Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a +?1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a >?2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than +?1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the +?1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a +?1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.     

Holocene Dynamics of Vegetation and Ecological Conditions in the Center of the East European Plain

Changes in the vegetation and fire regimes in the central East European Plain during the second half of the Holocene have been reconstructed based on the results of paleobotanical analysis and radiocarbon dating of material from a section of peat deposit in the Mordovia State Nature Reserve. It has been shown that birch–pine forests were widespread in the region between 7000 and 5000 yr BP, with the frequency of fires in that period being high (the fire return interval ranged from 10–20 to 100 years). Beginning from 5000 yr BP and to the early 20th century, broadleaf forests were dominant, with the fire return interval increasing to 300–500 years or longer.     

Carbon Emission from the Surface of Coarse Woody Debris in Korean Pine Forests of Southern Primorye

Carbon dioxide fluxes from the surface of coarse woody debris (CWD) have been measured in Korean pine forests of the southern Sikhote-Alin mountain range. The seasonal dynamics of oxidative conversion of CWD carbon have been evaluated, and average values of the CO₂ emission rate have been determined for CWD fragments of three tree species at different stages of decomposition. The degree of decomposition is an important factor of spatial variation in CO₂ emission rate, and temporal variation in this parameter is adequately described by an exponential function of both CWD temperature and air temperature (R² = 0.65–0.75).     

Impact of urban anthropogenic pollution on seed production,morphological and biochemical characteristics of chamomile,Matricaria chamomila L.

It has been shown that the growth of technogenic dust pollution is accompanied by the accumulation of heavy metals in soil and plant phytomass, compared to the control, and that the morphometric and reproductive characteristics of Matricaria chamomila are most sensitive to the impact of these pollutants. The response of plants is manifested in increased variation in morphological characters, mobilization of compensatory protective biochemical mechanisms, and production of more viable seed progeny.     

Diatoms in bottom sediments as indicators of pollution of urban aquatic ecosystems

Analysis of the concentrations of chemical elements and the composition of diatoms in the surface layer of bottom sediments has been performed in a small reservoir at the mouth of dammed river to evaluate the levels of pollution and the impact of toxicants on diatom communities of the river ecosystem. Data on interrelations between the concentrations of chemical elements and the relationship between inorganic pollution and accumulation of diatoms in bottom sediments as an indicator of development of the diatom assemblage have been obtained using linear correlation analysis and graphical plotting.     

Present and future climate resources for various types of tourism in the Bay of Palma,Spain

The Bay of Palma, in Mallorca, is a leading region for beach holidays in Europe. It is based on a mass tourism model strongly modulated by seasonality and with high environmental costs. Main tourism stakeholders are currently implementing complementary activities to mitigate seasonality, regardless of climate change. But climate is—and will remain—a key resource or even a limitation for many types of tourism. Assessing the present conditions and exploring the future evolution of climate potential for these activities have become a priority in this area. To this end, the climate index for tourism (CIT)—originally designed to rate the climate resource of beach tourism—is adapted to specifically appraise cycling, cultural tourism, football, golf, motor boating, sailing and hiking. Climate resources are derived by using observed and projected daily meteorological data. Projections have been obtained from a suite of Regional Climate Models run under the A1B emissions scenario. To properly derive CITs at such local scale, we apply a statistical adjustment. Present climate potentials ratify the appropriateness of the Bay of Palma for satisfactorily practicing all the examined activities. However, optimal conditions are projected to degrade during the peak visitation period while improving in spring and autumn. That is, climate change could further exacerbate the present imbalance between the seasonal distributions of ideal climate potentials and high attendance levels. With this information at hand, policy makers and regional tourism stakeholders can respond more effectively to the great challenge of local adaptation to climate change.     

Copper and zinc in four freshwater fish species from Lake Pamvotis (Greece)

Lake ecosystems are vulnerable to heavy-metal pollution. Fish samples are considered as one of the most indicative factors, in freshwater systems, for the estimation of trace metals pollution potential. Lake Pamvotis (NW Greece) is a typical Mediterranean ecosystem of great importance in regard to biodiversity and to aesthetic value. The fish species found most commonly in the lake are Cyprinus carpio, Silurus aristotelis, Rutilus ylikiensis, and Carassius gibelio. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the level of contamination of two essential heavy metals (copper and zinc) appearing at high concentrations in lake water in the above four fish species. Metal concentrations were measured by atomic absorption spectroscopy in three different tissues (muscle, liver, gonads) in order to assess the fish contamination. A two-factor analysis of variance, based on the procedure of general linear models, was employed in which fish species (four levels) and fish tissue (three levels) were examined for potential influence on Cu and Zn concentrations. Differences between level means per factor were treated using Tukey's multiple comparisons of means. The study showed that C. carpio and R. ylikiensis presented the highest metal content. Tissues analysis revealed that liver and gonads accumulated the highest levels of Cu and Zn. Metal concentration in the edible part of the examined fish (muscle) were in the safety-permissible levels for human consumption.     

Heavy metals in four fish species from the French coast of the Eastern English Channel and Southern Bight of the North Sea

Shallow coastal waters act as nurseries for various fish species and have been recognized as essential fish habitat. We studied heavy metal concentrations in four fish species (plaice, dab, flounder and cod) as an indicator of large-scale habitat quality. The study took place along the French coasts between the Eastern English Channel and the Southern Bight of the North Sea. All species show different concentrations of measured metals (e.g., Cd, Cu, Mn and Pb) in liver but not in muscle. The highest concentrations are found for the flounder and the lowest for cod which is consistent with their habitat and diet. Although our results do not highlight levels of appreciable pollution within the study area, inter-site differences are mainly observed in the muscle tissues and are generally in agreement with the known environmental data (e.g., anthropogenic pressure). However, in the Bay of Seine, one of the most contaminated estuaries in Europe, metal concentrations are in the same range or even lower than those found in fish collected from areas distant from any anthropogenic pressures. At one site, the comparisons of the Cd, Cu and Pb concentrations between healthy and diseased dabs have been carried out on the muscle and liver tissues. The results of this preliminary study show a relationship between metal concentrations and the pathological status of the fish. The use of fish health as indicator of habitat quality is discussed.     

137Cs contamination in tea and yerba mate in South America

Gamma-ray spectra from more than 50 samples of food products available in stores of Buenos Aires city were measured using a germanium detector. Activity concentrations of 137Cs up to 10 Bq/kg were found in tea and yerba mate manufactured in Apóstoles, Argentina. Further measurements of tea leaves, yerba mate leaves and soils, all coming from a cultivated area in that region, also show the presence of 137Cs contamination. The results suggest that the area was fertilized with a product that originated in a region affected by the fallout from the Chernobyl nuclear plant accident.     

Yield and arsenate uptake of arbuscular mycorrhizal tomato colonized by Glomus mosseae BEG167 in As spiked soil under glasshouse conditions

A glasshouse pot experiment was conducted to study the effect of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) colonization by Glomus mosseae BEG167 on the yield and arsenate uptake of tomato plants in soil experimentally contaminated with five As levels (0, 25, 50, 75 and 150 mg kg(-1)). Mycorrhizal colonization (50-70% of root length) was little affected by As application and declined only in soil amended with 150 mg As kg(-1). Mycorrhizal colonization increased plant biomass at As application rates of 25, 50 and 75 mg kg(-1). Shoot As concentration increased with increasing As addition up to 50 mg kg(-1) but decreased with mycorrhizal colonization at As addition rates of 75 and 150 mg kg(-1). Shoot As uptake increased with mycorrhizal colonization at most As addition levels studied, but tended to decrease with addition of 150 mg As kg(-1). Total P uptake by mycorrhizal plants was elevated at As rates of 25, 50 and 75 mg kg(-1), and more P was allocated to the roots of mycorrhizal plants. Mycorrhizal plants had higher shoot and root P/As ratios at higher As application rates than did non-mycorrhizal controls. The soil of inoculated treatments had higher available As than uninoculated controls, and higher pH values at As addition levels of 25, 50 and 75 mg kg(-1). Mycorrhizal colonization may have increased plant resistance to potential As toxicity at the highest level of As contamination studied. Mycorrhizal tomato plants may have potential for phytoextraction of As from moderately contaminated soils or phytostabilization of more highly polluted sites.