Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.     

Correlation of human olfactory responses to airborne concentrations of malodorous volatile organic compounds emitted from swine effluent

Direct multicomponent analysis of malodorous volatile organic compounds (VOCs) present in ambient air samples from 29 swine (Sus scrofa) production facilities was used to develop a 19-component artificial swine odor solution that simulated olfactory properties of swine effluent. Analyses employing either a human panel consisting of 14 subjects or gas chromatography were performed on the air stream from an emission chamber to assess human olfactory responses or odorant concentration, respectively. Analysis of the olfactory responses using Fisher's LSD statistics showed that the subjects were sensitive to changes in air concentration of the VOC standard across dilutions differing by approximately 16%. The effect of chemical synergisms and antagonisms on human olfactory response magnitudes was assessed by altering the individual concentration of nine compounds in artificial swine odor over a twofold concentration range while maintaining the other 18 components at a constant concentration. A synergistic olfactory response was observed when the air concentration of acetic acid was increased relative to the concentration of other VOC odorants in the standard. An antagonistic olfactory response was observed when the air concentration of 4-ethyl phenol was increased relative to the other VOC odorants in the standard. The collective odorant responses for nine major VOCs associated with swine odor were used to develop an olfactory prediction model to estimate human odor response magnitudes to swine manure odorants through measured air concentrations of indicator VOCs. The results of this study show that direct multicomponent analysis of VOCs emitted from swine effluent can be applied toward estimating perceived odor intensity.     

Decision support systems for stored water quality: 2. An example application

The components of an environmental decision support system (EDSS) were outlined in Part 1 of this paper. Here, an example application is given using a range of data from the database in order to assess the utility of one specific model chosen from the modelbase: the one-dimensional thermal stratification model, EDD1. The model is applied to a range of lake types worldwide.     

Autocenosis and democenosis as individual- and population-level ecological categories in terms of symbiogenesis and systems approach

According to the basic concept of the theory dealt with in this study, autocenosis, i.e., a self-regulatory host-symbiont system, rather than an individual, is the individual-level unit. Then, democenosis, which is a system of autocenoses, corresponds to the population level. Therefore, natural selection of autocenoses rather than individuals occurs in a democenosis, and auto- and democenoses, rather than “individuals” and “populations,” are components of food chains and webs. However, the symbiotic approach does not exclude the population paradigm and will be developed in parallel with it.     

Biodegradation of shells of the black pearl oyster,Pinctada margaritifera var. cumingii,by microborers and sponges of French Polynesia

The composition, distribution and infestation sequence of organisms that destroy the commercially valuable shells of the black oyster Pinctada margaritifera var. cumingii Jameson, 1901 were studied. Three ecologically different groups of boring (euendolithic) organisms were identified: (1) phototrophic boring microorganisms (cyanobacteria, Hyella caespitosa, Hyella sp., Mastigocoleus testarum, Plectonema terebrans, and green algae, Phaeophila dendroides, Ostreobium quekettii); (2) heterotrophic boring microorganisms (fungi, Ostracoblabe implexa); (3) filter-feeding boring organisms (sponges, Cliona margaritiferae, C. vastifica). The phototrophic endoliths dominate the external pristmatic region of the shell, whereas the valuable interior nacreous region is attacked mainly by heterotrophs. Boring patterns reflect in part the shape and behaviour of the organisms and in part the structural properties of the shell, and inflict different types of damage. Infestation starts with microbial borers, which prepare the conditions for later invasion by more damaging clionid sponges. The infestation begins always at the apex, the oldest part of the shells, from which the periostracum is often removed by natural attrition or by cleaning procedure. The rate of bioerosion in 1 yr-old hatchery shells is 36 times higher than in natural populations.     

Comparison between the carbon-14 and oxygen consumption method for the determination of the activity of heterotrophic bacterial populations

The activity of the heterotrophic microbial population in the saline Lake Grevelingen (The Netherlands) and the Mediterranean Etang Salses Leucate (France) was determined by measuring the oxygen consumption rate, and the uptake of ¹⁴C-labelled glycollate, pyruvate and an amino acid mixture. The maximum uptake rate of the applied organic compounds in Lake Grevelingen was generally less than 10% of the carbon mineralization rate calculated from the oxygen consumption experiments. Only for pyruvate and glycollate higher values were found of about 30 to 40% with one exceptionally high value for pyruvate of 149%. However, these higher percentages were found in winter, when the activity of the heterotrophic microbial population was very low. In Etang Salses Leucate higher maximum uptake rates of the ¹⁴C-labelled compounds were found, relating this uptake to the oxygen consumption rate. Yet the maximum uptake rate is still always lower than 35% of the carbon mineralization calculated from the oxygen uptake rate. Taking into account that maximum uptake rates were considered, the results demonstrate that the uptake of ¹⁴C-labelled organic compounds represents a serious underestimation of the activity of the bacterial population in situ. The extent of the underestimation depends on the water type. It was concluded that the determination of the heterotrophic activity by measuring oxygen consumption rates offers a better insight into the carbon mineralization process in natural waters than the uptake experiments with ¹⁴C-labelled substrates.Communication no. 228 of the Delta Institute for Hydrobiological Research, Yerseke, The Netherlands     

国内外不同尺度的旱灾风险评价研究进展

作为旱灾风险管理实践的科学基础,旱灾风险评价愈来愈受到社会各界的广泛关注。在阅读大量文献的基础上,从4个不同的区域尺度对国内外旱灾风险评价研究进展作了综述。结果表明:(1)目前所有区域尺度研究中,农业旱灾风险评价研究较多;(2)地区尺度的旱灾风险评价是研究其他尺度的切入点,可为实现空间尺度上推(全球和国家尺度)和下推(县乡农户尺度)旱灾风险评价结果的转换提供依据;(3)随空间尺度从全球和大洲→国家→地区→地方尺度,旱灾风险评价的文献量逐渐增多,内容逐渐深入;(4)旱灾风险对饥荒和粮食安全的影响、农业系统和农作物承灾体的旱灾风险评价是目前研究的热点。在此基础上,指出旱灾发生频率较低但生态环境敏感区的旱灾风险评价需加强;从干旱灾害链的角度以及综合旱灾风险与脆弱性、恢复性、适应性的关系来研究旱灾风险是今后的重点。     

Evaluating the sustainability potential of a white goods refurbishment program

A sustainable national policy on waste electronic and electrical equipment reuse has to ensure an integrated environmental economic and social approach. In this paper, a quantitative model is developed that permits a comparative analysis of re-use and non-re-use scenarios from an environmental and economic perspective. The model demonstrates the importance of considering user consumption profiles and the changing national electricity generation portfolio in determining the best end-of-life strategy, whether it should be reuse or recycling. A case study of Ireland is used to demonstrate the model. From a social perspective, qualitative aspects of reuse, such as the job creation potential and the impact on prosperity for low income families, are also considered. Reuse of white goods, if conducted through social enterprises, will create more employment than an equivalent amount of recycling for those most vulnerable to unemployment. Any environmental and social dividends from re-use can be realized only in the context of an economically sustainable system. This would include such factors as a secure supply of suitable equipment, a competitive cost base and sufficient revenues from sales and other sources in order for the business to survive. In an attempt to examine whether a white goods re-use program could possibly operate in a competitive manner with new appliances, this study has examined examples of comparable businesses operating in the EU as well as interpreting data on consumer demand.