made of the knowledge infrastructure required to maintain and to improve a knowledge base. In particular, scenario identification and modeling is mentioned. To that end the ‘lessons learned’ in the past should be better used. This has proven not to be easy. A way to go is indicated that in the longer term may reap success. However, in the present climate, funds for research are scarce and that for safety research are scant. Research is not only to develop new knowledge but is also of crucial importance to maintain quality academic education and the formation of ‘teacher of teachers’. A recent initiative is reported to bring this problem to the attention of policy makers worldwide.     

Experimental measurement and numerical analysis of binary hydrocarbon mixture flammability limits

The flammability limits of binary hydrocarbon mixtures in air were measured in a combustion apparatus using an innovative method developed for this apparatus. The experimental results were obtained at standard conditions (room temperature and ambient atmospheric pressure) with upward flame propagation. The experimentally determined flammability limits for pure hydrocarbons (methane and ethylene) were compared with existing data reported in the literature. Le Chatelier's Law was fit to all experimental data to obtain LFLs and UFLs for various two-component combinations of saturated and unsaturated hydrocarbons (methane, ethylene, acetylene, propane, propylene, and n-butane). A modification of this law was used if experimental observations showed large deviations from Le Chatelier's predictions. Also, experimentally measured flammability limit data of the binary hydrocarbon mixtures were analytically related to the stoichiometric concentrations.     

Sizing and Costing of Electrostatic Precipitators

This is the second of a two-part article that reviews electrostatic precipitation theory, presents size estimating methods, and gives costing procedures for a variety of electrostatic precipitator (ESP) types and sizes. Part I of the article, which appeared in the April 1988 issue of JAPCA, discussed theory and sizing; this part presents costing. Information is given for estimating total capital investment including separate costs for the bare ESP (five types) and auxiliaries. Factors are given for installation and for indirect costs. Direct and indirect annual costs are discussed. An example problem is given.     

Uncertainty techniques in liquefied natural gas (LNG) dispersion calculations

The dynamic development of the LNG sector increases the risk of major accidents. Uncontrolled releases of LNG during the processes of manufacturing, distribution, storage, and regasification can pose a serious threat to people, facilities, and the environment. Therefore, an important goal is to determine hazard zones and the extent of potential consequences associated with a release of LNG. The key issue is to estimate these with the least level of uncertainty. The largest part of uncertainty comes from the modeling of LNG release sources and performing dispersion calculations. It is connected with the application of different mathematical models, the adoption of a number of simplifying assumptions, approximations, empirical relations, constants, and a lack of knowledge.This paper proposes a general procedure for calculating the release rate and duration time of the LNG release, pool spreading, vaporization, as well as dispersion, taking into consideration the uncertainty. The procedure consists of two parts. The first part concerns the sensitivity analysis to identify the most uncertain parameters of the LNG source term and dispersion models. The second part applies to two techniques used to include the uncertainty aspects of fuzzy sets and the Monte Carlo method for calculating hazard zones. In order to provide a basis for comparison between these two approaches, the shape of the membership functions used in the fuzzy methods are the same as the shape of the probability density function used in the Monte Carlo simulation. The case study, concerning an LNG release, illustrates the application of the proposed techniques.