Multi-decadal drought and amplified moisture variability drove rapid forest community change in a humid region

Climate variability, particularly the frequency of extreme events, is likely to increase in the coming decades, with poorly understood consequences for terrestrial ecosystems. Hydroclimatic variations of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) provide a setting for studying ecological responses to recent climate variability at magnitudes and timescales comparable to expectations of coming centuries. We examined forest response to the MCA in the humid western Great Lakes region of North America, using proxy records of vegetation, fire, and hydroclimate. Multi-decadal moisture variability during the MCA was associated with a widespread, episodic decline in Fagus grandifolia (beech) populations. Spatial patterns of drought and forest changes were coherent, with beech declining only in areas where proxy-climate records indicate that severe MCA droughts occurred. The occurrence of widespread, drought-induced ecological changes in the Great Lakes region indicates that ecosystems in humid regions are vulnerable to rapid changes in drought magnitude and frequency.     

Gradient forests: calculating importance gradients on physical predictors

In ecological analyses of species and community distributions there is interest in the nature of their responses to environmental gradients and in identifying the most important environmental variables, which may be used for predicting patterns of biodiversity. Methods such as random forests already exist to assess predictor importance for individual species and to indicate where along gradients abundance changes. However, there is a need to extend these methods to whole assemblages, to establish where along the range of these gradients the important compositional changes occur, and to identify any important thresholds or change points. We develop such a method, called "gradient forest," which is an extension of the random forest approach. By synthesizing the cross-validated R2 and accuracy importance measures from univariate random forest analyses across multiple species, sampling devices, and surveys, gradient forest obtains a monotonic function of each predictor that represents the compositional turnover along the gradient of the predictor. When applied to a synthetic data set, the method correctly identified the important predictors and delineated where the compositional change points occurred along these gradients. Application of gradient forest to a real data set from part of the Great Barrier Reef identified mud fraction of the sediment as the most important predictor, with highest compositional turnover occurring at mud fraction values around 25%, and provided similar information for other predictors. Such refined information allows for more accurate capturing of biodiversity patterns for the purposes of bioregionalization, delineation of protected areas, or designing of biodiversity surveys.     

Seasonal variation in utilization of biogenic microhabitats by littorinid snails on tropical rocky shores

Mobile species may actively seek refuge from stressful conditions in biogenic habitats on rocky shores. In Hong Kong, the upper intertidal zone is extremely stressful, especially in summer when organisms are emersed for long periods in hot desiccating conditions. As a result, many species migrate downshore between winter and summer to reduce these stressful conditions. The littorinids Echinolittorina malaccana and E. vidua, for example, are found on open rock surfaces high on the shore in winter but the majority migrate downshore in summer to the same tidal height as a common barnacle, Tetraclita japonica. In the laboratory, where environmental conditions could be controlled to approximate those occurring on the shore, we tested whether the downshore migration allowed littorinids to select barnacles as biogenic habitats to reduce stress and if this behaviour varied between seasons. In summer, littorinids demonstrated a strong active preference for the barnacles, which was not observed in the cool winter conditions, when animals were found on open rock surfaces even when barnacles were present. Littorinids, therefore, only actively select biogenic habitats during the summer in Hong Kong when they migrate downshore, suggesting that such habitats may play an important, temporal, role in mitigating environmental stress on tropical shores.     

First-instar monarch larval growth and survival on milkweeds in southern California: effects of latex, leaf hairs and cardenolides

Growth rate and survival of first-instar larvae of Danaus plexippus, a milkweed specialist, depended on milkweed species, and was related to the amount of latex produced from wounds, leaf cardenolide concentrations and the presence of leaf hairs. Larval growth was more rapid and survival was higher on leaves of Asclepias californica with experimentally reduced latex, and this species has characteristically high latex, low- to mid-range cardenolide concentrations, and very hirsute leaves. Similarly, growth was higher on reduced latex leaves of both A. eriocarpa (a high latex/high cardenolide, hirsute species) and A. erosa (glabrous fleshy leaves, high latex/high cardenolides). There were no differences in either survival or growth rate between larvae on reduced latex or control leaves of the low latex/low cardenolide A. fascicularis with soft glabrous leaves and both survival and growth rate were higher on this species than the other species tested. Larval growth rates on leaves with reduced latex were similar among ten milkweed species tested to date but differed from growth rates on intact leaves suggesting that latex and possibly included cardenolides are both important in first-instar monarch larval growth, development and survival. We show for a range of ecologically important milkweeds that experiments on cut plant material (no latex outflow) lead to higher growth rates compared to intact plants. Such laboratory assays based on detached leaves will be misleading if the objective is to determine the impact of treatments such as Bt-maize pollen on monarchs on field plants.     

Eradication via destratification: whole-lake mixing to selectively remove rainbow smelt, a cold-water invasive species

Invasive species can have severe effects on aquatic ecosystems. After invasions occur, eradication should be considered whenever the potential loss of ecosystem services outweighs the cost of the eradication method. Here we evaluate the possibility of destratifying Crystal Lake, Wisconsin, USA, to eradicate the invasive fish rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax). We modeled the effects of three destratification scenarios (non-, low-, and high-mixing) using both physical and biological models. Field observations were used to calibrate the models. Water temperatures estimated from 18 unique DYRESM simulations were used in a bioenergetics model to estimate growth of five age classes of rainbow smelt under normal and destratified conditions. Our simulations indicate that destratification can eliminate optimal rainbow smelt thermal habitat resulting in mortality. Destratified lake temperatures also surpassed several physiological critical temperatures. Bioenergetics simulations predicted a weight loss of 45-55% in yearling and adult rainbow smelt. We found that destratification is potentially effective for eradicating cold-water species in temperate lakes.     

Genetic structure among coastal tailed frog populations at Mount St. Helens is moderated by post-disturbance management

Catastrophic disturbances often provide "natural laboratories" that allow for greater understanding of ecological processes and response of natural populations. The 1980 eruption of the Mount St. Helens volcano in Washington, USA, provided a unique opportunity to test biotic effects of a large-scale stochastic disturbance, as well as the influence of post-disturbance management. Despite severe alteration of nearly 600 km2 of habitat, coastal tailed frogs (Ascaphus truei) were found within a portion of the blast area five years after eruption. We investigated the genetic source of recolonization within the blast area and tested whether post-eruption salvage logging and subsequent tree planting influenced tailed frog movement patterns. Our results support widespread recolonization across the blast area from multiple sources, as all sites are grouped into one genetic cluster. Landscape genetic models suggest that gene flow through the unmanaged portion of the blast area is influenced only by distance between sites and the frost-free period (r2 = 0.74). In contrast, gene flow pathways within the blast area where salvage logging and replanting occurred post-eruption are strongly limited (r2 = 0.83) by the physiologically important variables of heat load and precipitation. These data suggest that the lack of understory and coarse wood (downed and standing dead tree boles) refugia in salvaged areas may leave frogs more susceptible to desiccation and mortality than those frogs moving through the naturally regenerated area. Simulated populations based on the landscape genetic models show an increase in the inbreeding coefficient in the managed area relative to the unmanaged blast area. In sum, we show surprising resilience of an amphibian species to a catastrophic disturbance, and we suggest that, at least for this species, naturally regenerating habitat may better maintain long-term genetic diversity of populations than actively managed habitat.     

Downscaling species occupancy from coarse spatial scales

The measurement and prediction of species' populations at different spatial scales is crucial to spatial ecology as well as conservation biology. An efficient yet challenging goal to achieve such population estimates consists of recording empirical species' presence and absence at a specific regional scale and then trying to predict occupancies at finer scales. So far the majority of the methods have been based on particular species' distributional features deemed to be crucial for downscaling occupancy. However, only a minority of them have dealt explicitly with specific spatial features. Here we employ a wide class of spatial point processes, the shot noise Cox processes (SNCP), to model species occupancies at different spatial scales and show that species' spatial aggregation is crucial for predicting population estimates at fine scales starting from coarser ones. These models are formulated in continuous space and locate points regardless of the arbitrary resolution that one employs to study the spatial pattern. We compare the performances of nine models, calibrated at regional scales and demonstrate that a very simple class of SNCP, the Thomas process, is able to outperform other published models in predicting occupancies down to areas four orders of magnitude smaller than the ones employed for the parameterization. We conclude by explaining the ability of the approach to infer spatially explicit information from spatially implicit measures, the potential of the framework to combine niche and spatial models, and the possibility of reversing the method to allow upscaling.     

Limits to local adaptation: some impacts of temperature on Nucella emarginata differ among populations,while others do not

Predicting future impacts of temperature change require consideration of multiple impacts of temperature on organisms from different populations. We explored the impacts of temperature on feeding, growth, and mortality of emarginated dogwhelks, Nucella emarginata, from three populations (34.459, ?120.473; 34.435, ?119.930; 34.355, ?119.441) that are separated by a total distance of <100 km. Collections and experiments took place September–December 2012. Populations differed both in the number of mussels consumed at 16 and 20 °C and in the difference in feeding at these temperatures. Despite differences in feeding, increases in whelk mortality with temperature did not differ among populations, and in the 16 °C treatment changes in whelk mass did not differ among populations. These results indicate population-specific responses may differ even among geographically close populations. However, some traits may be more adaptable than others and impacts of a given change may be limited by various constraints (e.g., changes in feeding may accompany changes in metabolic needs). Improving our predictions of climate change impacts will require considering these issues, which may be especially important for marine communities where species differ widely in developmental mode, population connectivity, and other traits which may affect responses to changing temperatures.     

How hot for how long? The potential role of heat intensity and duration in moderating the beneficial effects of an ecosystem engineer on rocky shores

Studies of the importance of ecosystem engineers have focused on their benefit to biodiversity through ameliorating environmental stress, without understanding the exact benefits gained by associated organisms. On monsoonal tropical shores, species experience strong seasonality in environmental conditions from almost temperate winters to tropical summers when mass mortalities can occur during daytime emersion. The limpet, Cellana grata, associates with an ecosystem engineer, the barnacle Tetraclita japonica, in summer, but not in winter. To understand the benefits of this association, physiological responses (heart rates and osmotic responses) of the limpet either amongst Tetraclita or on open rock surfaces were investigated under three environmental conditions in a laboratory mesocosm: awash (non-stressed), low (30 °C) and high thermal stress (40 °C) of varying durations (3 or 6 h). In general, at 30 °C, limpets showed similar physiological responses under all conditions for both exposure durations. After 6 h at 40 °C, however, all limpets on open rock surfaces died, whereas those associated with barnacles survived. The surviving limpets experienced similar levels of stress as those exposed to 40 °C on open rock surfaces for half the time (3 h), showing that both the level and duration of stress were important. Limpets, therefore, gain benefits from engineering species when conditions are extreme or stress is prolonged. Under low temperatures or for short durations (e.g. winter), associating with barnacles does not provide physiological benefits. Understanding how, and to what extent, associates benefit from ecosystem engineers highlights how close the margin between survival and mortality can be when conditions are extreme.