Agri-environmental schemes: their role in reversing floral decline in the Brue floodplain, Somerset, UK

This paper explores whether the introduction of an agri-environmental scheme has altered the course of long-term trends in plant species abundance in the Somerset Levels and Moors Environmentally Sensitive Area (ESA), UK. A semi-quantitative approach has been taken which integrates disparate but important historical datasets relating to flora and land management with more contemporary digital information. Species datasets from four time periods throughout the 20th century have been collated within a Geographic Information System and analysed with respect to ancillary data relating to elevation, under-drainage and ESA designation. Qualitative reconstruction of the historical ecology of this internationally important area of lowland wet grassland showed that a steady decline in abundance and extent of key components of the flora had already started by 1900. Analysis of historical under-drainage records dating from 1940s to 1980s showed a clear link between the length of time an area had been under-drained and the subsequent diversity of flora recorded in later surveys. In addition, the relative persistence of the rarer components of the wetland flora between surveys in 1980 and 1997 was related to the spatial pattern of under-drainage on the site since 1940. When overall species diversity was compared before and after ESA designation (1980-1997) there was some evidence of an increase in the number of species present and their spatial extent. The historical dataset provided useful contextual information with respect to species trends and allowed the interpretation of contemporary datasets to be placed within a longer timeframe. This pilot study using 18 species gives some evidence that long-established trends in species decline in the Somerset Levels and Moors ESA are starting to be reversed.     

Adjusting irrigation abstraction to minimise the impact on stream flow in the East of Scotland

Abstractions of surface and groundwater for irrigation in Scotland are currently subject to control in only two small catchments. Under the terms of the EU Water Framework Directive, it will be necessary to introduce new legislation to control abstractions elsewhere. To help in the development of appropriate policy for Scotland a study has been carried out to examine the significance of irrigation and the effectiveness of different types of control strategies in terms of the economics of potato cropping and stream hydrology in Scotland. This paper presents the findings of the hydrological study and highlights some of the spatial and temporal issues that need to be considered in the selection of control mechanisms, if they are to be successful in achieving objectives for environmental improvement.The study was focussed on two catchments in the east of Scotland, the Tyne and West Peffer. The effectiveness of several different abstraction control strategies was examined to see how stream flows in the catchment would be modified by their implementation. The results of the study demonstrated that the West Peffer catchment in particular is significantly affected by irrigation abstractions. Control mechanisms based on allowable monthly abstraction volumes and flow-based abstraction bans would be of considerable help in restoring stream flows to their natural levels, but would modify the hydrological regime in slightly different ways. A spatial analysis of stream flows demonstrated that implementation of controls based on a single monitoring point may be ineffective at maintaining acceptable levels of flow throughout the catchment and that this may require a tighter control at the monitoring point.     

Evaluating factors influencing groundwater vulnerability to nitrate pollution: developing the potential of GIS

The 1991 EU Nitrate Directive was designed to reduce water pollution from agriculturally derived nitrates. England and Wales implemented this Directive by controlling agricultural activities within their most vulnerable areas termed Nitrate Vulnerable Zones. These were designated by identifying drinking water catchments (surface and groundwater), at risk from nitrate pollution. However, this method contravened the Nitrate Directive because it only protected drinking water and not all waters. In this paper, a GIS was used to identify all areas of groundwater vulnerable to nitrate pollution. This was achieved by constructing a model containing data on four characteristics: the quality of the water leaving the root zone of a piece of land; soil information; presence of low permeability superficial (drift) material; and aquifer properties. These were combined in a GIS and the various combinations converted into a measure of vulnerability using expert knowledge. Several model variants were produced using different estimates of the quality of the water leaving the root zone and contrasting methods of weighting the input data. When the final models were assessed all produced similar spatial patterns and, when verified by comparison with trend data derived from monitored nitrate concentrations, all the models were statistically significant predictors of groundwater nitrate concentrations. The best predictive model contained a model of nitrate leaching but no land use information, implying that changes in land use will not affect designations based upon this model. The relationship between nitrate levels and borehole intake depths was investigated since there was concern that the observed contrasts in nitrate levels between vulnerability categories might be reflecting differences in borehole intake depths and not actual vulnerability. However, this was not found to be statistically important. Our preferred model provides the basis for developing a new set of groundwater Nitrate Vulnerable Zones that should help England and Wales to comply with the EU Nitrate Directive.     

A non-policing honey bee colony (Apis mellifera capensis)

In the Cape honey bee Apis mellifera capensis, workers lay female eggs without mating by thelytokous parthenogenesis. As a result, workers are as related to worker-laid eggs as they are to queen-laid eggs and therefore worker policing is expected to be lower, or even absent. This was tested by transferring worker- and queen-laid eggs into three queenright A. m. capensis discriminator colonies and monitoring their removal. Our results show that worker policing is variable in A. m. capensis and that in one colony worker-laid eggs were not removed. This is the first report of a non-policing queenright honey bee colony. DNA microsatellite and morphometric analysis suggests that the racial composition of the three discriminator colonies was different. The variation in policing rates could be explained by differences in degrees of hybridisation between A. m. capensis and A. m. scutellata, although a larger survey is needed to confirm this.     

Non-invasive fetal genotyping for maternal alleles with droplet digital PCR: A comparative study of analytical approaches

Objectives

To develop a flexible droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) workflow to perform non-invasive prenatal diagnosis via relative mutation dosage (RMD) for maternal pathogenic variants with a range of inheritance patterns, and to compare the accuracy of multiple analytical approaches.

Methods

Cell free DNA (cfDNA) was tested from 124 archived maternal plasma samples: 88 cases for sickle cell disease and 36 for rare Mendelian conditions. Three analytical methods were compared: sequential probability ratio testing (SPRT), Bayesian and z-score analyses.

Results

The SPRT, Bayesian and z-score analyses performed similarly well with correct prediction rates of 96%, 97% and 98%, respectively. However, there were high rates of inconclusive results for each cohort, particularly for z-score analysis which was 31% overall. Two samples were incorrectly classified by all three analytical methods; a false negative result predicted for a fetus affected with sickle cell disease and a false positive result predicting the presence of an X-linked IDS variant in an unaffected fetus.

Conclusions

ddPCR can be applied to RMD for diverse conditions and inheritance patterns, but all methods carry a small risk of erroneous results. Further evaluation is required both to reduce the rate of inconclusive results and explore discordant results in more detail.     

一种改进的多学习教与学优化算法

针对传统教与学算法在解决复杂多峰函数优化问题时,具有局部最优且搜索开发能力较差的缺点,提出了一种改进的多学习教与学优化算法,新算法为学员的每一维加入不同的教学因子,设计了基于学员均值比较的教师选择策略和向教师及学员学习的多学习策略。基于多个单峰和多峰函数的仿真结果表明,新算法跟传统的、改进的教与学算法相比,在稳定性、寻优精度和收敛速度方面更具优势。