IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MISSOURI RWER BASIN WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: Water from the Missouri River Basin is used for multiple purposes. The climatic change of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide may produce dramatic water yield changes across the basin. Estimated changes in basin water yield from doubled CO₂ climate were simulated using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and a physically based rainfall‐runoff model. RegCM output from a five‐year, equilibrium climate simulation at twice present CO₂ levels was compared to a similar present‐day climate run to extract monthly changes in meteorologic variables needed by the hydrologic model. These changes, simulated on a 50‐km grid, were matched at a commensurate scale to the 310 subbasin in the rainfall‐runoff model climate change impact analysis. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall‐runoff model was used in this study. The climate changes were applied to the 1965 to 1989 historic period. Overall water yield at the mouth of the Basin decreased by 10 to 20 percent during spring and summer months, but increased during fall and winter. Yields generally decreased in the southern portions of the basin but increased in the northern reaches. Northern subbasin yields increased up to 80 percent: equivalent to 1.3 cm of runoff on an annual basis.     

A critical review of measures to reduce radioactive doses from drinking water and consumption of freshwater foodstuffs.

Following a radioactive fallout event, there are a number of possible intervention measures to reduce radioactive doses to the public via the surface water pathway. We have critically reviewed the options available to decision-makers in the event of radioactive contamination of surface waters. We believe that the most effective and viable measures to reduce radioactivity in drinking water are those which operate at the water treatment and distribution stage. Intervention measures to reduce concentrations of radioactivity in rivers and reservoirs are expected to be much less viable and efficient at reducing doses via the drinking water pathway. Bans on consumption of freshwater fish can be effective, but there are few viable measures to reduce radioactivity in fish prior to the preparation stage. Lake liming and biomanipulation have been found to be ineffective for radiocaesium, although the addition of potassium to lakewaters appears promising in some situations. Lake liming may be effective in reducing radiostrontium in fish, though this has not, to our knowledge, been tested. De-boning fish contaminated by strontium is probably the most effective food preparation measure, but salting and freezing can also reduce radiocaesium concentrations in fish. The provision of accurate information to the public is highlighted as a key element of countermeasure implementation.     

Fluxes of NO3-, NH4+, NO,NO2, and N2O in an Old Danish Beech Forest

The fluxes of the major nitrogen compounds havebeen investigated in many ecosystem studies over the world.However, only in few studies has attention been drawn to theimportance of the fluxes of minor gaseous nitrogen compoundsto complete the nitrogen cycle. In Denmark a detailed study onthe nitrogen cycle in an old beech forest has been implementedin 1997 at Gyrstinge near Sorø, Zealand. The study includesthe fluxes of the gases NO, N₂O and water mediatedtransport of NO₃ ^- and NH₄ ⁺. Measurementsof the fluxes of the gaseous compounds are performed withmicro-meteorological methods (eddy-correlation and gradient)and with chambers. Water mediated fluxes encompass rain,throughfall, stem-flow and leaching from the root zone. Thehydrological model is verified by TDR measurements. The findings show that the total water mediated N input tothe forest floor with throughfall and stemflow was 25.6 kg Nha^-1 yr ^-1, and open field wet deposition withprecipitation was 19.0 kg N ha^-1 yr ^-1. The internalcycling of N in the ecosystem measured as turnover oflitterfall and plant uptake was 100 kg N ha^-1 yr ^-1and 14 kg N ha^-1 yr ^-1, respectively. The fluxes ofthe gaseous N compounds NO and N₂O were of minorimportance for the total N turnover in the forest, NO_xemission being <1 kg N ha^-1 yr ^-1 and N₂Oemission from the soil being 0.5 kg N ha^-1 yr ^-1 withno significant difference between wet and dry soils.Concentrations of NO₃ ^- and NH₄ ⁺ in thesoil solution beneath the rooting zone are very small andconsequently the N leaching is almost negligible. It isconcluded that the nitrogen mass balance of this old beechforest ecosystem mainly is controlled by the input by dry andwet deposition and a large internal N cycle with a fast litterturnover. The nitrogen input tothe forest ecosystem which currently exceeds the critical loadby 5 kg N ha^-1 yr ^-1is mainly accumulated in the soil and no significant nitrateleaching is occurring.     

AN EVALUATION OF THE 1997 EDWARDS AQUIFER IRRIGATION SUSPENSION1

ABSTRACT: In early 1997, the Texas Edwards Aquifer Authority implemented a pilot Irrigation Suspension Program with the objectives of increasing springflow and providing relief to municipalities during drought. Irrigators were paid an average of $234 per acre to suspend water use, a price higher than regional land rental rates. Auction theory and program implementation details suggest that the program implementation partially caused inflated bids. The Irrigation Suspension Program is also compared to two alternative programs: (1) subsidizing more efficient irrigation technology and (2) buying land. The irrigation suspension is found to be more cost‐effective relative to subsidizing improved irrigation efficiency because it can be put in place only when aquifer levels are low. Land purchase is a cheaper alternative if the bid levels remain at the levels observed.     

Slope,aspect and climate: Spatially explicit and implicit models of topographic microclimate in chalk grassland

The slope and aspect of a vegetated surface strongly affects the amount of solar radiation intercepted by that surface. Solar radiation is the dominant component of the surface energy balance and influences ecologically critical factors of microclimate, including near-surface temperatures, evaporative demand and soil moisture content. It also determines the exposure of vegetation to photosynthetically active and ultra-violet wavelengths. Spatial variation in slope and aspect is therefore a key determinant of vegetation pattern, species distribution and ecosystem processes in many environments. Slope and aspect angle may vary considerably over distances of a few metres, and fine-scale species’ distribution patterns frequently follow these topographic patterns. The availability of suitable microclimate at such scales may be critical for the response of species distributions to climatic change at much larger spatial scales. However, quantifying the relevant microclimatic gradients is not straightforward, as the potential variation in solar radiation flux under clear-sky conditions is modified by local and regional variations in cloud cover, and interacts with long-wave radiation exchange, local meteorology and surface characteristics.     

A Bayesian approach to multi-source forest area estimation

In efforts such as land use change monitoring, carbon budgeting, and forecasting ecological conditions and timber supply, there is increasing demand for regional and national data layers depicting forest cover. These data layers must permit small area estimates of forest area and, most importantly, provide associated error estimates. This paper presents a model-based approach for coupling mid-resolution satellite imagery with plot-based forest inventory data to produce estimates of probability of forest and associated error at the pixel-level. The proposed Bayesian hierarchical model provides access to each pixel’s posterior predictive distribution allowing for a highly flexible analysis of pixel and multi-pixel areas of interest. The paper presents a trial using multiple dates of Landsat imagery and USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data. The results describe the spatial dependence structure within the trial site, provide pixel and multi-pixel summaries of probability of forest land use, and explore discretization schemes of the posterior predictive distributions to forest and non-forest classes. Model prediction results of a holdout set analysis suggest the proposed model provides high classification accuracy, 88%, for the trial site.

Sources, distribution, and risk assessment of organochlorine pesticides in Nairobi City, Kenya

The distribution and sources of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in air and surface waters were monitored in Nairobi City using triolein-filled semipermeable membrane devices (SP-MDs).The SPMDs were extracted by dialysis using n-hexane,followed by cleanup by adsorption chromatography on silica gel cartridges.Sample analysis was done by GC-ECD and confirmed by GC–MS.Separation of means was achieved by analysis of variance,followed by pair-wise comparison using the t-test (p≤0.05).The total OCPs r...     

Quantifying the impact of vegetation-based metrics on species persistence when choosing offsets for habitat destruction

Developers are often required by law to offset environmental impacts through targeted conservation actions. Most offset policies specify metrics for calculating offset requirements, usually by assessing vegetation condition. Despite widespread use, there is little evidence to support the effectiveness of vegetation-based metrics for ensuring biodiversity persistence. We compared long-term impacts of biodiversity offsetting based on area only; vegetation condition only; area × habitat suitability; and condition × habitat suitability in development and restoration simulations for the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia. We simulated development and subsequent offsetting through restoration within a virtual landscape, linking simulations to population viability models for 3 species. Habitat gains did not ensure species persistence. No net loss was achieved when performance of offsetting was assessed in terms of amount of habitat restored, but not when outcomes were assessed in terms of persistence. Maintenance of persistence occurred more often when impacts were avoided, giving further support to better enforce the avoidance stage of the mitigation hierarchy. When development affected areas of high habitat quality for species, persistence could not be guaranteed. Therefore, species must be more explicitly accounted for in offsets, rather than just vegetation or habitat alone. Declines due to a failure to account directly for species population dynamics and connectivity overshadowed the benefits delivered by producing large areas of high-quality habitat. Our modeling framework showed that the benefits delivered by offsets are species specific and that simple vegetation-based metrics can give misguided impressions on how well biodiversity offsets achieve no net loss.