A Multilevel Model of the Impact of Farm‐Level Best Management Practices on Phosphorus Runoff1

Abstract: Multilevel or hierarchical models have been applied for a number of years in the social sciences but only relatively recently in the environmental sciences. These models can be developed in either a frequentist or Bayesian context and have similarities to other methods such as empirical Bayes analysis and random coefficients regression. In essence, multilevel models take advantage of the hierarchical structure that exists in many multivariate datasets; for example, water quality measurements may be taken from individual lakes, lakes are located in various climatic zones, lakes may be natural or man‐made, and so on. The groups, or levels, may effectively yield different responses or behaviors (e.g., nutrient load response in lakes) that often make retaining group membership more effective when developing a predictive model than when working with either all of the data together or working separately with the individuals. Here, we develop a multilevel model of the impact of farm level best management practices (BMPs) on phosphorus runoff. The result of this research is a model with parameters which vary with key practice categories and thus may be used to evaluate the effectiveness of these practices on phosphorus runoff. For example, it was found that the effect of fertilizer application rate on farm‐scale phosphorus loss is a function of the application method, the hydrologic soil group, and the land use (crop type). Further, results indicate that the most effective method for controlling fertilizer loss is through soil injection. In summary, the resultant multilevel model can be used to estimate phosphorus loss from farms and hence serve as a useful tool for BMP selection.     

Convergence of Culture, Ecology, and Ethics: Management of Feral Swamp Buffalo in Northern Australia

This paper examines the identity of Asian swamp buffalo (Bubalus bubalis) from different value orientations. Buffalo were introduced into Northern (Top End) Australia in the early nineteenth century. A team of transdisciplinary researchers, including an ethicist, has been engaged in field research on feral buffalo in Arnhem Land over the past three years. Using historical documents, literature review, field observations, interviews with key informants, and interaction with the Indigenous land owners, an understanding of the diverse views on the scientific, cultural, and economic significance of buffalo was obtained. While the diverse stakeholders in buffalo exploitation and management have historically delivered divergent value orientations on the nature of the human–buffalo relationship, we argue that over time there is the possibility of values and ethical convergence. Such convergence is possible via transdisciplinary and transcultural agreement on the value stances that constitute the construction of the being or identity of buffalo in the face of the overwhelming need to manage population density and gross numbers.     

Fast firing of tiles containing paper mill sludge, glass cullet and clay

The paper describes results obtained in the development of a previous research. We study here, in fast firing, the sintering behaviour and measure some properties of tiles containing a mixture of 60 wt% of paper mill sludge and 40 wt% of glass cullet. The behaviour of this material is compared to those displayed by materials obtained by the same mixture added with 10, 20 and 30 wt% of a natural red clay. In parallel, the same properties are measured also on a reference blend, which is presently used to produce commercial tiles. We show that powders containing 60 wt% of paper sludge and 40 wt% of glass cullet to which 30 wt% of clay is added give rise to materials that display a stable sintering process and have good hardness and strength and therefore could be used for the industrial production of tiles.     

Preferred modes of travel among older adults: What factors affect the choice to walk instead of drive?

Introduction

There are many factors that influence older adults' travel choices. This paper explores the associations between mode of travel choice for a short trip and older adults' personal characteristics.

Methods

This study included 406 drivers over the age of 64 who were enrolled in a large integrated health plan in the United States between 1991 and 2001. Bivariate analyses and generalized linear modeling were used to examine associations between choosing to walk or drive and respondents' self-reported general health, physical and functional abilities, and confidence in walking and driving.

Results

Having more confidence in their ability to walk versus drive increased an older adult's likelihood of walking to make a short trip by about 20% (PR = 1.22; 95% CI: 1.06-1.40), and walking for exercise increased the likelihood by about 50% (PR = 1.53; 95% CI = 1.22-1.91). Reporting fair or poor health decreased the likelihood of walking, as did cutting down on the amount of driving due to a physical problem.

Discussion

Factors affecting a person's decision to walk for exercise may not be the same as those that influence their decision to walk as a mode of travel. It is important to understand the barriers to walking for exercise and walking for travel to develop strategies to help older adults meet both their exercise and mobility needs. Impact on Industry: Increasing walking over driving among older adults may require programs that increase confidence in walking and encourage walking for exercise.     

The major accident risk (MAR) process - developing the profile of major accident risk for a large multi national oil company

The paper describes a programme to develop the profile of major accident risk across a large multi national oil company. It describes the concepts, tools and processes for constructing the risk profile and some of the key learnings from the exercise.     

大型相连容器中火焰传播的研究

为了进一步了解相连装置中粉尘爆炸的火焰传播行为和压力发展,为该结构的安全防护设计提供有价值的信息,采用大型实验装置对相连容器中玉米淀粉/空气混合物爆炸时的火焰传播行为进行了实验研究,同时采用已开发的数值模型对实验进行仿真计算。实验表明:粉尘浓度的变化对粉尘爆炸的火焰传播行为有重要影响;在粉尘浓度很低的情况下,火焰仍然能够在管道中加速传播且爆炸发展的最终结果相当猛烈。数值模型采用欧拉-拉格朗日方法模拟两相流现象,通过求解非稳态的湍流两相反应流守恒方程对实验进行二维仿真,计算结果与实验结果符合性较好,表明该模型可以很好地应用于粉尘爆炸火焰传播的研究。     

A study on the arsenic concentration in groundwater of a coastal aquifer in south-east India: an integrated approach

The occurrence of arsenic in drinking water and its detrimental effects have drawn much attention in recent years. Several studies have been conducted in the deltaic plains of River Ganga, NE part of the India, and in other countries, but no systematic study was conducted in South India on occurrence of arsenic in groundwater. The main aim of this study is to determine the level of arsenic in groundwater and to understand the relation with other geochemical parameters of groundwater in the south-eastern coastal aquifer at Kalpakkam region, India. This region is represented by three different lithologies, viz. charnockites, flood plain alluvium and marine alluvium. Twenty-nine representative samples of groundwater were collected and analysed for major ions, metals and isotopes such as ²H and ¹⁸O. In addition, geophysical method was also attempted to understand the subsurface condition. The spatial variation in arsenic (As) indicates that higher concentration was observed around the landfill sites and irrigated regions, which was supported by geochemical, statistical and isotopic inferences. The variation in the As with depth, lithology and sources has been clearly brought out. Though the values of As does not exceed the drinking water permissible limit (10 mg/l), it has reached a near permissible level of 8.7 ppb. Hence, it is essential to understand the geochemical behaviour of As for a proper future management of the water resource in the study area.