A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

Ökophysiologische Untersuchungen an Pflanzen der Namib-Wüste

The southern Namib desert has a vegetation cover of mainly succulent plants in which species of the Mesembryanthemaceae are predominant. Climatically this area is characterized by hot and dry days, and cool and humid nights with episodic rainfalls only in winter. In this environment a great number of species perform a crassulaceaen acid metabolism (CAM). The responses of these plants to water stress as well as the regulation of CAM in the natural habitat are described and discussed.     

Preen oil as the main source of external contamination with organic pollutants onto feathers of the common magpie (Pica pica)

We investigated the possible sources of contamination with organic pollutants, such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), p,p'-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and metabolites, and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), in and onto tail feathers of a large songbird, the common magpie (Pica pica). Although feathers are potentially useful as a non-destructive biomonitor for organic pollutants, concentrations may be influenced by external contamination onto the feather surface. In a first approach, a group of magpies was captured after the completion of moult. The third tail feather was pulled out and a blood sample was taken. Most PCBs, DDTs and some PBDEs could be quantified in one single tail feather, indicating that the applicability of feathers goes beyond monitoring with predatory birds, as shown previously. Nevertheless, correlations between levels in serum and feathers were found significant in three cases only (i.e. CB 170, CB 180 and CB 187). This finding may be attributed to different factors, such as varying diet, condition, sample size or external contamination. In a second approach, cadavers of magpies were collected throughout Flanders. The preen gland was removed and the first, third and fifth tail feathers were pulled out at both sides. No significant differences were found among tail feathers within an individual. We compared three washing procedures to remove external contamination with organic pollutants from these feathers: deionised water, acetone and a surfactant/acetone solution. Right feathers were washed and left feathers were kept as control. Concentrations in the resulting washes were found highest in the acetone solutions. Furthermore, feathers washed with acetone or with a surfactant/acetone solution had significantly lower mean concentrations than the control feathers. Highest correlations with levels in preen gland were obtained for the control feathers. Consequently, the source of external contamination with organic pollutants onto feathers seems to be endogenous, originating from the preen gland. This is in great contrast to the extensive airborne pollution that has been reported for most heavy metals. In summary, the results of the current study highlight the usefulness of feathers for non-destructive biomonitoring of organic pollutants.     

Calibration of a portable HPGe detector using MCNP code for the determination of 137Cs in soils

In situ gamma spectrometry provides a fast method to determine (137)Cs inventories in soils. To improve the accuracy of the estimates, one can use not only the information on the photopeak count rates but also on the peak to forward-scatter ratios. Before applying this procedure to field measurements, a calibration including several experimental simulations must be carried out in the laboratory. In this paper it is shown that Monte Carlo methods are a valuable tool to minimize the number of experimental measurements needed for the calibration.     

Nonylphenol in the environment: a critical review on occurrence, fate, toxicity and treatment in wastewaters

Nonylphenol is a toxic xenobiotic compound classified as an endocrine disrupter capable of interfering with the hormonal system of numerous organisms. It originates principally from the degradation of nonylphenol ethoxylates which are widely used as industrial surfactants. Nonylphenol ethoxylates reach sewage treatment works in substantial quantities where they biodegrade into several by-products including nonylphenol. Due to its physical-chemical characteristics, such as low solubility and high hydrophobicity, nonylphenol accumulates in environmental compartments that are characterised by high organic content, typically sewage sludge and river sediments, where it persists. The occurrence of nonylphenol in the environment is clearly correlated with anthropogenic activities such as wastewater treatment, landfilling and sewage sludge recycling. Nonylphenol is found often in matrices such as sewage sludge, effluents from sewage treatment works, river water and sediments, soil and groundwater. The impacts of nonylphenol in the environment include feminization of aquatic organisms, decrease in male fertility and the survival of juveniles at concentrations as low as 8.2 mug/l. Due to the harmful effects of the degradation products of nonylphenol ethoxylates in the environment, the use and production of such compounds have been banned in EU countries and strictly monitored in many other countries such as Canada and Japan. Although it has been shown that the concentration of nonylphenol in the environment is decreasing, it is still found at concentrations of 4.1 mug/l in river waters and 1 mg/kg in sediments. Nonylphenol has been referred to in the list of priority substances in the Water Frame Directive and in the 3rd draft Working Document on Sludge of the EU. Consequently there is currently a concern within some industries about the possibility of future regulations that may impose the removal of trace contaminants from contaminated effluents. The significance of upgrading sewage treatment works with advanced treatment technologies for removal of trace contaminants is discussed.     

Search for long-term radiation trends in the environs of Swiss nuclear power plants

Annually since 1989, biannually since 1994 the sites of the Swiss nuclear facilities are surveyed flying the same survey lines by airborne gamma ray spectrometry. The equipment and the data processing software used for those surveys were built and developed at the Institute of Geophysics, ETH Zurich. For mapping the ground radiation around the nuclear facilities, a pixel representation and a modified spectrum dose index (SDI) method are used. In the search for long-term trends, the local dose rates are calculated first and in turn the net dose rates. So far, no change in the radiation levels was detected over the last 13 years outside of the fenced sites of the nuclear facilities and, especially, no artificial radioactivity was present that could not be explained by nuclear weapon tests or by the Chernobyl event.