Wind velocity prediction through complex kriging: formalism and computational aspects

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - The formalism of complex random fields is suitable for describing, in a compact and unified way, vectorial data sets in two dimensions, such as wind...     

Ecological differences and coexistence in a guild of microparasites: Bartonella in wild rodents

The study of ecological differences among coexisting microparasites has been largely neglected, but it addresses important and unusual issues because there is no clear distinction in such cases between conventional (resource) and apparent competition. Here patterns in the population dynamics are examined for four species of Bartonella (bacterial parasites) coexisting in two wild rodent hosts, bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) and wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus). Using generalized linear modeling and mixed effects models, we examine, for these four species, seasonal patterns and dependencies on host density (both direct and delayed) and, having accounted for these, any differences in prevalence between the two hosts. Whereas previous studies had failed to uncover species differences, here all four were different. Two, B. doshiae and B. taylorii, were more prevalent in wood mice, and one, B. birtlesii, was more prevalent in bank voles. B. birtlesii, B. grahamii, and B. taylorii peaked in prevalence in the fall, whereas B. doshiae peaked in spring. For B. birtlesii in bank voles, density dependence was direct, but for B. taylorii in wood mice density dependence was delayed. B. birtlesii prevalence in wood mice was related to bank vole density. The implications of these differences for species coexistence are discussed.     

Acid–base regulation in the Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister)

Homeostatic regulation allows organisms to secure basic physiological processes in a varying environment. To counteract fluctuations in ambient carbonate system speciation due to elevated seawater pCO₂ (hypercapnia), many aquatic crustaceans excrete/accumulate acid–base equivalents through their gills; however, not much is known about the role of ammonia in this response. The present study investigated the effects of hypercapnia on acid–base and ammonia regulation in the Dungeness crab, Metacarcinus magister on the whole animal and isolated gill levels. Hemolymph pCO₂ and [HCO₃ ^?] increased in M. magister acclimated to elevated pCO₂ (330 Pa), while pH remained stable. Additionally, hemolymph [Na⁺], [Ca²⁺], and [SO₄ ^2?] were significantly increased. When challenged with varying pH during gill perfusion, the pH of the artificial hemolymph remained relatively unchanged. Overall, ammonia production and excretion, as well as oxygen consumption, were reduced in crabs acclimated to elevated pCO₂, demonstrating that either (amino acid) oxidation is reduced in response to this particular stress, or nitrogenous wastes are excreted in an alternative form.     

Estimating the safety performance of urban intersections in Lisbon,Portugal

According to official statistics, a large percentage of crashes in Portugal are reported on urban roads. For instance, from 2004 to 2007, about 70% of all injury accidents and 43% of the fatalities occurred inside urban agglomerations. This important safety problem has also been observed on the urban network of Lisbon. Understanding this significant problem, the Government of the Portuguese Republic via its research grant agency – The Foundation for Science and Technology – funded a project whose primary objective consists of developing tools that would help estimating the safety performance of various components of the urban highway system in Lisbon. This paper documents one component of the safety tools that were developed and describes the steps that were taken to develop predictive models for estimating the safety performance of signalized and unsignalized intersections of Lisbon. Several crash predictive models were developed using the Poisson-gamma modeling framework. Two types of models were estimated: flow-only and models with covariates. They were estimated using crash and other related data collected at 44 three-legged and 50 four-legged intersections for the years 2004–2007, inclusively. It was found that some highway geometric design characteristics were associated with the crashes occurring at urban three- and four-legged intersections in Lisbon.     

Brazil's National Atlantic Forest Policy: A Challenge for State-level Environmental Planning. The Case of Santa Catarina,Brazil

Formulating effective national forest policy in lesser developed countries is complex and needs to take into account the social as well as the biophysical dimensions which impact on forest resources. Deforestation continues to be a serious concern in many of these countries and most national forest policy seeks to curb the devastationof forest resources. Due to different social groups competing for use of the forest resources, however, designing effective policy is challenging. The needs of these different social groups must be considered.Unless this is done, the forest policy itself can be an impetus for deforestation.In the southern Brazilian state of Santa Catarina, deforestation in the Atlantic forest (Mata Atlantica) is occurring at a rapid rate, threatening the richness of biodiversity. There are a number of causes for deforestation in Santa Catarina, one being Brazil's national Atlantic forest policy. Unintentionally, the structure of this conservation-focusedpolicy has declared all of Santa Catarina's native forests off-limits to any type of exploitation, the only state in Brazil where this has occurred, and has actually precipitated deforestation. Challenges for state-level planning include addressing the national forest policy as well as the state-levelimpacts resulting from the policy. The history of the policy, the social groups affected and challenges for planning are discussed, as are proposed solutions.     

Mercury and organochlorine content of Dipper Cinclus cinclus eggs in south-west Ireland: trends during 1990-1999

A sample of 124 deserted/infertile dipper (Cinclus cinclus) eggs was collected in south-west Ireland during six seasons (1990-1994 and 1999) and analysed for mercury and organochlorines. Mercury was detected in three of the 6 years but no trend was observed. DDT occurred above the limit of detection in only two eggs, one each in 1993 and 1994. In contrast, two derivatives of DDT (DDE and TDE) were found much more commonly. DDE occurred in over 87% of eggs, while TDE contamination was less widespread and reached a maximum of 60% in 1993, with none detected in 1991 or 1999. There was no trend in occurrence of DDE or TDE across years. PCB contamination was present consistently over the 10-year period, with little change in the proportion of contaminated eggs collected over time. In all years, the lowest recorded occurrence of total PCBs was 69% expressed on a formulation basis as Arochlor 1254. PCB congeners 138, 153 and 180 dominated. The congener pattern was similar across years with the exception of 1990 when congener 118 dominated. A distinct trend of high values of contaminants was observed in 1990 and 1993. In 1990, PCB 118 was the dominant contaminant, while in 1993, HEOD, DDE, PCB 138 and PCB 153 were primary contributors to the observed result. Other contaminants (HCB, PCB 101, gamma-HCH, PCB 170 and PCB 180) showed little obvious patterns between years and occurred at relatively low levels. No pattern was observed in contaminants when eggs were grouped according to river or altitude. These data provide a baseline for organochlorine contamination levels in Irish freshwater ecosystems against which future trends can be assessed.     

Responses of song sparrows to song-type matching via interactive playback

The aggressive and singing responses of ten territorial male song sparrows, Melospiza melodia, to sustained song-type matching via interactive playback were examined. This auditory stimulus, which involves both synchronous switching and song-type matching, was hypothesized to be a strong aggressive threat. Responses were compared to five other trial types in which the switching pattern and song-type similarity were independently varied. The six trial types were organized into a factorial design with three switching levels (no switching, synchronized switching, and rapid unsynchronized switching) and two matching levels (shared song-types and unshared song-types). The aggressive response of the birds, a composite index of the correlated behaviors of singing rate, perch change rate, and time spent close to the speaker, showed significant main effects of both the switching and the matching factors, with no interaction effect. The response was highest for the shared/unsynchronized switching trial and lowest for the unshared/no switching trial. Since the synchronous switching trials produced aggressive responses intermediate between the no switching and rapid unsynchronized switching trials, our results corroborate earlier studies showing that switching rate, song-type diversity and song similarity are the key determinants of aggressive approach. However, the switching rate of the focal birds during playback was not correlated with the other response variables and showed a very different pattern from the aggressive response. Switching rate increased during unshared/synchronized trials and decreased during shared/synchronized (i.e., song-type matching) trials. The tendency of the birds to refrain from switching when they were song-type matched by playback led to long bouts of matched-type countersinging. These results suggest that song-type matching locks two countersinging birds into a new level of interaction in which information other than aggressive motivation exchanged.