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91.
Fitting generalised linear models (GLMs) with more than one predictor has become the standard method of analysis in evolutionary
and behavioural research. Often, GLMs are used for exploratory data analysis, where one starts with a complex full model including
interaction terms and then simplifies by removing non-significant terms. While this approach can be useful, it is problematic
if significant effects are interpreted as if they arose from a single a priori hypothesis test. This is because model selection
involves cryptic multiple hypothesis testing, a fact that has only rarely been acknowledged or quantified. We show that the
probability of finding at least one ‘significant’ effect is high, even if all null hypotheses are true (e.g. 40% when starting
with four predictors and their two-way interactions). This probability is close to theoretical expectations when the sample
size (N) is large relative to the number of predictors including interactions (k). In contrast, type I error rates strongly exceed even those expectations when model simplification is applied to models
that are over-fitted before simplification (low N/k ratio). The increase in false-positive results arises primarily from an overestimation of effect sizes among significant
predictors, leading to upward-biased effect sizes that often cannot be reproduced in follow-up studies (‘the winner's curse’).
Despite having their own problems, full model tests and P value adjustments can be used as a guide to how frequently type I errors arise by sampling variation alone. We favour the
presentation of full models, since they best reflect the range of predictors investigated and ensure a balanced representation
also of non-significant results. 相似文献
92.
93.
Andreas P. Modlmeier Tobias Pamminger Susanne Foitzik Inon Scharf 《Die Naturwissenschaften》2012,99(10):811-819
Adjusting to low temperatures is important for animals living in cold environments. We studied the chill–coma recovery time in temperate ant workers (Temnothorax nylanderi) from colonies collected in autumn and spring in Germany. We experimentally acclimated these ant colonies to cold temperatures followed by warm temperatures. As expected, cold-acclimated workers recovered faster from freezing temperatures, but subsequent heat acclimation did not change the short recovery times observed after cold acclimation. Hence, either heat acclimation improves cold tolerance, possibly as a general response to stress, or at least it does not negate enhanced cold tolerance following cold acclimation. Colonies collected in spring showed similar cold tolerance levels to cold-acclimated colonies in the laboratory. Next, we compared the chill–coma recovery time of different worker castes and found that exterior workers recovered faster than interior workers. This difference may be related to their more frequent exposure to cold, higher activity level, or distinct physiology. Interior workers were also heavier and showed a higher gaster-to-head ratio and thorax ratio compared to exterior workers. An obvious difference between exterior and interior workers is activity level, but we found no link between activity and cold tolerance. This suggests that physiology rather than behavioral differences could cause the increased cold tolerance of exterior workers. Our study reveals the importance of acclimation for cold tolerance under natural and standardized conditions and demonstrates differences in cold tolerance and body dimensions in monomorphic behavioral castes of an ant. 相似文献
94.
Katrin Strauss Holger Scharpenberg Robin M. Crewe Felix Glahn Heidi Foth Robin F. A. Moritz 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》2008,62(9):1523-1531
Queen pheromones interfere with worker reproduction in social insects. However, there is still an unresolved question as to
whether this pheromone acts as an “honest” signal for workers, giving a reliable indication of the queen’s reproductive value,
or as a suppressive agent, inhibiting worker reproduction independent of the queen’s reproductive capacity. In honeybees (Apis mellifera), the queen’s mandibular gland secretion, a mix of fatty acids and some aromatic compounds, is crucial for regulating the
reproductive division of labor in the colony inhibiting ovary development in workers. We quantified the mandibular gland secretions
of virgin, drone-laying, and naturally mated queens using gas chromatography to test whether the queens’ mating, ovary activation,
or the reproductive value for workers correlated with the composition of the secretion. Although the absolute amounts of the
“queen substance” 9-oxo-2(E)-decenoic acid (9-ODA) were similar among the three groups, the proportions of 9-ODA decreased
with increasing reproductive quality. Furthermore, the ratios of queen to worker compounds were similar in all three treatment
groups, irrespective of the reproductive capacity. A multivariate analysis including all six compounds could not separate
drone-laying queens from naturally mated ones, both with active ovaries but only the latter ensuring colony survival. We suggest
that the mandibular gland pheromones are unlikely to function as reliable indicators of queen reproductive value and rather
operate as an agent to suppress worker reproduction. This does not exclude the possibility that other “honest” pheromone signals
exist in the honeybee colony, but these would have to arise from other semiochemicals, which could be produced by both the
queen and the brood. 相似文献
95.
Thomas Höpner Karl-Heinz van Bernem Harald Felzmann Holger Struck 《Environmental science and pollution research international》1994,1(1):38-46
In January–February 1991, about 1 million m3 of crude oil were released into the Arabian Gulf as a means of ecological warfare. A stretch of 644 km along the Saudi Arabian coast was heavily polluted over a width between a few meters and more than one kilometer. In four studies performed between March 1991 and April 1993 the state of representative areas of the affected coast was examined with the result that only minor changes were found in those oiled zones which are seldom inundated by the tides. Technical measures up to 1993 did not exceed the test level. A biological regeneration process is in progress which was not recognized as such in analyses of previous coastal oil pollution. Cyanobacterial mats, containing hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria, grow on oiled sediments which are regularly reached by tidal water. Shrinking and fracturing of the stable tar crusts starts a process of loosening and degrading of aged hydrocarbons. 相似文献
96.
Holger Luczak Olaf Oehme 《International journal of occupational safety and ergonomics》2013,19(4):379-382
The real burden of occupational diseases, specifically work-related musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs), and its impact on workers’ productivity is not known. The situation is critical in developing countries where only cases that cause workers’ disability are recorded. In this study, the incidence of MSDs in Colombia was estimated by using the age and gender specific double incidence rate of repetitive strain injuries diseases in Finland for 2002. The results showed that the estimated number of MSDs recorded in Colombia during 2005 was 23,477 cases at the rate of 11.6 cases per 10,000 workers. The estimated total cost of these MSD cases relative to workers’ productivity was US $171.7 million, representing around 0.2% of Colombia’s Gross Domestic Product for 2005. The systematic appraisal of the incidence of MSDs and their associated cost on workers’ productivity are necessary in developing countries to reduce the costly impact on productivity and to increase workers’ well-being. 相似文献
97.
98.
Standardized household waste was mixed with different litter amendments, straw, leaves, hardwood shavings, softwood shavings, paper, and sphagnum peat, resulting in six compost mixtures. In addition non-amended household waste was composted. Composting was done in small rotatable bins and compost samples were taken on a regular basis until day 590. Extraction and analysis of wet compost samples showed no evidence for the presence of chloroorganic compounds. Drying and re-wetting of compost samples, however, revealed that chloromethoxybenzaldehyde (CMBA) was formed in all composts at concentrations varying between 5.6 and 73.4 microg kg(-1) dry matter. CMBA was not present in the original materials. During composting, there was a clear positive relation between formation of CMBA and microbial activity, as indicated by C losses and temperature. Formation took place during the most intensive phase of composting when C losses were highest. Under anaerobic conditions, however, which prevailed initially in the non-amended compost, no CMBA was formed. Calculation of total amounts of CMBA in composts revealed that there was a small decrease during storage in the hardwood, peat, and softwood composts. However, all composts contained CMBA after 590 days. The mean concentration was 33.4 microg kg(-1) dry matter (s.d. = 21.9). Possible biocidal effects of composts when used in cultivation may be explainable by the presence of natural toxic compounds formed during composting. 相似文献
99.
Large-scale contaminated sites with multiple contaminants in the groundwater present a challenge to risk assessment and remediation. Attenuation reactions take place in the subsurface and act to contain contaminants, but must be thoroughly investigated on a site-specific basis. Field data from monitoring wells at a contaminated industrial site in Bitterfeld, Germany, are presented and analyzed for evidence of the prevalent biodegradation reactions. The groundwater in the Tertiary aquifer is contaminated with large quantities of chlorinated aliphatic compounds, in addition to chlorobenzenes and BTEX. In this strictly anaerobic environment, geochemical indications for several microbial processes were found, including methanogenesis, sulfate and iron reduction as well as reductive dechlorination of the chlorinated hydrocarbons. Direct evidence for the latter degradation reaction was observed along the flowpath due to the appearance of intermediates and an increase in the degree of dechlorination. 相似文献
100.
Regional aspects and statistical characterisation of the load with semivolatile organic compounds at remote Austrian forest sites 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Spruce needles and humus layer of 25 remote forest sites spread all over Austria were investigated for their concentrations of PCDD/F, PCB, HCH, HCB, PCP, DDX and PAH. Influences of the sites' location on the detected concentrations have been identified: The north of Austria was characterised by a comparably higher overall pollutant load. In addition, altitudinal aspects were addressed. Between several compounds significant positive correlations have been identified, which were more pronounced for compounds with a stronger causal relationship. Pattern analyses allowed to identify--even for the remote sites--differences between the relative PCDD/F, HCH, DDX and PAH patterns of the sites. Partly, these different patterns were related to significantly higher or lower corresponding absolute concentrations of the sites. 相似文献