Seveso Women's Health Study: does zone of residence predict individual TCDD exposure?

The compound, 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), is produced as an unwanted by-product of various chemical reactions and combustion processes, including the manufacture of chlorinated phenols and derivatives. In animals, TCDD exposure is associated with toxic, carcinogenic, developmental, and reproductive effects. In 1976, a chemical plant explosion in Seveso, Italy, exposed the residents in the surrounding community to the highest exposure to TCDD known in humans. Materials from an aerosol cloud of sodium hydroxide, sodium trichlorophenate and TCDD were deposited over an 18.1 km2 area. As evidence of the significant level of TCDD exposure, numerous animals died and 193 cases of chloracne were reported among residents of the area. Initially, the contaminated area was divided into three major exposure Zones (A, B, R) based on the concentration of TCDD in surface soils. To date, the majority of epidemiologic studies conducted in Seveso have used Zone of residence as a proxy measure of exposure. The purpose of the present study is to validate the use of Zone of residence in Seveso as a proxy measure of exposure against individual serum TCDD measurement, and to determine whether questionnaire information can improve the accuracy of the exposure classification. Using data collected from the Seveso Women's Health Study (SWHS), the first comprehensive epidemiologic study of the reproductive health of women in Seveso, we determined that Zone of residence is a good predictor of individual serum TCDD level, explaining 24% of the variance. Using questionnaire information could have improved prediction of individual exposure levels in Seveso, increasing the percent of the variation in serum TCDD levels explained to 42%.     

Assessing the recovery of lakes in southeastern Canada from the effects of acidic deposition

Reductions in North American sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions promoted expectations that aquatic ecosystems in southeastern Canada would soon recover from acidification. Only lakes located near smelters that have dramatically reduced emissions approach this expectation. Lakes in the Atlantic provinces, Quebec and Ontario affected only by long-range sources show a general decline in sulfate (SO4(2-)) concentrations, but with a relatively smaller compensating increase in pH or alkalinity. Several factors may contribute to the constrained (or most likely delayed) acidity response: declining base cation concentrations, drought-induced mobilization of SO4(2-), damaged internal alkalinity generation mechanisms, and perhaps increasing nitrate or organic anion levels. Monitoring to detect biological recovery in southeastern Canada is extremely limited, but where it occurs, there is little evidence of recovery outside of the Sudbury/Killarney area. Both the occurrence of Atlantic salmon in Nova Scotia rivers and the breeding success of Common Loons in Ontario lakes are in fact declining although factors beyond acidification also play a role. Chemical and biological models predict that much greater SO2 emission reductions than those presently required by legislation will be needed to promote widespread chemical and latterly, biological recovery. It may be unrealistic to expect that pre-industrial chemical and biological conditions can ever be reestablished in many lakes of southeastern Canada.     

Flammability of heat transfer fluid aerosols produced by electrospray measured by laser diffraction analysis

Accidental release of pressurized high flash point heat transfer fluids can result in fire and explosion hazard scenarios in the process industry. An experimental investigation on ignition of aerosols of a heat transfer fluid is carried out, and characterization of aerosol and its ignition process by non-intrusive laser diffraction technique is reported. Propagation speed of the aerosol combustion flame front as analyzed from the laser diffraction measurement agrees with high-speed visual camera observation. Flammability of the aerosol, which is based on the chances of the global flame appearance in the aerosol, is mainly controlled by aerosol droplet size and the droplet volume concentration.     

Risk measures constituting a risk metrics which enables improved decision making: Value-at-Risk

In this work, a novel approach is proposed for expressing the risks of process plants consisting of a large number of scenarios, in the form of a risk metrics of leading indicators to prevent potential high profile industry accidents. The methodology includes: 1) risk estimation of a portfolio by CPQRA (or QRA), 2) monetization of the tangible risks with the inclusion of the lost time of production, 3) estimation of the maximum portfolio loss using Value-at-Risk approach, 4) inclusion of intangible risks using FN-curve and, 5) generation of F$-curve of tangible risks. The proposed methodology can particularly help in understanding the stakes at risk by performing the overall cost-benefit analysis, for identifying the most risky scenarios and identifying critical equipments to enable better risk-informed decision making in order to adopt appropriate risk mitigation measures. This work establishes the groundwork for developing measures for understanding and comparing the large number of risk values derived from QRA studies for large portfolios. It will aid in less subjective decision making as it enables the decision maker to choose the most preferred portfolio option among alternatives. Decisions made with the accurate understanding of the consequences of risks can significantly reduce potential work-related fatalities, property losses and save millions of dollars.     

Uncertainty aspects in process safety analysis

Uncertainties of input data as well as of simulation models used in process safety analysis (PSA) are key issues in the application of risk analysis results. Mostly, it is connected with an incomplete and uncertain identification of representative accident scenario (RAS) and other vague and ambiguous information required for the assessment of particular elements of risk, especially for determination of frequency as well as severity of the consequences of RAS. The authors discuss and present the sources and types of uncertainties encountered in PSA and also methods to deal with them. There are different approaches to improve such analysis including sensitivity analysis, expert method, statistics and fuzzy logic. Statistical approach uses probability distribution of the input data and fuzzy logic approach uses fuzzy sets. This paper undertakes the fuzzy approach and presents a proposal for fuzzy risk assessment. It consists of a combination of traditional part, where methods within the process hazard analysis (PHA) are used, and “fuzzy part”, applied quantitatively, where fuzzy logic system (FLS) is involved. It concerns frequency, severity of the consequences of RAS and risk evaluation. In addition, a new element called risk correction index (RCI) is introduced to take into account uncertainty concerned with the identification of RAS. The preliminary tests confirmed that the final results on risk index are more precisely and realistically determined.     

Melt Strength and Rheological Properties of Biodegradable Poly(Lactic Aacid) Modified via Alkyl Radical-Based Reactive Extrusion Processes

Poly(lactic acid) (PLA) has been modified using twin-screw reactive extrusion to improve its melt properties and crystallinity. In this work lauroyl peroxide was used as an alkyl free radical source, abstracting hydrogen atoms from the PLA backbone leading to branching and chain extension reactions. Once the linear viscoelastic region was determined for these polymers, changes in dynamic rheology (dynamic viscosity real and loss modulus) were measured. Gel permeation chromatography showed that the molecular weight and polydispersity increased to a maximum with the addition of 1.00 and 0.50?wt% peroxide, respectively. Low temperature ?? transitions in dynamical mechanical thermal traces gave further evidence that branching had also occurred. G?ttfert Rheotens measurements showed a three fold increase in melt strength due to both increased chain length and branching. Thermal analysis showed the level of crystallisation had decreased also possibly due to branching. Reductions in crystallinity and improved melt strength are known to be critical for film and foam formation.     

Historical trends of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) recorded in sediments across the Tibetan Plateau

Sediment cores from four lakes across the Tibetan Plateau were used as natural archives to study the time trends of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). The total concentrations of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (ΣDDT) and hexachlorocyclohexane isomers (ΣHCH) were in the range of 0.04–1.61 and 0.08–1.88 ng/g based on dry weight (dw), while the input fluxes were in the range of 0.3–236 and 0.7–295 pg/cm²/y in the core sediments, respectively. The input fluxes of ΣDDT and ΣHCH generally peaked in sediment layers corresponding to the 1970s–1990s and peaked in top sediment layers. The ratio of α/γ-HCH decreased in the top layer sediments, implying that the contribution of lindane (pure γ-HCH) has been increasing in recent years. In addition, the ratio of o,p′-DDT/p,p′-DDT increased significantly over the last 15–20 years, suggesting that dicofol (characterized by high ratio of o,p′-DDT/p,p′-DDT about 7.0) has recently become a relatively more important source of DDT compared to technical DDT itself. The time trends of OCPs recorded in lake sediments examined the impact on such remote alpine regions by human activities.     

Disturbance and landscape dynamics in a changing world

Disturbance regimes are changing rapidly, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems and linked social-ecological systems will be profound. This paper synthesizes current understanding of disturbance with an emphasis on fundamental contributions to contemporary landscape and ecosystem ecology, then identifies future research priorities. Studies of disturbance led to insights about heterogeneity, scale, and thresholds in space and time and catalyzed new paradigms in ecology. Because they create vegetation patterns, disturbances also establish spatial patterns of many ecosystem processes on the landscape. Drivers of global change will produce new spatial patterns, altered disturbance regimes, novel trajectories of change, and surprises. Future disturbances will continue to provide valuable opportunities for studying pattern-process interactions. Changing disturbance regimes will produce acute changes in ecosystems and ecosystem services over the short (years to decades) and long-term (centuries and beyond). Future research should address questions related to (1) disturbances as catalysts of rapid ecological change, (2) interactions among disturbances, (3) relationships between disturbance and society, especially the intersection of land use and disturbance, and (4) feedbacks from disturbance to other global drivers. Ecologists should make a renewed and concerted effort to understand and anticipate the causes and consequences of changing disturbance regimes.     

An approach for domino effect reduction based on optimal layouts

An approach to reduce the probability of producing a domino effect in process industry is developed in this work. It is assumed that optimal layouts should include appropriate analysis to reduce risk during the process design stage. The model developed for this approach combines the estimation of probability of damage due to overpressure, proposed by Mingguang and Juncheng (2008), and escalation threshold values defined by Cozzani, Gubinelli, and Salzano (2006). These equations are combined with other typical layout constraints as well as bounding the probability constraint, which has resulted in a highly non-linear MINLP problem. Solving a case study used by other authors provides evidence for reliability of the developed approach. In this way, layouts are designed to reduce the escalation probability yielding safe distributions.