Precaution,uncertainty and causation in environmental decisions

What measures of uncertainty and what causal analysis can improve the management of potentially severe, irreversible or dreaded environmental outcomes? Environmental choices show that policies intended to be precautionary (such as adding MTBE to petrol) can cause unanticipated harm (by mobilizing benzene, a known leukemogen, in the ground water). Many environmental law principles set the boundaries of what should be done but do not provide an operational construct to answer this question. Those principles, ranging from the precautionary principle to protecting human health from a significant risk of material health impairment, do not explain how to make environmental management choices when incomplete, inconsistent and complex scientific evidence characterizes potentially adverse environmental outcomes. Rather, they pass the task to lower jurisdictions such as agencies or authorities. To achieve the goals of the principle, those who draft it must deal with scientific casual conjectures, partial knowledge and variable data. In this paper we specifically deal with the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the European Union's (EU) explanation of consistency and on the examination of scientific developments relevant to variability and uncertain data and causation. Managing hazards under the precautionary principle requires inductive, empirical methods of assessment. However, acting on a scientific conjecture can also be socially unfair, costly, and detrimental when applied to complex environmental choices. We describe a constructive framework rationally to meet the command of the precautionary principle using alternative measures of uncertainty and recent statistical methods of causal analysis. These measures and methods can bridge the gap between conjectured future irreversible or severe harm and scant scientific evidence, thus leading to more confident and resilient social choices. We review two sets of measures and computational systems to deal with uncertainty and link them to causation through inductive empirical methods such as Bayesian Networks. We conclude that primary legislation concerned with large uncertainties and potential severe or dreaded environmental outcomes can produce accurate and efficient choices. To do so, primary legislation should specifically indicate what measures can represent uncertainty and how to deal with uncertain causation thus providing guidance to an agency's rulemaking or to an authority's writing secondary legislation. A corollary conclusion with legal, scientific and probabilistic implications concerns how to update past information when the state of information increases because a failure to update can result in regretting past choices. Elected legislators have the democratic mandate to formulate precautionary principles and are accountable. To preserve that mandate, imbedding formal methods to represent uncertainty in the statutory language of the precautionary principle enhances subsequent judicial review of legislative actions. The framework that we propose also reduces the Balkanized views and interpretations of probabilities, possibilities, likelihood and uncertainty that exists in environmental decision-making.     

Use of geographic information systems for assessing groundwater pollution potential by pesticides in Central Thailand

This study employed geographic information systems (GIS) technology to evaluate the vulnerability of groundwater to pesticide pollution in Thailand. The study area included three provinces, Kanchana Buri, Ratcha Buri, and Suphan Buri, located in west-central Thailand. Factors used for the vulnerability assessment included soil texture, slope, land use, well depth, and rainfall. These vulnerability factors were reclassified to a common scale, and a weighted average was computed to yield a vulnerability score. Vulnerability factors and weights were assigned considering pesticide concentrations in 90 wells throughout the study area. Well depth was the most significant vulnerability factor. Groundwater vulnerability maps were generated for several pesticides. The eastern, agricultural part of the study area has relatively deep wells and fine soils. Shallow wells are present in the mountainous west; however, fewer pesticides are applied in that region. Consequently, much of the study area had a medium groundwater vulnerability rating, although there were pockets of high vulnerability, for example, in agricultural areas with shallow wells. The groundwater vulnerability maps are effective for identifying locations warranting more detailed groundwater pollution and vulnerability investigations.     

Trace element levels in foetus-mother pairs of short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) stranded along the French coasts

Tissues of foetus-mother pairs of common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) stranded along the French coasts (Bay of Biscay and English Channel) were analysed for their Cd, Cu, Hg, Se and Zn contents. In the kidneys, foetal Cd levels were extremely low, and strong relationships between Cu and Zn suggested the involvement of metallothioneins since early foetal life. The results also indicated a limited maternal transfer of Hg during pregnancy since levels in the tissues of foetuses were below 1 microg g(-1) w.wt. However, hepatic Hg levels in foetuses increased with body length, and were also proportionate to maternal hepatic, renal and muscular Hg levels. Lastly, affinities between Hg and Se in tissues would participate in Hg neutralisation in both mothers--through tiemannite granules--and fetuses--through reduced glutathione--counteracting the toxic effects linked to the particularly high quantities of methyl-Hg to which marine mammals are naturally exposed.     

No Sustainability without Technical, Fiscal and Social Innovation

Officially, the environmental protection from industrial insults began with Rachel Carson＇s book ＂The Silent Spring＂ in 1963. Protection priorities have since changed. They can be grouped into three successive phases.     

Analysis of the Energy Embodied in Foreign Goods Trade of China

In recent years, scientists have been increasingly interested in the energy embodied in traded goods among countries. In this article, the direct energy intensities in various economic sectors of China were calculated with the data of energy consumption and output value of each sector, and the input-output table was used to estimate the external energy consumption. The total energy intensity of all sectors was then obtained. From the data of international trade, the energy embodied in goods trade of China was estimated for the period of 1994-2001. During this period, the average energy intensity of imported goods was always higher than that of exported ones. As a country with a surplus in international goods trade, China actually imported net embodied energy in the past few years. The net embodied energy imported was at the same magnitude of the imported energy in the form of fossil fuels.     

Concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in matched samples of human milk,dust and indoor air

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are lipophilic, persistent pollutants found worldwide in environmental and human samples. Exposure pathways for PBDEs remain unclear but may include food, air and dust. The aim of this study was to conduct an integrated assessment of PBDE exposure and human body burden using 10 matched samples of human milk, indoor air and dust collected in 2007–2008 in Brisbane, Australia. In addition, temporal analysis was investigated comparing the results of the current study with PBDE concentrations in human milk collected in 2002–2003 from the same region.PBDEs were detected in all matrices and the median concentrations of BDEs -47 and -209 in human milk, air and dust were: 4.2 and 0.3 ng/g lipid; 25 and 7.8 pg/m³; and 56 and 291 ng/g dust, respectively. Significant correlations were observed between the concentrations of BDE-99 in air and human milk (r = 0.661, p = 0.038) and BDE-153 in dust and BDE-183 in human milk (r = 0.697, p = 0.025). These correlations do not suggest causal relationships — there is no hypothesis that can be offered to explain why BDE-153 in dust and BDE-183 in milk are correlated. The fact that so few correlations were found in the data could be a function of the small sample size, or because additional factors, such as sources of exposure not considered or measured in the study, might be important in explaining exposure to PBDEs. There was a slight decrease in PBDE concentrations from 2002–2003 to 2007–2008 but this may be due to sampling and analytical differences. Overall, average PBDE concentrations from these individual samples were similar to results from pooled human milk collected in Brisbane in 2002–2003 indicating that pooling may be an efficient, cost-effective strategy of assessing PBDE concentrations on a population basis.The results of this study were used to estimate an infant's daily PBDE intake via inhalation, dust ingestion and human milk consumption. Differences in PBDE intake of individual congeners from the different matrices were observed. Specifically, as the level of bromination increased, the contribution of PBDE intake decreased via human milk and increased via dust. As the impacts of the ban of the lower brominated (penta- and octa-BDE) products become evident, an increased use of the higher brominated deca-BDE product may result in dust making a greater contribution to infant exposure than it does currently.To better understand human body burden, further research is required into the sources and exposure pathways of PBDEs and metabolic differences influencing an individual's response to exposure. In addition, temporal trend analysis is necessary with continued monitoring of PBDEs in the human population as well as in the suggested exposure matrices of food, dust and air.     

Biomagnification of naturally-produced methoxylated polybrominated diphenyl ethers (MeO-PBDEs) in harbour seals and harbour porpoises from the Southern North Sea

Harbour seals and harbour porpoises are top predator species from the North Sea, have long life spans and hence, are known to accumulate high levels of anthropogenic contaminants. To gain knowledge about the behaviour of naturally-produced compounds in these marine mammals, the biomagnification of naturally-produced methoxylated polybrominated diphenyl ethers (MeO-PBDEs) was assessed. The biomagnification of MeO-PBDEs (2′-MeO-BDE 68 and 6-MeO-BDE 47) was lower in harbour seals (all biomagnification factors (BMFs) < 1) compared to the same age–gender groups of the harbour porpoises (all BMFs > 1). This may indicate a better metabolic breakdown of MeO-PBDEs in harbour seals, as was previously suggested for polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). In both predators, 6-MeO-BDE 47 had the highest concentrations (range: 45–483 ng/g lw and 2–38 ng/g lw for harbour porpoises and seals, respectively) compared to 2′-MeO-BDE 68 (range: 2–28 ng/g lw and 1–6 ng/g lw for harbour porpoises and seals, respectively). In general, the highest concentrations were found in juveniles, suggesting an increased biotransformation capacity with age or the influence of dilution by growth for both species. Here we show that naturally-produced brominated organic compounds can biomagnify and accumulate in North Sea top predators, although to a lesser extent than anthropogenic lipophilic contaminants, such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) or PBDEs.     

永定河河道修复生态功能区划研究

河道生态功能区划是依据区域生态系统现状、生态环境敏感性、生态服务功能重要性等特征的空间分异性而进行的空间分区,是进行河流生态修复的科学依据.本文利用GIS和RS技术,在区域生态环境调查的基础上,分析了永定河北京段生态问题、生态功能重要性等,揭示了区域生态系统的分异规律.综合自然因素与人类活动对区域生态系统叠加影响,最终形成了永定河北京段生态功能区划方案,划分为自然段、近自然段、城市景观段、人工绿化段、自然绿化段等5个区域,并结合永定河多元化用途、相关发展规划和社会经济发展状况等因素,提出各区域的生态修复调控指标,为永定河北京段生态修复提供了科学指导.     

适应气候变化技术体系的集成创新机制

适应是应对气候变化的主要方式之一,适应技术体系的集成创新是适应气候变化行动的关键内容。在不同层面建立适应气候变化技术的集成创新机制,构建不同部门或区域适应气候变化技术的集成创新体系是我国实现有效应对气候变化的必要途径。本文解析了"适应气候变化技术体系的集成创新"的内涵,即不同适应主体和部门对各种适应技术进行选择、优化、配置,相互之间以最合理的结构形式结合在一起,形成一个由适宜要素组成的、优势互补的、匹配的有机体系,从而使适应技术体系的整体功能发生质变的一种自主创新过程。集成创新可以使适应气候变化不同主体或部门的资源、技术、能力等实现重新组合并且优化,进而增强适应气候变化的效果。提出了我国适应气候变化技术体系集成创新机制,包括:适应气候变化技术的整合集成机制、适应气候变化技术的科技创新机制、适应气候变化主体的组织机制、适应气候变化部门的协同合作机制,以及适应气候变化的资金机制。整合是适应气候变化技术实现集成的重要手段,科技创新是适应技术创新研发的主体力量,组织机制是实现集成创新的体制基础,协同是实现适应技术集成创新的关键保障,资金机制是集成创新的物质基础。最后指出应对气候变化的适应技术体系需要充分发挥集成创新的力量,从不同层面的适应主体的组织机制开始,充分整合适应气候变化技术体系,发挥不同适应部门的协同机制,建立完善的国家适应气候变化科技创新机制,同时合理利用资金机制,从而建立完善的适应气候变化技术的集成创新机制。