On-Scene Injury Severity Prediction (OSISP) Algorithm for Truck Occupants

Objective: The aim of this study is to develop an on-scene injury severity prediction (OSISP) algorithm for truck occupants using only accident characteristics that are feasible to assess at the scene of the accident. The purpose of developing this algorithm is to use it as a basis for a field triage tool used in traffic accidents involving trucks. In addition, the model can be valuable for recognizing important factors for improving triage protocols used in Sweden and possibly in other countries with similar traffic environments and prehospital procedures.

Methods: The scope is adult truck occupants involved in traffic accidents on Swedish public roads registered in the Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition (STRADA) database for calendar years 2003 to 2013. STRADA contains information reported by the police and medical data on injured road users treated at emergency hospitals. Using data from STRADA, 2 OSISP multivariate logistic regression models for deriving the probability of severe injury (defined here as having an Injury Severity Score [ISS] > 15) were implemented for light and heavy trucks; that is, trucks with weight up to 3,500 kg and ??16,500 kg, respectively. A 10-fold cross-validation procedure was used to estimate the performance of the OSISP algorithm in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results: The rate of belt use was low, especially for heavy truck occupants. The OSISP models developed for light and heavy trucks achieved cross-validation AUC of 0.81 and 0.74, respectively. The AUC values obtained when the models were evaluated on all data without cross-validation were 0.87 for both light and heavy trucks. The difference in the AUC values with and without use of cross-validation indicates overfitting of the model, which may be a consequence of relatively small data sets. Belt use stands out as the most valuable predictor in both types of trucks; accident type and age are important predictors for light trucks.

Conclusions: The OSISP models achieve good discriminating capability for light truck occupants and a reasonable performance for heavy truck occupants. The prediction accuracy may be increased by acquiring more data. Belt use was the strongest predictor of severe injury for both light and heavy truck occupants. There is a need for behavior-based safety programs and/or other means to encourage truck occupants to always wear a seat belt.     

Climate change mitigation policy paradigms—national objectives and alignments

The aim of this paper is to assess how policy goals in relation to the promotion of green growth, energy security, pollution control and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions have been aligned in policies that have been implemented in selected countries during the last decades as a basis for discussing how a multi objective policy paradigm can contribute to future climate change mitigation. The paper includes country case studies from Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, South Korea and the United States covering renewable energy options, industry, transportation, the residential sector and cross-sectoral policies. These countries and regions together contribute more than two thirds of global GHG emissions. The paper finds that policies that are nationally driven and that have multiple objectives, including climate-change mitigation, have been widely applied for decades in both developing countries and industrialised countries. Many of these policies have a long history, and adjustments have taken place based on experience and cost effectiveness concerns. Various energy and climate-change policy goals have worked together in these countries, and in practice a mix of policies reflecting specific priorities and contexts have been pursued. In this way, climate-change mitigation has been aligned with other policy objectives and integrated into broader policy packages, though in many cases specific attention has not been given to the achievement of large GHG emission reductions. Based on these experiences with policy implementation, the paper highlights a number of key coordination and design issues that are pertinent to the successful joint implementation of several energy and climate-change policy goals.     

Factors influencing cannibalism in the wolf spider Pardosa agrestis (Araneae, Lycosidae)

Cannibalistic tendencies are well known in spiders and may be a significant factor influencing population size. The wolf spider, Pardosa agrestis, is the dominant non-web-building spider in a wide range of central European agricultural habitats. Preliminary field observations indicated an extended reproductive period, which results in a very wide size distribution of juvenile instars. We hypothesised that if cannibalism is enhanced by differences in size, especially during periods when prey is scarce, these populations might be susceptible to cannibalism in an ecologically significant way. Laboratory studies were conducted on juvenile P. agrestis in arenas. We analysed the following specific aspects of cannibalism: (1) the effect of the weight ratio between the opponents; (2) the effect of weight per se, and (3) the role of hunger level in determining cannibalistic tendencies of spiders. The role of weight and hunger were analysed in separate experiments, in both cases by controlling for the other variable. The results showed that cannibalism was strongly positively correlated with both weight ratio and hunger, but absolute size/age of an individual could not predict the occurrence of a cannibalistic event. These experiments generated the plausible hypothesis that cannibalism might be an important phenomenon in the regulation of real populations, which should be tested specifically in future field experiments. Received: 15 December 1997 / Accepted after revision: 10 October 1998     

Prenatal diagnosis of omphalocele and gastroschisis by ultrasonography

As the use of ultrasonography has become a routine procedure in the care of pregnant women, fetal congenital malformations have been frequently diagnosed prenatally. During a 4-year period abdominal wall defects (AWD) were diagnosed in 14 cases, five were gastroschises and nine were omphaloceles, seven females and seven males. Concomitant malformations were present in one case of gastroschisis and in five cases of omphalocele. Eleven AWD's were diagnosed in the second trimester and six pregnancies were interrupted. Eight children with AWD were born; two boys with omphalocele and one girl and one boy with gastroschisis are still alive. Alpha-fetoprotein was determined in amniotic fluid in 11 cases and also in maternal serum prior to the amniocentesis in eight cases. Chromosomal investigations were performed in 13 cases, 11 on amniotic fluid cells and two on lymphocytes from a blood sample made postnatally. Two abnormal karyotypes, 47,XX + 18 were found.