Climate change adaptation in the ski industry

Regardless of the success of climate change mitigation efforts, the international community has concluded that societies around the world will need to adapt to some magnitude of climate change in the 21st century. While some economic sectors (e.g., agriculture, water resources and construction) have been actively engaged in climate change adaptation research for years, adaptation has received scant consideration within the tourism-recreation industry. This is particularly the case for adaptation by tourism operators (supply-side). One exception where progress on supply-side climate adaptation has been made is the ski industry. This paper provides a brief overview of the literature on the implications of climate change for the international ski industry and how adaptation by ski area operators has been treated within these studies. This is followed by an inventory of climate adaptation practices currently used by ski industry stakeholders, including the historical development of certain key adaptations and constraints to wider use. The characteristics of ski areas with higher adaptive capacity are identified. Considering the highly competitive nature of the ski industry and the generally low climate change risk appraisal within the industry, climate change adaptation is anticipated to remain individualistic and reactive for some time. With only a few exceptions, the existing climate change literature on winter tourism has not considered the wide range of adaptation options identified in this paper and has likely overestimated potential damages. An important task for future studies is to develop methodologies to incorporate adaptation so that a more accurate understanding of the vulnerability of the international ski industry can be ascertained.     

应对不确定性:呼吁建立新的科学政策论坛

科学界和政策界具有不同的目标,这就自然导致了对构成某种变化或现象的"检验"标准的差异,以及用不同的方法去描述不确定性和风险的持性及传达不确定性和风险.这些差异可能损害科学家、决策者和公众之间的有效沟通,同时也限制了科学家所愿意研究的社会紧迫问题的类型.本文主要回顾了一系列处理不确定性问题的方法,阐述了当科学和政策不能很好协调时所可能引起的一些错误.并在此基础上,特别针对解决不确定性问题提出了一些具体建议,包括重构科学规范,建立由科学、政策两方面领导广泛参加的科学政策论坛.     

Coping with uncertainty: a call for a new science-policy forum

The scientific and policy worlds have different goals, which can lead to different standards for what constitutes "proof" of a change or phenomena, and different approaches for characterizing and conveying uncertainty and risk. These differences can compromise effective communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public, and constrain the types of socially compelling questions scientists are willing to address. In this paper, we review a set of approaches for dealing with uncertainty, and illustrate some of the errors that arise when science and policy fail to coordinate correctly. We offer a set of recommendations, including restructuring of science curricula and establishment of science-policy forums populated by leaders in both arenas, and specifically constituted to address problems of uncertainty.     

A landscape ecology assessment of land-use change on the Great Plains-Denver (CO,USA) metropolitan edge

Regional Environmental Change - For better or worse, in those parts of the world with a widespread farming, livestock rising, and urban expansion, the maintenance of species richness and ecosystem...     

Testing of a GIS model ofEucalyptus Iargiflorens health on a semiarid,saline floodplain

Irrigated agriculture has resulted in substantial changes in water flows to the lower reaches of the River Murray. These changes have led to large-scale occurrences of dieback inEucalyptus largiflorens (black box) woodlands as well as increased inputs of salt to the river. Management options to address problems of this scale call for the use of spatial data sets via geographic information systems (GIS). A GIS exists for one floodplain of the River Murray at Chowilla, and a simple model predicted six health classes ofEucalyptus largiflorens based on groundwater salinity, flooding frequency, and groundwater depth.To determine the usefulness of the model for vegetation management, the quality of both the model and the GIS data sets were tested. Success of the testing procedure was judged by the degree of spatial matching between the model's predictions of health and that assessed from aerial photographs and by field truthing. Analyses at 80 sites showed that tree health was significantly greater where groundwater salinity was less than 40 dS/m or flooding occurred more frequently than 1 in 10 years or depth to groundwater exceeded 4 m. Testing of the GIS data sets found that vegetation was misclassified at 15% of sites. Association was shown between GIS-predicted values and field-truthed values of groundwater salinity but not groundwater depth. The GIS model of health is a useful starting point for future vegetation management and can be further improved by increasing the quality of the data coverages and further refining of the model to optimize parameters and thresholds.     

Mental models of safety: do managers and employees see eye to eye?

PROBLEM: Disagreements between managers and employees about the causes of accidents and unsafe work behaviors can lead to serious workplace conflicts and distract organizations from the important work of establishing positive safety climate and reducing the incidence of accidents. METHOD AND RESULTS: In this study, the authors examine a model for predicting safe work behaviors and establish the model's consistency across managers and employees in a steel plant setting. Using the model previously described by Brown, Willis, and Prussia (2000), the authors found that when variables influencing safety are considered within a framework of safe work behaviors, managers and employees share a similar mental model. The study then contrasts employees' and managers' specific attributional perceptions. Findings from these more fine-grained analyses suggest the two groups differ in several respects about individual constructs. Most notable were contrasts in attributions based on their perceptions of safety climate. When perceived climate is poor, managers believe employees are responsible and employees believe managers are responsible for workplace safety. However, as perceived safety climate improves, managers and employees converge in their perceptions of who is responsible for safety. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: It can be concluded from this study that in a highly interdependent work environment, such as a steel mill, where high system reliability is essential and members possess substantial experience working together, managers and employees will share general mental models about the factors that contribute to unsafe behaviors, and, ultimately, to workplace accidents. It is possible that organizations not as tightly coupled as steel mills can use such organizations as benchmarks, seeking ways to create a shared understanding of factors that contribute to a safe work environment. Part of this improvement effort should focus on advancing organizational safety climate. As climate improves, managers and employees are likely to agree more about the causes of safe/unsafe behaviors and workplace accidents, ultimately increasing their ability to work in unison to prevent accidents and to respond appropriately when they do occur. Finally, the survey items included in this study may be useful to organizations wishing to conduct self-assessments.     

The effect of vent ducts on the reduced explosion pressures of vented dust explosions

An investigation into the effects of vent ducts on reduced explosion pressures is described. Experiments were made using an 18.5m³ explosion vessel and a modified 20 1 sphere, with dusts having K_st values ranging from 144 bar ms⁻¹ to 630 bar ms⁻¹. The vent area/vessel volume ratio bursting pressure of the vent cover, and the length to diameter ratio of the vent duct have been varied. Straight vent ducts, and ducts containing sharp 45° and 90° bends have been used.A simple model to describe the effect of vent ducts on the reduced explosion pressure has been derived and compared with the experimental results. Agreement is shown to be satisfactory in nearly all cases. A comparison between the experimental results and guidance on the effect of vent ducts already available in the literature is discussed.     

Developing Environmentally Respectful Policy Programmes: Five Key Principles

In contemporary governance situations, varying, but often similar, ecological, economic, cultural and social challenges are experienced by differing stakeholder groups in a variety of policy sectors. To meet such challenges requires attention both to policy agendas and to policy processes, the ways in which policy is developed. This paper sets out some principles for policy making that can help to meet these challenges while acknowledging the inevitable limits to policy success. Such principles have particular pertinence in relation to environmental issues that often suffer from being divorced from mainstream institutional structures and often lack policy communities with a specific remit to champion their concern. The authors suggest that to maximize success and minimize failure, policy processes must be deliberative rather than solely technocratic and should attempt as far as possible to: articulate their message clearly; frame activity in the policy sector and as far as possible help guide strategies and programmes in other relevant sectors; help co-ordinate policy interventions through links to other policy communities operating across differing spatial scales; be legitimized through working with a broad range of stakeholder groups; and mobilize stakeholders toward implementing programme goals.     

Climate change and disaster management

Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.     

Collembola and macroarthropod community responses to carbamate, organophosphate and synthetic pyrethroid insecticides: direct and indirect effects

Non-target effects on terrestrial arthropod communities of the broad-spectrum insecticides chlorpyrifos and cypermethrin and the selective insecticide pirimicarb were investigated in winter wheat fields in summer. Effects of chlorpyrifos on arthropod abundance and taxonomic richness were consistently negative whereas effects of cypermethrin were negative for predatory arthropods but positive for soil surface Collembola. Pirimicarb effects were marginal, primarily on aphids and their antagonists, with no effect on the Collembola community. Collembola-predator ratios were significantly higher following cypermethrin treatment, suggesting that cypermethrin-induced increases in collembolan abundance represent a classical resurgence. Observations in other studies suggest Collembola resurgences may be typical after synthetic pyrethroid applications. Collembola responses to insecticides differed among species, both in terms of effect magnitude and persistence, suggesting that coarse taxonomic monitoring would not adequately detect pesticide risks. These findings have implications for pesticide risk assessments and for the selection of indicator species.