Mathematical modelling and environmental decision-making

The primary role of a decision-maker is to make right decisions on the basis of available information and within the allowable time and resources constraints. The two basic types of models used for decision-making, technocratic and incremental, are discussed, and so are the common criteria of the decision-making process in a real world. The intensity and diversity of demands on our limited water resources have increased to such an extent that decision-makers are finding it increasingly difficult to consistently attain the needed flexibility and dexterity. Thus, even though decision-making has become exceedingly complex at present, and will become more so in the future, it is apparent that the average decision-maker has been provided with few, if any, new tools and concepts in the past several decades. One of these very few techniques is systems analysis.Even though modelling can add an important dimension to the decision-making process, surprisingly enough it still lacks credibility with the policy-makers. The several reasons that have given rise to this “credibility gap” are discussed in depth. Ten basic rules are suggested as guidelines for realistic model development. The positive and negative aspects of modelling as used for decision-making are discussed. Appropriate remedies are suggested to improve the image of modelling in the eyes of the decision-makers, which will reduce the proliferation of unvalidated, untested and unuseful models, much of which can be classified somewhere between dilettantism and academic exercises. It is concluded that even though some of our current models in this field are rather crude, and somewhat dependent on the experience and judgement of the analysts, the issue, in the final analysis, is very definitely on the side of having a model, even a crude one, against having no model at all.     

Source resolution and risk apportionment to augment the Bubble Policy: Application to a steel plant “bubble”

Source resolution and risk apportionment of emission source categories for risk reduction purposes can be used to enhance the Bubble Policy of the Clean Air Act. This is performed by incorporating receptor modeling techniques of factor analysis and chemical mass balances to assess noncarcinogenic and carcinogenic inhalation risks to a target population for certain pollutants coming from major emission source categories in a steel plant air shed. Source resolution, using factor analysis, statistically interprets a “source” from ambient data. By subsequently quantifying risks from identified metal emission sources using chemical mass balances and risk apportionment, a total additive risk from main source contributors in the steel plant is estimated. From this methodology, the Bubble Policy can be enhanced by targeting only main risk sources or by “risk-trading” with minor impact sources to reduce the total risk (if deemed significant) without arbitrarily reducing risk for all sources in an industrial source complex’s “bubble.”     

Utilization of Arachis hypogaea hull,an agricultural waste for the production of activated carbons to remove phenol from aqueous solutions

Arachis hypogaea hulls, an agricultural waste, were used to prepare activated carbon by chemical activation with zinc chloride under four different activation atmospheres. The most important parameter in chemical activation was found to be the chemical ratio (activating agent/precursor). Carbonization temperature and time are the other two important variables, which had significant effect on the pore structure of carbon. The maximum Brunquer-Emmett-Teller (BET) surface area and micropore volume of the activated carbon was found to be 418 m²/g and 0.28 cm³/g, respectively. The activated carbon developed shows substantial capability to adsorb phenol from aqueous solutions. The kinetic data were fitted to the models of intraparticle diffusion, pseudo-second-order, and Lagergren, and followed more closely the pseudo-second-order chemisorption model. The isotherm equilibrium data were well fitted by the Langmuir and Freundlich models. Solution pH has significant effect on adsorption and the maximum uptake of phenol was reported at pH 3.5.     

Metabolic fate of mancozeb in tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum)

The metabolic fate of mancozeb in tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) fruits was evaluated. Results indicate rapid dissipation of mancozeb and its metabolic conversion to ethylenethiourea (ETU), the carcinogenic metabolite. Treatment with mancozeb at flowering stage resulted translocation of ETU in newly emerged fruits indicating the systemic nature of ETU. ETU was detected within one hour of final spraying of mancozeb at the doses of 1.5 and 3?kg a.i./ha. The residue level of ETU increased up to 3-day for both the treatments, which then rapidly dissipated to safer metabolite ethyleneurea (EU) and reached the below detectable limit within 25 days. Cooking of fresh tomatoes caused decontamination of mancozeb residues, which was associated with simultaneous increase in ETU residues. The degradation pattern of ETU after application of mancozeb was slower as compared to the spraying of ETU as such on the crop. A pre-harvest interval of 25 days is recommended.     

Multi-metal resistance and plant growth promotion potential of a wastewater bacterium Pseudomonas aeruginosa and its synergistic benefits

Water and soil pollution by toxic heavy metals (HMs) is increasing globally because of increase in population, industrialization and urbanization. It is a burning problem for the public, scientists, academicians and politicians how to tackle the toxic contaminants which jeopardize the environment. One possible solution for pollution abatement is a bioremediation-effective and innovative technology that uses biological systems for treatment of contaminants. Many bacteria synthesize indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) which is a product of l-tryptophan metabolism and belongs to the auxin class of plant growth-promoting hormone. The present study aimed at assessing the resistance pattern of wastewater bacteria against multiple HMs and plant growth promotion activity associated with IAA. A Gram-negative bacterial strain Pseudomonas aeruginosa KUJM was isolated from Kalyani Sewage Treatment Plant. This strain showed the potential to tolerate multiple contaminations such as As(III) (50 mM), As(V) (800 mM), Cd (8 mM), Co (18 mM), Cu (7 mM), Cr (2.5 mM), Ni (3 mM) and Zn (14 mM). The capability of IAA production at different tryptophan concentration (1, 2, 5 and 10 mg mL⁻¹) was determined, and seed germination-enhancing potential was also estimated on lentil (Lens culinaris). Such type of HM-resistant, IAA-producing and seed germination-enhancing P. aeruginosa KUJM offer great promise as inoculants to promote plant growth in the presence of toxic HMs, as well as plant inoculant systems useful for phytoremediation of polluted soils. Hence, P. aeruginosa KUJM finds significant applications in HM-contaminated poor agricultural field as well as in bioremediation of HM-contaminated wastewater system.

     

Magnitude of anthropogenic phosphorus storage in the agricultural production and the waste management systems at the regional and country scales

Based on a systematic review of 17 recent substance flow analyses of phosphorus (P) at the regional and country scales, this study presents an assessment of the magnitude of anthropogenic P storage in the agricultural production and the waste management systems to identify the potential for minimizing unnecessary P storage to reduce the input of P as mineral fertilizer and the loss of P. The assessment indicates that in case of all (6) P flow analyses at the regional scale, the combined mass of annual P storage in the agricultural production and the waste management systems is greater than 50 % of the mass of annual P inflow as mineral fertilizer in the agricultural production system, while this is close to or more than 100 % in case of half of these analyses. At the country scale, in case of the majority (7 out of 11) of analyses, the combined mass of annual P storage in the agricultural production and the waste management systems has been found to be roughly equivalent or greater than 100 % of the mass of annual P inflow as mineral fertilizer in the agricultural production system, while it ranged from 30 to 60 % in the remaining analyses. A simple scenario analysis has revealed that the annual storage of P in this manner over 100 years could result in the accumulation of a massive amount of P in the agricultural production and the waste management systems at both the regional and country scales. This study suggests that sustainable P management initiatives at the regional and country scales should put more emphasis on minimizing unwanted P storage in the agricultural production and the waste management systems.     

Studies on the reproductive biology of spiny eel, Macrognathus aral from upper Assam

The one-stripe spiny eel, Macrognathus aral (Bloch and Schneider), has been gaining importance not only as a food fish but also as an aquarium fish for its body shape and behaviour. The overall M:F ratio recorded 1:0.27, both the males and females were mostly mature in May-August. The peak values of gonado somatic ratio (GSR) attained during May for males (1.3) and August forfemales (12.4) indicating that the fish have only one breeding season during summer. The range of ova diameter was found to vary from 0.3 to 1.4 mm, the absolute fecundity ranged from 250 (21.6 cm/27.4 g) to 5220.1 (27.2 cm/66.3 g) while relative fecundity ranged from 9.1 to 128.9. The 50% maturity is attained in length group of 10.1-14 cm for males and 14.1-18 cm for females. The species is a moderately fecund, isochronal spawner and having a restricted breeding season. The relationship between fecundity and body weight and length has also been discussed.