Application of a scenario-based modeling system to evaluate the air quality impacts of future growth

The structure and design of future urban development can have significant adverse effects on air pollutant emissions as well as other environmental factors. When considering the future impact of growth on mobile source emissions, we generally model the increase in vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) as a function of population growth. However, diverse and poorly planned urban development (i.e., urban sprawl) can force higher rates of motor vehicle use and in return increase levels of pollutant emissions than alternative land-use scenarios. The objective of this study is to develop and implement an air quality assessment tool that takes into account the influence of alternative growth and development scenarios on air quality.The use of scenario-based techniques in land use planning has been around since the late 1940s and been tested in many different applications to aid in decision-making. In this study, we introduce the development of an advanced interactive scenario-based land use and atmospheric chemistry modeling system coupled with a GIS (Geographical Information System) framework. The modeling system is designed to be modular and includes land use/land cover information, transportation, meteorological, emissions, and photochemical modeling components. The methods and modularity of the developed system allow its application to both broad areas and applications.To investigate the impact of possible land use change and urbanization, we evaluated a set of alternative future patterns of land use developed for a study area in Southwest California. Four land use and two population variants (increases of 500k and 1M) were considered. Overall, a Regional Low-Density Future was seen to have the highest pollutant emissions, largest increase in VKT, and the greatest impact on air quality. On the other hand, a Three-Centers Future appeared to be the most beneficial alternative future land-use scenario in terms of air quality. For all cases, the increase in population was the main factor leading to the change on predicted pollutant levels.     

Seasonal variability of radon-derived fetch regions for Sado Island,Japan, based on 3 years of observations: 2002–2004

Three years of hourly atmospheric radon measurements at Sado Island (Japan) are discussed and compared with corresponding measurements at Gosan (South Korea), and Hok Tsui (China). In conjunction with back trajectory analysis, Sado radon data are used to characterise the seasonal variability in fetch regions of air masses subject to extremes of terrestrial influence. In winter, fetch regions of air masses that have experienced the greatest terrestrial influence covered southern Siberia; in summer, the terrestrial fetch was dominated by Japan; throughout the remaining months the terrestrial fetch encompassed the Korean Peninsula and far eastern China. Summer radon data are then used to estimate the radon flux from central Honshu (23.5 mBq m^?2 s^?1), which varied regionally between 10.6 and 47.9 mBq m^?2 s^?1. The Sado radon record reported here completes a 4-site, multi-year dataset of hourly radon concentrations across East Asia and the central Pacific (spanning 16° of latitude), which constitutes a unique evaluation tool for transport and mixing schemes of atmospheric and chemical transport models.     

A Systems-Based Conceptual Framework for Assessing the Determinants of a Social License to Operate in the Mining Industry

The concept of a “social license to operate” (SLO) was coined in the 1990s and gained popularity as one way in which “social” considerations can be addressed in mineral development decision making. The need for a SLO implies that developers require the widespread approval of local community members for their projects to avoid exposure to potentially costly conflict and business risks. Only a limited amount of scholarship exists on the topic, and there is a need for research that specifically addresses the complex and changeable nature of SLO outcomes. In response to these challenges, this paper advances a novel, systems-based conceptual framework for assessing SLO determinants and outcomes in the mining industry. Two strands of systems theory are specifically highlighted—complex adaptive systems and resilience—and the roles of context, key system variables, emergence, change, uncertainty, feedbacks, cross-scale effects, multiple stable states, thresholds, and resilience are discussed. The framework was developed from the results of a multi-year research project which involved international mining case study investigations, a comprehensive literature review, and interviews conducted with mining stakeholders and observers. The framework can help guide SLO analysis and management efforts, by encouraging users to account for important contextual and complexity-oriented elements present in SLO settings. We apply the framework to a case study in Alaska, USA before discussing its merits and challenges. We also illustrate knowledge gaps associated with applications of complex adaptive systems and resilience theories to the study of SLO dynamics, and discuss opportunities for future research.     

A Method for Spatially Explicit Representation of Sub-watershed Sediment Yield,Southern California,USA

We present here a method to integrate geologic, topographic, and land-cover data in a geographic information system to provide a fine-scale, spatially explicit prediction of sediment yield to support management applications. The method is fundamentally qualitative but can be quantified using preexisting sediment-yield data, where available, to verify predictions using other independent data sets. In the 674-km² Sespe Creek watershed of southern California, 30 unique “geomorphic landscape units” (GLUs, defined by relatively homogenous areas of geology, hillslope gradient, and land cover) provide a framework for discriminating relative rates of sediment yield across this landscape. Field observations define three broad groupings of GLUs that are well-associated with types, relative magnitudes, and rates of erosion processes. These relative rates were then quantified using sediment-removal data from nearby debris basins, which allow relatively low-precision but robust calculations of both local and whole-watershed sediment yields, based on the key assumption that minimal sediment storage throughout most of the watershed supports near-equivalency of long-term rates of hillslope sediment production and watershed sediment yield. The accuracy of these calculations can be independently assessed using geologically inferred uplift rates and integrated suspended sediment measurements from mainstem Sespe Creek, which indicate watershed-averaged erosion rates between about 0.6–1.0 mm year^?1 and corresponding sediment yields of about 2 × 10³ t km^?2 year^?1. A spatially explicit representation of sediment production is particularly useful in a region where wildfires, rapid urban development, and the downstream delivery of upstream sediment loads are critical drivers of both geomorphic processes and land-use management.     

Prenatally diagnosed non-immune hydrops caused by congenital transient leukaemia

Congenital transient leukaemia (CTL) is a haematological disorder characterized by proliferation of myeloblasts within the bone marrow and peripheral blood of affected newborns. Infants with Down syndrome are most frequently affected and although the disorder can result in fetal death due to hydrops, it typically resolves spontaneously after birth. We present a case of prenatally diagnosed fetal hydrops accompanied by splenomegaly and an enlarged, echogenic liver in a fetus identified with CTL after birth.     

A Poisson–Gamma model for analysis of ecological non-negative continuous data

The statistical analysis of continuous data that is non-negative is a common task in quantitative ecology. An example, and our motivation, is the weight of a given fish species in a fish trawl. The analysis task is complicated by the occurrence of exactly zero observations. It makes many statistical methods for continuous data inappropriate. In this paper we propose a model that extends a Tweedie generalised linear model. The proposed model exploits the fact that a Tweedie distribution is equivalent to the distribution obtained by summing a Poisson number of gamma random variables. In the proposed model, both the number of gamma variates, and their average size, are modelled separately. The model has a composite link and has a flexible mean-variance relationship that can vary with covariates. We illustrate the model, and compare it to other models, using data from a fish trawl survey in south-east Australia.     

Male's return rate, rather than territory fidelity and breeding dispersal, explains geographic variation in song sharing in two populations of an oscine passerine (Oreothlypis celata)

Males of some oscine passerines learn and share songs of neighboring males. This process can lead to the formation of song pattern neighborhoods or microhabitat song dialects. The degree to which song sharing occurs between populations and the spatial scale over which neighboring males share songs, however, can vary widely, and interpopulation comparisons have suggested that song sharing is more common in residents than in migrants. Here, we examine two populations of the orange-crowned warbler (Oreothlypis celata) to quantify patterns of song sharing at the northern (long-distance migrant) and southern (short-distance migrant) edges of the breeding distribution and to test if return rate, territory fidelity, and breeding dispersal explain the patterns found in the two populations. The southern population (O. celata sordida breeding on Santa Catalina Island, California; 33°N) had a higher annual return rate to their territories and exhibited higher song sharing in neighborhoods than their counterparts (O. celata celata breeding in Fairbanks, Alaska; 64°N). Year-to-year patterns of territory fidelity and breeding dispersal distances were similar between populations. Our results suggest that if migratory distance generally covaries with the proportion of returning males, this could explain different levels of song sharing between the short- and long-distance migrants.     

Evolutionary algorithm for vehicle driving cycle generation

Modeling transit bus emissions and fuel economy requires a large amount of experimental data over wide ranges of operational conditions. Chassis dynamometer tests are typically performed using representative driving cycles defined based on vehicle instantaneous speed as sequences of "microtrips", which are intervals between consecutive vehicle stops. Overall significant parameters of the driving cycle, such as average speed, stops per mile, kinetic intensity, and others, are used as independent variables in the modeling process. Performing tests at all the necessary combinations of parameters is expensive and time consuming. In this paper, a methodology is proposed for building driving cycles at prescribed independent variable values using experimental data through the concatenation of "microtrips" isolated from a limited number of standard chassis dynamometer test cycles. The selection of the adequate "microtrips" is achieved through a customized evolutionary algorithm. The genetic representation uses microtrip definitions as genes. Specific mutation, crossover, and karyotype alteration operators have been defined. The Roulette-Wheel selection technique with elitist strategy drives the optimization process, which consists of minimizing the errors to desired overall cycle parameters. This utility is part of the Integrated Bus Information System developed at West Virginia University.     

Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part II: Evaluation of air quality predictions and air quality benefits assessment

Following the meteorological evaluation in Part I, this Part II paper presents the statistical evaluation of air quality predictions by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA)’s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) model for the four simulated months in the base year 2005. The surface predictions were evaluated using the Air Pollution Index (API) data published by the China Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) for 31 capital cities and daily fine particulate matter (PM_2.5, particles with aerodiameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) observations of an individual site in Tsinghua University (THU). To overcome the shortage in surface observations, satellite data are used to assess the column predictions including tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) column abundance and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The result shows that CMAQ gives reasonably good predictions for the air quality.The air quality improvement that would result from the targeted sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emission controls in China were assessed for the objective year 2010. The results show that the emission controls can lead to significant air quality benefits. SO₂ concentrations in highly polluted areas of East China in 2010 are estimated to be decreased by 30–60% compared to the levels in the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) case. The annual PM_2.5 can also decline by 3–15 μg m^?3 (4–25%) due to the lower SO₂ and sulfate concentrations. If similar controls are implemented for NO_x emissions, NO_x concentrations are estimated to decrease by 30–60% as compared with the 2010 BAU scenario. The annual mean PM_2.5 concentrations will also decline by 2–14 μg m^?3 (3–12%). In addition, the number of ozone (O₃) non-attainment areas in the northern China is projected to be much lower, with the maximum 1-h average O₃ concentrations in the summer reduced by 8–30 ppb.