A GIS tool to estimate West Nile virus risk based on a degree-day model

West Nile virus (Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) is a serious infectious disease that recently spread across the North America continent. A spatial analysis tool was developed on the ArcMap 9.x platform to estimate potential West Nile virus activity using a spatially explicit degree-day model. The model identifies when the virus Extrinsic Incubation Period (EIP) is completed within the vector longevity during mid-summer months. The EIP is treated as a threshold indicator of the potential for virus emergence and activity. Comparing the number of West Nile virus cases in Wyoming reported from 2003 to 2005 with model results, actual cases and predicted events of West Nile virus activity match relatively well. The model represents a useful method for estimating potential West Nile virus activity in a large spatial scale.     

Arsenic speciation in arsenic-rich Brazilian soils from gold mining sites under anaerobic incubation

BACKGROUND: Arsenic speciation in environmental samples is essential for studying toxicity, mobility and bio-transformation of As in aquatic and terrestrial environments. Although the inorganic species As(III) and As(V) have been considered dominant in soils and sediments, organisms are able to metabolize inorganic forms of arsenic into organo-arsenic compounds. Arsenosugars and methylated As compounds can be found in terrestrial organisms, but they generally occur only as minor constituents. We investigated the dynamics of arsenic species under anaerobic conditions in soils surrounding gold mining areas from Minas Gerais State, Brazil to elucidate the arsenic biogeochemical cycle and water contamination mechanisms. METHODS: Surface soil samples were collected at those sites, namely Paracatu Formation, Banded Iron Formation and Riacho dos Machados Sequence, and incubated in CaCl2 2.5 mmol L(-1) suspensions under anaerobic conditions for 1, 28, 56 and 112 days. After that, suspensions were centrifuged and supernatants analyzed for soluble As species by IC-ICPMS and HPLC-ICPMS. RESULTS: Easily exchangeable As was mainly arsenite, except when reducible manganese was present. Arsenate was mainly responsible for the increase in soluble arsenic due to the reductive dissolution of either iron or manganese in samples from the Paracatu Formation and Riacho dos Machados Sequence. On the other hand, organic species of As dominated in samples from the Banded Iron Formation during anaerobic incubation. DISCUSSION: Results are contrary to the expectation that, in anaerobic environments, As release due to the reductive dissolution of Fe is followed by As(V) reduction to As(III). The occurrence of organo-arsenic species was also found to be significant to the dynamics of soluble arsenic, mainly in soils from the Banded Iron Formation (BIF), under our experimental conditions. CONCLUSIONS: In general, As(V) and organic As were the dominant species in solution, which is surprising under anaerobic conditions in terrestrial environments. The unexpected occurrence of organic species of As was attributed to enrollment of ternary organic complexes or living organisms such as algae or cyanobacteria. PERSPECTIVES: These findings are believed to be useful for remediation strategies in mine-affected regions, as the organic As species are in general considered to be less toxic than inorganic ones and even As(V) is considered less mobile and toxic than As(III).     

A reaction-based paradigm to model reactive chemical transport in groundwater with general kinetic and equilibrium reactions

This paper presents a reaction-based water quality transport model in subsurface flow systems. Transport of chemical species with a variety of chemical and physical processes is mathematically described by M partial differential equations (PDEs). Decomposition via Gauss-Jordan column reduction of the reaction network transforms M species reactive transport equations into two sets of equations: a set of thermodynamic equilibrium equations representing N(E) equilibrium reactions and a set of reactive transport equations of M-N(E) kinetic-variables involving no equilibrium reactions (a kinetic-variable is a linear combination of species). The elimination of equilibrium reactions from reactive transport equations allows robust and efficient numerical integration. The model solves the PDEs of kinetic-variables rather than individual chemical species, which reduces the number of reactive transport equations and simplifies the reaction terms in the equations. A variety of numerical methods are investigated for solving the coupled transport and reaction equations. Simulation comparisons with exact solutions were performed to verify numerical accuracy and assess the effectiveness of various numerical strategies to deal with different application circumstances. Two validation examples involving simulations of uranium transport in soil columns are presented to evaluate the ability of the model to simulate reactive transport with complex reaction networks involving both kinetic and equilibrium reactions.     

The use of lichen growth abnormalities as an early warning indicator of forest dieback

Combinations of pollutants including acidic fog and ozone occur at high levels at a number of sites in eastern North America and Europe. Mountainous regions such as the Laurentians (Quebec), Appalachians (N.Y.) and the Green Mountains (Vermont) are especially vulnerable, with both conifers and hardwoods being affected. Ongoing measurements of atmospheric chemistry (e.g. The Chemistry of High Elevation Fog-CHEF project of the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service) reveal that extreme cloudwater events of less than pH 3.0 and ozone episodes in excess of 100 ppb are common occurrences. The purpose of this study was to gather information about the response of epiphytic lichens to deteriorating air quality at selected locations for which atmospheric chemical data are readily available. A multidisciplinary approach is being used to analyse the lichens.Morphological and cellular aberrations previously documented by the authors to occur in terricolous lichens exposed to simulated acidic rain events will be evaluated for their usefulness are early warning indicators of forest decline. In addition, tissue chemistry of species such as Hypogymnia physodes will be correlated with parameters such as altitude and decline index and compared with published elemental values for lichens from similarly polluted sites in Europe and Scandinavia.     

An Ex Post Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution Control Program in Tokyo

ABSTRACT

The benefits and costs of past nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) control policies were calculated for Tokyo, Japan, using environmental, economic, political, demographic, and medical data from 1973 to 1994. The benefits of NO₂ control were estimated as medical expenses and lost work time due to hypothetical no-control air concentrations of NO₂. Direct costs were calculated as annualized capital expenditures and 1 year's operating costs for regulated industries plus governmental agency expenses. The major findings were as follows:

(1) Using Tokyo's average medical cost of pollution-related illness, the best net estimate of the avoided medical costs due to incidence of phlegm and sputum in adults was 730 billion yen ($6.08 billion; 1 U.S. dollar = 120 yen).

(2) The best net estimate of the avoided medical costs due to incidence of lower respiratory illness in children was 93 billion yen ($775 million).

(3) Using Tokyo's average duration of pollution-related illness and average wages, the best net estimate of the avoided costs of lost wages in workers was 760 billion yen ($6.33 billion).

(4) The best net estimate of the avoided costs of lost wages in mothers caring for their sick children was 100 billion yen ($833 million).

(5) Using Tokyo-specific data, the best net costs were estimated as 280 billion yen ($2.33 billion).

(6) Using human health and productivity benefits, and annualized capital cost and operating cost estimates, the best net benefits-to-costs ratio was 6:1 (upper limit 44:1; lower limit 0.3:1). Benefit calculations were sensitive to assumptions of mobile source emissions and certain health impacts that were not included. Cost calculations were highly dependent on assumptions of flue gas volume and fuel use. For comparative purposes, we identified other studies for air pollution-related illness. Assumptions that formed the basis for most of the inputs in the present study, such as duration of illness, medical treatment costs, per person illness in children, and lost wages for working mothers, were similar to those recommended in the literature. Lost wages in sick workers and per capita illness incidence in adults were higher than numbers reported elsewhere. Further advances in cost-benefit analysis (CBA) procedures to evaluate the economic effectiveness of NO₂ controls in Tokyo are recommended to estimate impacts and values for additional human health benefits, ecosystem health and productivity effects, and nonliving system effects, as well as benefits of ancillary reductions in other pollutants. The present study suggests that Tokyo's past NO₂ control policies in total were economically quite effective.     

ESTIMATION OF WATER TEMPERATURE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES USING THERMO-HYDRODYNAMIC MODELING1

ABSTRACT: A continuous simulation approach is proposed for estimating water temperature exceedance probabilities using thermo-hydrodynamic modeling. The approach uses (1) a deterministic unsteady flow and heat transport model, (2) continuous hydrological and meteorological data for a long historical period, and (3) synthetic records of tributary water temperatures and other model inputs. Representative historical records of streamflow, air temperatures, and other hydrometeorological variables are obtained from nearby gages. Stochastic modeling methods are used to construct synthetic records for other model inputs, including inflow water temperatures. An application of this deterministic-stochastic approach is presented for a complex waterway in northeastern Illinois with heat discharges from several power plants and wastewater treatment plants. Statistical results from the continuous simulations are compared to results obtained from traditional event simulations. The application illustrates the information that engineers and biologists can obtain for (1) evaluating compliance with water temperature standards, and (2) assessing the effect of water temperatures on aquatic habitat.     

Effects of Bridge Shading on Estuarine Marsh Benthic Invertebrate Community Structure and Function

The effect of bridge shading on estuarine marsh food webs was assessed by comparing benthic invertebrate communities beneath seven highway bridges with marshes outside of bridge-affected areas (reference marshes). We used light attenuation and height–width ratio (HW ratio), which takes into account the two main bridge characteristics that determine the degree of shading, to quantify the impact of shading on invertebrate communities. Low bridges, with HW ratio <0.7 and light attenuation greater than 85–90%, had benthic invertebrate densities and diversity that were significantly lower than reference marshes. Density of benthic invertebrates at low bridges was 25–52% (29,685–72,920 organisms/m²) of densities measured in adjacent reference marshes (119,329–173,351 organisms/m²). Likewise, there were fewer taxa under low bridges (5.8/11.35 cm² core) as compared to the reference marshes (9.0/11.35 cm² core). Density of numerically dominant taxa (e.g., oligochaetes and nematodes) as well as surface- and subsurface deposit feeders also were reduced under low bridges. Decreased invertebrate density, diversity, dominant taxa, and alterations of trophic feeding groups beneath low bridges was correlated with diminished above- and below-ground macrophyte biomass that presumably resulted in fewer food resources and available refuges from predators. With a greater knowledge of bridge shading effects, bridge construction and design may be improved to reduce the impacts on estuarine benthic invertebrate communities and overall ecosystem structure and function.     

STREAM HEALTH RANKINGS PREDICTED BY SATELLITE DERIVED LAND COVER METRICS1

ABSTRACT: Land cover and land use change have long been known to influence the chemical, physical, and biological characteristics of streams. This study makes use of land cover maps derived from fine resolution satellite imagery and an extensive stream quality dataset to determine the relationship between small watershed health rankings and land cover composition and configuration. Landscape metrics were derived from digital impervious surface area (ISA), tree cover (percent), and agricultural crop maps within Montgomery County, Maryland. Watershed rankings were developed by state and county collaborators (MD‐DNR and MCDEP) using extensive biological and chemical measurements. In stepwise logistic regression models the factors accounting for the most variation in stream health ranking were the percent ISA, followed by the percent of tree cover. Riparian buffer zone tree cover was also a significant predictor. Of the metrics that considered the spatial configuration of the landscape, a contagion index and the percent of ISA in the flow path from the ISA to the stream were also found to be significant predictors of stream health. Despite limited ability to characterize landscape configuration or narrow riparian buffer zone vegetation with coarser resolution imagery (from Landsat), model results were not significantly different from those based on the use of fine‐resolution ISA information, suggesting that broader area applications of the approach are possible. The results indicate that management practices designed to improve stream water quality should focus on the amount of ISA and tree cover in both the watershed and within the buffer zone.     

Estimating Contributions of Nitrate and Herbicides From Groundwater to Headwater Streams,Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain,United States1

Abstract: Groundwater transport often complicates understanding of surface‐water contamination. We estimated the regional flux of nitrate and selected herbicides from groundwater to nontidal headwater streams of the Atlantic Coastal Plain (New Jersey through North Carolina) based on late‐winter or spring base‐flow samples from 174 streams. Sampled streams were selected randomly, and flux estimates are based on resulting population estimates rather than on empirical models, which have been used previously for similar estimates. Base‐flow flux in the estimated 8,834 headwater streams of the study area are an estimated 21,200 kg/day of nitrate (as N) and 5.83, 0.565, and 20.7 kg/day of alachlor, atrazine, and metolachlor (and selected degradates), respectively. Base‐flow flux of alachlor and metolachlor is <3% of the total base‐flow flux of those compounds plus degradates. Base‐flow flux of nitrate and herbicides as a percentage of applications is typically highest in well‐drained areas and lowest in areas with abundant poor drainage and anoxic conditions. In Coastal Plain watersheds of Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, <2% of applied nitrogen reaches headwater streams as base flow. On the Delmarva Peninsula part of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, however, more than 10% of such applications are transported through groundwater to streams, and base‐flow nitrate flux represents 70% of total nitrogen flux in headwater streams.     

Infiltration of PCE in a system containing spatial wettability variations

A two-dimensional infiltration experiment was conducted to investigate and quantify the effect of spatial wettability variations on DNAPL migration and entrapment in saturated sands. Experimental observations of tetrachloroethylene (PCE) infiltration showed that organic-wet sand lenses acted as very effective capillary barriers, retaining PCE and inhibiting its downward migration. A multiphase numerical simulator was used to model this sand box experiment. The simulator incorporates wettability-modified van Genuchten and Brooks-Corey capillary pressure/saturation relationships as well as Burdine and Mualem relative permeability relationships. PCE mass distributions, estimated by image analysis of digital photographs taken during the infiltration event, were compared to simulation results. Although both relative permeability models were qualitatively able to predict the PCE retention in the organic-wet layers, simulations with the Mualem model failed to capture the observed rate of PCE migration. A traditional multiphase simulator, incorporating water-wet capillary retention relations, failed to predict both PCE pathways and retention behavior. This study illustrates the potential influence of subsurface wettability variations on DNAPL migration and entrapment and supports the use of modified capillary relations in conjunction with the Burdine model in multiphase flow simulators.