Sustaining co-operation for coastal sustainability

Coastal-zone sustainability policies are socially constructed. It follows that their effective implementation depends on the sustainable voluntary co-operation of stakeholders with competing interests and priorities. No form of integrated coastal-zone management can nurture such co-operation as long as the objective is to determine ‘best’ policies, derived by expert-based rational analysis, instead of seeking to identify ‘correct’ policies, ones that can draw the maximum possible stakeholder support. The latter task requires a co-operative coastal-zone management that incorporates the relevant public discourse into the policy formation process in a direct, proactive and conflict minimizing manner. Towards this end, four major challenges are examined for maximizing the stakeholders' motivation for voluntary co-operation: (1) optimism about the level of optimism; (2) agenda setting; (3) value discourse; and (4) information and empowerment.     

Constructing land-use maps of the Netherlands in 2030

The National Environmental Assessment Agency of the RIVM in the Netherlands is obliged to report on future trends in the environment and nature every 4 years. The last report, Nature Outlook 2, evaluated the effects of four alternative socio-economic and demographic scenarios on nature and the landscape. Spatially detailed land-use maps are needed to assess effects on nature and landscape. The objective of the study presented here was how to create spatially detailed land-use maps of the Netherlands in 2030 using the Environment Explorer, a Cellular Automata-based land-use model to construct land-use maps from four scenarios. One of these is discussed in great detail to show how the maps were constructed from the various scenario elements, story lines and additional data and assumptions on national, regional and local land-use developments. It was the first time in the history of our outlooks that consistent, spatially detailed land-use maps of the Netherlands for 2030 were constructed from national economic and demographic scenarios. Each map represents a direct reflection of model input and assumptions. The maps do not show the most probable developments in the Netherlands but describe the possible change in land use if Dutch society were to develop according to one of the four scenarios. The large (societal) uncertainties are reflected in the total set of future land-use maps. The application of a land-use model such as the Environment Explorer ensures that all relevant aspects of a scenario, i.e. economic and demographic developments, zoning policies and urban growth, are integrated systematically into one consistent framework.     

Soil organic carbon and nitrogen accumulation in plots of rhizoma perennial peanut and bahiagrass grown in elevated carbon dioxide and temperature

Carbon sequestration in soils might mitigate the increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Two contrasting subtropical perennial forage species, bahiagrass (BG; Paspalum notatum Flügge; C4), and rhizoma perennial peanut (PP; Arachis glabrata Benth.; C3 legume), were grown at Gainesville, Florida, in field soil plots in four temperature zones of four temperature-gradient greenhouses, two each at CO2 concentrations of 360 and 700 micromol mol(-1). The site had been cultivated with annual crops for more than 20 yr. Herbage was harvested three to four times each year. Soil samples from the top 20 cm were collected in February 1995, before plant establishment, and in December 2000 at the end of the project. Overall mean soil organic carbon (SOC) gains across 6 yr were 1.396 and 0.746 g kg(-1) in BG and PP, respectively, indicating that BG plots accumulated more SOC than PP. Mean SOC gains in BG plots at 700 and 360 micromol mol(-1) CO2 were 1.450 and 1.343 g kg(-1), respectively (not statistically different). Mean SOC gains in PP plots at 700 and 360 micromol mol(-1) CO2 were 0.949 and 0.544 g kg(-1), respectively, an increase caused by elevated CO2. Relative SON accumulations were similar to SOC increases. Overall mean annual SOC accumulation, pooled for forages and CO2 treatments, was 540 kg ha(-1) yr(-1). Eliminating elevated CO2 effects, overall mean SOC accumulation was 475 kg ha(-1) yr(-1). Conversion from cropland to forages was a greater factor in SOC accumulation than the CO2 fertilization effect.     

OPTIMAL WATER USE AND SALINITY CONTROL FOR ENERGY - UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Upper Colorado River Basin contains appreciable amounts of undeveloped fuel resources. Large quantities of oil shale, coal, and uranium have attracted recent economic and commercial interests. Development of these resources and subsequent conversion to alternative energy forms require an adequate supply of water. Water use for large scale energy development will place increasing demands on an already overstressed allocation of Colorado River water. Present water quality is at a concentration where increased salinity will result in economic detriments to holders of downstream water rights. The salt and water exchange in mining, processing, and spent fuel disposal processes has been incorporated as part of a two-level minimum cost linear programming algorithm. Mathematical simulation results provide an optimal use of Upper Colorado River water for levels of energy output such that salinity concentrations are maintained below predetermined levels.     

FLOOD FREQUENCY CHARACTERISTICS OF SOME ARIZONA WATERSHEDS1

The flood frequency characteristics of 18 watersheds in southeastern Arizona were studied using the log-Boughton and the log-Pearson Type 3 distribution. From the flood frequency study, a generalized envelope for Q₁₀₀ for watersheds 0.01 to 4000 mi² in area has been produced for southeastern Arizona. The generalized envelope allows comparisons to be made among the relative flood characteristics of the watersheds used in the study and provides a conservative estimate of Q₁₀₀ for ungaged watersheds in the region.     

BEDLOAD TRANSPORT IN A POOL-RIFFLE SEQUENCE OF A COASTAL ALASKA STREAM1

ABSTRACT: A Helley-Smith pressure differential bedload sampler was used to measure bedload transport at consecutive riffle sections of a riffle-pool-riffle sequence on Bambi Creek, a small (154 ha), second-order stream on Chichagof Island, Alaska, during four storms over a 2-year period. Maximum bedload transport rate measured was 4920 kg/h at a streamflow of 2.35 m³/s corresponding to a storm having a 5-year return interval. Transport of larger sediment (> 8 mm) varied systematically with streamflow at the two sampling locations. At flows up to approximately bankfull, transport of large sediment was greatest at the upstream site; at flows above bankfull, transport of large sediment was greatest at the downstream site. The net import of large sediment to the pool during moderate stormflows and net export of large sediment from the pool during flows above bankfull may be related to a “convergence” or “reversal” of competence between the upstream riffle and subsequent pool at flows approximating bankfull stage. Cross-sections monitored within the study reach indicate that stormflows resulted in net filling of the riffle sections and net scour of the pool; periods of low streamflow resulted in net scour of the riffles and net filling of the pooL     

Ecological effects of coastal marsh impoundments: A review

Many coastal resource managers believe estuarine marshes are critically important to estuarine fish and shellfish, not only because of the habitat present for juvenile stages, but also because of the export of detritus and plant nutrients that are consumed in the estuary. Concern has been widely expressed that diking and flooding marshes (impounding) for mosquito control and waterfowl management interferes with these values of marshes. Major changes caused by impoundment include an increase in water level, a decrease in salinity, and a decrease in the exchange of marsh water with estuarine water. Alteration of species composition is dramatic after impoundment. Changes in overall production and transport phenomena, however—and the consequences of these changes— may not be as great in some cases as the concern about these has implied. Although few data are available, a more important concern may be the reduction of access by estuarine fish and shellfish to the abundant foods and cover available in many natural, as well as impounded, marshes. Perhaps even more important is the occasional removal of free access to open water when conditions become unfavorable in impounded marsh that is periodically opened and closed. Collection of comparative data on the estuarine animal use of various configurations of natural and impounded marshes by estuarine animals should lead to improved management of both impounded and unimpounded marshes.     

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS1

ABSTRACT: A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that includsion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.