Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making.     

Comparison of statistical and theoretical habitat models for conservation planning: the benefit of ensemble prediction

Selection of a modeling approach is an important step in the conservation planning process, but little guidance is available. We compared two statistical and three theoretical habitat modeling approaches representing those currently being used for avian conservation planning at landscape and regional scales: hierarchical spatial count (HSC), classification and regression tree (CRT), habitat suitability index (HSI), forest structure database (FS), and habitat association database (HA). We focused our comparison on models for five priority forest-breeding species in the Central Hardwoods Bird Conservation Region: Acadian Flycatcher, Cerulean Warbler, Prairie Warbler, Red-headed Woodpecker, and Worm-eating Warbler. Lacking complete knowledge on the distribution and abundance of each species with which we could illuminate differences between approaches and provide strong grounds for recommending one approach over another, we used two approaches to compare models: rank correlations among model outputs and comparison of spatial correspondence. In general, rank correlations were significantly positive among models for each species, indicating general agreement among the models. Worm-eating Warblers had the highest pairwise correlations, all of which were significant (P < 0.05). Red-headed Woodpeckers had the lowest agreement among models, suggesting greater uncertainty in the relative conservation value of areas within the region. We assessed model uncertainty by mapping the spatial congruence in priorities (i.e., top ranks) resulting from each model for each species and calculating the coefficient of variation across model ranks for each location. This allowed identification of areas more likely to be good targets of conservation effort for a species, those areas that were least likely, and those in between where uncertainty is higher and thus conservation action incorporates more risk. Based on our results, models developed independently for the same purpose (conservation planning for a particular species in a particular geography) yield different answers and thus different conservation strategies. We assert that using only one habitat model (even if validated) as the foundation of a conservation plan is risky. Using multiple models (i.e., ensemble prediction) can reduce uncertainty and increase efficacy of conservation action when models corroborate one another and increase understanding of the system when they do not.     

Use of pine needles as an indicator of atmospheric contamination by pentachlorophenol

The use of pine needles as an inexpensive and natural device for collecting atmospheric organic contaminants was investigated. The widespread existence of pentachlorophenol in the atmosphere was investigated by analyzing pine needle extracts by GC-MS. PCP was found at low ppb levels in all pine needle samples which were analyzed.     

Song of the humpback whale — Population comparisons

Summary Humpback whale songs recorded on tropical calving grounds exhibit different dialects depending on the oceanic basin. Songs sampled simultaneously from two populations in the North Pacific (Hawaii and Mexico) were essentially identical. These North Pacific songs were clearly different from the song type shared by two populations in the North Atlantic (Cape Verde Islands and West Indies). Songs from the Southern Hemisphere (Tonga) represent a third distinct dialect. Our evidence shows that, despite annual change in song organization, significant differences in humpback song occur between isolated ocean basins, while only subtle differences exist within an oceanic population (Hawaii and Pacific Mexico).     

The road map for green development of Western China

China has made some remarkable achievements in sustainable development,but the constant deterioration of the overall trend of the environment has not yet been effectively curbed.To achieve the goal of sustainable development,we must first ensure coordination and coherence of national development goals in different areas and adhere to green development road.To achieve the objectives related to green development,and to clarify the direction of green development in the next 20years,a road map is needed to guide and coordinate the process.This paper describes the concept of the green development road map,introduces a green development road map for the western region,and further elaborates it The road map clarifies the objectives and guiding principles of green development in the western region,points the areas that deserve more concern and institutional innovation,and builds a green development monitoring and evaluation(M&E)framework.Finally,the paper provides corresponding policy recommendations based on the established road map.     

Achievements,challenges and global implications of China’s carbon neutral pledge

China has been committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. China’s pledge of carbon neutrality will play an essential role in galvanising global climate action, which has been largely deferred by the Covid-19 pandemic. China’s carbon neutrality could reduce global warming by approximately 0.2–0.3 °C and save around 1.8 million people from premature death due to air pollution. Along with domestic benefits, China’s pledge of carbon neutrality is a “game-changer” for global climate action and can inspire other large carbon emitters to contribute actively to mitigate carbon emissions, particularly countries along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) routes. In order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, it is necessary to decarbonise all sectors in China, including energy, industry, transportation, construction, and agriculture. However, this transition will be very challenging, because major technological breakthroughs and large-scale investments are required. Strong policies and implementation plans are essential, including sustainable demand, decarbonizing electricity, electrification, fuel switching, and negative emissions. In particular, if China can peak carbon emissions earlier, it can lower the costs of the carbon neutral transition and make it easier to do so over a longer time horizon. China’s pledge of carbon neutrality by 2060 and recent pledges at the 26^th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) are significant contributions and critical steps for global climate action. However, countries worldwide need to achieve carbon neutrality to keep the global temperature from growing beyond the level that will cause catastrophic damages globally.     

Primary production and phytoplankton community structure during a winter shelf-scale phytoplankton bloom off Western Australia

Regions of high primary production along the oligotrophic west coast of Australia between 34 and 22°S in May–June 2007 (midway through the annual phytoplankton bloom) were found around mesoscale features of the Leeuwin Current. At 31°S, an anticyclonic eddy-forming meander of the Leeuwin Current had a mixed layer depth of >160 m, a depth-integrated chlorophyll a (Chl a)-normalised primary production of 24 mg C mg Chl a ^?1 day^?1 compared to the surrounding values of <18 mg C mg Chl a ^?1 day^?1. In the north between 27 and 24°S, there were several stations in >1,000 m of water with a shallow (<100 m) and relatively thin layer of high nitrate below the mixed layer but within the euphotic zone. These stations had high primary production at depths of ~100 m (up to 7.5 mg C m^?3 day^?1) with very high rates of production per unit Chl a (up to 150 mg C mg Chl a ^?1 day^?1). At 27–24°S, the majority of the phytoplankton community was the ubiquitous tropical picoplankters, Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus. There was a decline in the dominance of the picoplankters and a shift towards a more diverse community with more diatoms, chlorophytes, prasinophytes and cryptophytes at stations with elevated production. Photosynthetic dinoflagellates were negligible, but heterotrophic dinoflagellate taxa were common. Haptophytes and pelagophytes were also common, but seemed to contribute little to the geographical variation in primary production. The mesoscale features in the Leeuwin Current may have enhanced horizontal exchange and vertical mixing, which introduced nitrate into the euphotic zone, increasing primary production and causing a shift in phytoplankton community composition in association with the annual winter bloom.     

A review of ecological mitigation measures in UK environmental statements with respect to sustainable development

SUMMARY

The European and UK legislation on environmental assessment (EA), as well as requiring assessment of significant ecological effects, also requires development proponents to recommend mitigation measures for adverse impacts.

Drawing on a review of proposed ecological mitigation measures in 194 environmental statements (ES) for UK development proposals, this paper highlights problems with the current legislation in ensuring that ecological impacts are mitigated effectively, with a view to sustainable development.

The review reveals confusion about the extent to which ecological mitigation is required. First, there is no objective basis for deciding which potentially adverse impacts should be mitigated. Proposed mitigation measures do not always relate directly to the ecological impacts identified in ES and there is a high risk of residual adverse effects. Second, there is no generally accepted method for evaluating the effectiveness of proposed mitigation measures, despite a clear recommendation from the UK's Department of the Environment (DOE, 1989) that an ‘assessment of the likely effectiveness’ of mitigation measures should be included in ES. Methods which can be used to evaluate the likely feasibility, costs and redistributional effects of ecological mitigation measures in EA are needed. Some of the factors which should be taken into account are considered in this paper.     

Multidimensional trade-offs in species responses to disturbance: implications for diversity in a subtropical forest

Species employ diverse strategies to cope with natural disturbance, but the importance of these strategies for maintaining tree species diversity in forests has been debated. Mechanisms that have the potential to promote tree species coexistence in the context of repeated disturbance include life history trade-offs in colonization and competitive ability or in species' ability to survive at low resource conditions and exploit the temporary resource-rich conditions often generated in the wake of disturbance (successional niche). Quantifying these trade-offs requires long-term forest monitoring and modeling. We developed a hierarchical Bayes model to investigate the strategies tree species employ to withstand and recover from hurricane disturbance and the life history trade-offs that may facilitate species coexistence in forests subject to repeated hurricane disturbance. Unlike previous approaches, our model accommodates temporal variation in process error and observations from multiple sources. We parameterized the model using growth and mortality data from four censuses of a 16-ha plot taken every five years (1990-2005), together with damage data collected after two hurricanes and annual seed production data (1992-2005). Species' susceptibilities to hurricane damage as reflected by changes in diameter growth and fecundity immediately following a storm were weak, highly variable, and unpredictable using traditional life history groupings. The lower crowding conditions (e.g., high light) generated in the wake of storms, however, led to greater gains in growth and fecundity for pioneer and secondary-forest species than for shade-tolerant species, in accordance with expectation of life history. We found moderate trade-offs between survival in high crowding conditions, a metric of competitive ability, and long-distance colonization. We also uncovered a strong trade-off between mean species fecundity in low crowding conditions, a metric of recovery potential, and competitive ability. Trade-offs in competitive and colonization ability, in addition to successional niche processes, are likely to contribute to species persistence in these hurricane-impacted forests. The strategies species employ to cope with hurricane damage depend on the degree to which species rely on sprouting, repair of adult damage, changes in demographic rates in response to enhanced resource availability after storms, or long-distance dispersal as recovery mechanisms.