Modelling and assessment of South African elephant Loxodonta africana population persistence

The use of a quantitative population growth model to investigate the persistence of South African elephant populations is explored. The model provides quantitative assessments of population persistence and confidence intervals for estimated parameters based purely on population size estimates. The analysis supports the view that most of the larger populations in the region are secure. This view is further supported by a lack of density dependent effects in most of the recovering populations and the high population rates of increase observed. This predominantly positive prognosis is in contrast with that emerging from most of the rest of the African continent where the populations are under greater threat because of habitat restriction and direct human conflict. This preliminary assessment of elephant population persistence suggests that “viable” populations may lie between 400 and 6000 individuals. Although not inconsistent with information-greedy genetic and demographic models, the relationship between population growth versus genetic and demographic models should be further investigated. The implementation of a metapopulation management strategy towards these smaller populations is advocated. In addition, as all of the populations included in this analysis have been afforded some degree of protection since the 1920s, continued protection would be a prerequisite for their continued survival.     

The first commercial supercritical water oxidation sludge processing plant

Final disposal of sludge continues to be one of the more pressing problems for the wastewater treatment industry. Present regulations for municipal sludge have favored beneficial use, primarily in land application. However, several agencies and entities have warned of potential health risks associated with these methods. Hydrothermal oxidation provides an alternative method that addresses the health concerns associated with sludge disposal by completely converting all organic matter in the sludge to carbon dioxide, water, and other innocuous materials. A hydrothermal oxidation system using HydroProcessing, L.L.C.'s HydroSolids process has been installed at Harlingen, Texas to process up to 9.8 dry tons per day of sludge. Based on a literature review, this system is the largest hydrothermal oxidation system in the world, and the only one built specifically to process a sludge. Start up of Unit 1 of two units of the HTO system began in April 2001. Early results have indicated COD conversion rates in excess of 99.9%. Harlingen Waterworks System estimates that the HydroSolids system will cost less than other alternatives such as autothermal thermophilic aerobic digestion and more traditional forms of digestion that still require dewatering and final disposal. The Waterworks intends to generate income from the sale of energy in the form of hot water and the use of carbon dioxide from the HydroSolids process for neutralization of high pH industrial effluent. The Waterworks also expects to generate income from the treatment of septage and grease trap wastes.     

Spatiotemporal variability of wet atmospheric nitrogen deposition to the Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina

Excessive nitrogen (N) loading to N-sensitive waters such as the Neuse River estuary (North Carolina) has been shown to promote changes in microbial and algal community composition and function (harmful algal blooms), hypoxia and anoxia, and fish kills. Previous studies have estimated that wet atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (WAD-N), as deposition of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN: NO3-, NH3/NH4+) and dissolved organic nitrogen, may contribute at least 15% of the total externally supplied or "new" N flux to the coastal waters of North Carolina. In a 3-yr study from June 1996 to June 1999, we calculated the weekly wet deposition of inorganic and organic N at eleven sites on a northwest-southeast transect in the watershed. The annual mean total (wet DIN + wet organics) WAD-N flux for the Neuse River watershed was calculated to be 956 mg N/m2/yr (15026 Mg N/yr). Seasonally, the spring (March-May) and summer (June-August) months contain the highest total weekly N deposition; this pattern appears to be driven by N concentration in precipitation. There is also spatial variability in WAD-N deposition; in general, the upper portion of the watershed receives the lowest annual deposition and the middle portion of the watershed receives the highest deposition. Based on a range of watershed N retention and in-stream riverine processing values, we estimate that this flux contributes approximately 24% of the total "new" N flux to the estuary.     

Respiration and lipid content of the Arctic copepod<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Calanus hyperboreus</Emphasis> overwintering 1 m above the seafloor at 2,300 m water depth in the Fram Strait

In August 2000 high concentrations of the dominant herbivorous copepod Calanus hyperboreus were detected in the Arctic Fram Strait, west of Spitsbergen, 1 m above the seafloor at 2,290 m water depth. Individuals from that layer were sampled by a hyper-benthic net attached to the frame of an epi-benthic sledge. For comparison, the vertical distribution of C. hyperboreus in the water column was studied simultaneously by a multiple opening/closing net haul from 2,250 m depth to the surface. Maximum abundance was found close to the surface with 6.6 and 10.0 ind. m^?3 at 0–50 m and 50–100 m depth, respectively. However, the major fraction of the population (>40%) occurred between 1,000 and 1,500 m depth. In the deepest layer (2,000–2,250 m) abundance measured 2.2 ind. m^?3 and was twice as high as between 100 and 1,000 m depth. In comparison to individuals from surface waters, copepods from the hyper-benthic layer were torpid and did not react to mechanical stimuli. Stage CV copepodids and females from the deep sample contained 4–10% less lipid and showed significantly reduced respiration rates of 0.24 and 0.26 ml O₂ h^?1 g^?1 dry mass (DM) as compared to surface samples (0.49 and 0.43 ml O₂ h^?1 g^?1 DM). All these observations indicate that the hyper-benthic part of the population had already started a dormant overwintering phase at great depth. Based on the lipid deposits and energy demands, the potential maximum duration of the non-feeding dormant phase was estimated at 76–110 days for females and at 98–137 days for CV copepodids, depending on what indispensable minimum lipid content was assumed. In any case, the estimated times could not meet the necessary requirements for a starvation period of >6 months until the next phytoplankton bloom in the following spring. The ecological implications of these results are discussed with respect to the life cycle and eco-physiological adaptations of C. hyperboreus to its high-Arctic habitat.     

Global sensitivity analysis of a process-based model for ammonia emissions from manure storage and treatment structures

The development of process-based models to estimate ammonia emissions from animal feeding operations (AFOSs) is sought to replace costly and time-consuming direct measurements. Critical to process-based model development is conducting sensitivity analysis to determine the input parameters and their interactions that contribute most to the variance of the model output. Global and relative sensitivity analyses were applied to a process-based model for predicting ammonia emissions from the surface of anaerobic lagoons for treating and storing manure. The objectives were to compare global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to relative (local) sensitivity analysis (RSA) on a process-based model for ammonia emissions. Based on the first-order coefficient, both GSA and RSA showed the model input parameters in order of importance in process model for ammonia emissions from lagoon surfaces were: (i) pH, (ii) lagoon liquid temperature, (iii) wind speed above the lagoon surface, and (iv) the concentration of ammoniacal nitrogen in the lagoon. The GSA revealed that interactions between model parameters accounted for over two-thirds of the model variance, a result that cannot be achieved using traditional RSA. Also, the GSA showed that parameter interactions involving liquid pH had more impact on the model output variance than the single parameters: (i) temperature, (ii) wind speed, or (iii) total ammoniacal nitrogen. This study demonstrates that GSA provides a more complete analysis of model input parameters and their interactions on the model output compared to RSA. A comprehensive tutorial regarding the application of GSA to a process model is presented.     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Antipredator activity and endogenous biosynthesis of defensive secretion in larval and pupal Delphastus catalinae (Horn) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)

Delphastus catalinae (Horn) is a predatory ladybird beetle (Coccinellidae) commonly used as a biocontrol agent against greenhouse infestation by whiteflies. It belongs to the basal subfamily Microweisinae, a group for which chemical defenses have not been previously investigated. The larval and pupal stages of D. catalinae possess minute secretory hairs that produce droplets containing compounds of both isoprenoid and polyketide origin. Bioassays with the predatory ant Crematogaster lineolata showed both the larval and pupal secretions to be deterrent. Moreover, isolated secretion components, from both classes of compounds, displayed antipredator activity against the ant. Experiments with D. catalinae larvae fed isotopically labeled glucose showed ¹³C-incorporation into both categories of compounds within the pupal secretion, demonstrating that these antipredator compounds, which differ from the typical nitrogenous defensive molecules of coccinellids, are biosynthesized endogenously. This suggests that the wide use of alkaloids by more derived coccinellids may have arisen after their divergence from the more basal Microweisinae.     

Systematic Temporal Patterns in the Relationship Between Housing Development and Forest Bird Biodiversity

As people encroach increasingly on natural areas, one question is how this affects avian biodiversity. The answer to this is partly scale‐dependent. At broad scales, human populations and biodiversity concentrate in the same areas and are positively associated, but at local scales people and biodiversity are negatively associated with biodiversity. We investigated whether there is also a systematic temporal trend in the relationship between bird biodiversity and housing development. We used linear regression to examine associations between forest bird species richness and housing growth in the conterminous United States over 30 years. Our data sources were the North American Breeding Bird Survey and the 2000 decennial U.S. Census. In the 9 largest forested ecoregions, housing density increased continually over time. Across the conterminous United States, the association between bird species richness and housing density was positive for virtually all guilds except ground nesting birds. We found a systematic trajectory of declining bird species richness as housing increased through time. In more recently developed ecoregions, where housing density was still low, the association with bird species richness was neutral or positive. In ecoregions that were developed earlier and where housing density was highest, the association of housing density with bird species richness for most guilds was negative and grew stronger with advancing decades. We propose that in general the relationship between human settlement and biodiversity over time unfolds as a 2‐phase process. The first phase is apparently innocuous; associations are positive due to coincidence of low‐density housing with high biodiversity. The second phase is highly detrimental to biodiversity, and increases in housing density are associated with biodiversity losses. The long‐term effect on biodiversity depends on the final housing density. This general pattern can help unify our understanding of the relationship of human encroachment and biodiversity response. Patrones Sistemáticos Temporales en la Relación entre Desarrollos Urbanos y la Biodiversidad de Aves de Bosque