REGION OF INFLUENCE REGRESSION FOR ESTIMATING THE 50-YEAR FLOOD AT UNGAGED SITES1

ABSTRACT: Five methods of developing regional regression models to estimate flood characteristics at ungaged sites in Arkansas are examined. The methods differ in the manner in which the State is divided into subregions. Each successive method (A to E) is computationally more complex than the previous method. Method A makes no subdivision. Methods B and C define two and four geographic subregions, respectively. Method D uses cluster/discriminant analysis to define subregions on the basis of similarities in watershed characteristics. Method E, the new region of influence method, defines a unique subregion for each ungaged site. Split-sample results indicate that, in terms of root-mean-square error, method E (38 percent error) is best. Methods C and D (42 and 41 percent error) were in a virtual tie for second, and methods B (44 percent error) and A (49 percent error) were fourth and fifth best.     

The NIOSH program for evaluating biomechanical hazards in the workplace

Twenty evaluations of reported biomechanical hazards were performed by the National Institue for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) at the request of industrial workers or management over an 8-year period. The evaluations were part of the Hazard Evaluation and Technical Assistance (HETA) program authorized under the Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970. A number of these evaluations are described here. Principles drawn from the field of ergonomics were used to evaluate whether a certain work activity has caused an observed incidence of cumulative trauma to the neuro-musculo-skeletal system. Procedures for conducting these ergonomic evaluations are reviewed, and the results are summarized. Recommendations are made for implementing control procedures, and the problem of obtaining reliable follow-up information is discussed. Project results suggest an encouraging degree of success in accomplishing prevention and control of biochemical hazards in the workplaces studied.     

Excess plutonium in soil near the Nevada Test Site,USA

Two soil profiles were collected from undisturbed areas near the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The activity of 137Cs in the surface layer of the downwind Queen City Summit profile is three times higher than at the upwind site at Searchlight, NV (41.1+/-0.6 mBq/g vs. 13.0+/-0.4 mBq/g), and the 239,240Pu activity is 100 times greater (51+/-2 mBq/g vs. 0.52+/-0.03 mBq/g). An examination of the literature suggests that the 137Cs/239,240Pu and the 239,240Pu/238Pu activity ratios in soils and sediments from the northern hemisphere, due to fallout from atmospheric atomic weapons testing, have generalized values of 36+/-4 and 30+/-4, respectively (as of 1 July 1995). Deviations from these values may indicate possible contamination by sources other than fallout. Data from the surface soil of the downwind Queen City Summit profile yield a 137Cs/239,240Pu ratio of 0.81+/-0.02 and a 239,240Pu/238Pu ratio of 78+/-6. Clearly, an increase in 239,240Pu relative to 137Cs or 238Pu can account for these observations. There is compelling evidence that this "excess" 239,240Pu came from activities at the NTS during the aboveground testing of nuclear devices, more than likely from safety tests, some 40 years ago, and/or during the interim by the wind-driven resuspension of contaminated surface soil on the NTS and its transport off-site. Moreover, the two concentration profiles show that high percentages of both of these elements are retained for decades in the upper few centimeters of soil in Nevada's desert environment.     

TBT in California coastal waters: Monitoring and assessment

Butyltins were monitored at over eighty sites, primarily marinas, in surface waters and sediments of the California coast. Values of tributyltin (TBT) in marina waters ranged from 20 to 600 ppt while lower values were usually found in harbors and on the coast. The origin of the tributyltin is in its use as an antifouling agent in marine paints. In those marinas where the concentrations are greater than about 100 ppt, there is usually a conspicuous absence of native organisms, especially molluscs, which are among the most sensitive animals to the highly toxic TBT. The impact of TBT upon not-target organisms recalls the DDT episode of the 1970s. Increasing uses of TBT-containing antifouling paints in the future may have even more drastic effects on coastal organisms than those observed today. The conclusion is inescapable that TBT should be banned for use in commercially available marine paints.     

The concentration, apparent molecular weight and chemical reactivity of silica from groundwater in southern Nevada

Sorption of radionuclides, metals and organic compounds to colloidal particles has been suggested to increase the mobility of these pollutants in groundwater. Because silicates and alumino-silicates can be important components of groundwater colloids, we have conducted a study to characterize the nature of silica in various springs and wells in Southern Nevada and to determine the extent that silica may be associated with colloidal particles that can participate in pollutant transport. The total silica content was measured using inductively coupled plasma emission spectroscopy (ICP). In addition, reactive silica was measured using the silica molybdate colorimetric technique. The apparent molecular weight of the silica was investigated using split-flow-lateral-transport-thin-cell-fractionation (SPLITT) which can readily distinguish between colloidal and low molecular weight associations. This study indicates that silica does not tend to form stable inorganic colloids in Southern Nevada groundwaters but exists as low molecular weight species. However, water from one of the test facilities on the Nevada Test Site (NTS) did contain stable siliceous colloids that could have important implications for the modeling the transport of radionuclides at this site.     

Modelling nitrogen fluxes at the landscape scale

The distribution and impacts of different nitrogen pollutants are inextricably linked. To understand the problem fully, the interactions between the different pollutants need to be taken into account. This is particularly important when it comes to abatement techniques, since measures to reduce emissions of one nitrogen pollutant can often lead to an increase in another. This project represents a step towards greater understanding of these issues by linking together new and existing nitrogen flux models into a larger framework. The modelling framework has been constructed and some of the nitrogen flows between fields, farms and the atmosphere have been modelled for a UK study area for typical farm management scenarios.     

Brazil's National Atlantic Forest Policy: A Challenge for State-level Environmental Planning. The Case of Santa Catarina,Brazil

Formulating effective national forest policy in lesser developed countries is complex and needs to take into account the social as well as the biophysical dimensions which impact on forest resources. Deforestation continues to be a serious concern in many of these countries and most national forest policy seeks to curb the devastationof forest resources. Due to different social groups competing for use of the forest resources, however, designing effective policy is challenging. The needs of these different social groups must be considered.Unless this is done, the forest policy itself can be an impetus for deforestation.In the southern Brazilian state of Santa Catarina, deforestation in the Atlantic forest (Mata Atlantica) is occurring at a rapid rate, threatening the richness of biodiversity. There are a number of causes for deforestation in Santa Catarina, one being Brazil's national Atlantic forest policy. Unintentionally, the structure of this conservation-focusedpolicy has declared all of Santa Catarina's native forests off-limits to any type of exploitation, the only state in Brazil where this has occurred, and has actually precipitated deforestation. Challenges for state-level planning include addressing the national forest policy as well as the state-levelimpacts resulting from the policy. The history of the policy, the social groups affected and challenges for planning are discussed, as are proposed solutions.     

The setting of standards for agricultural nitrogen emissions: a case study of the Delphi technique

The Delphi technique is a means of aggregating the judgement of a panel of experts in order to improve the quality of decision-making. This paper provides a case study of the technique by undertaking a three-round Delphi study to determine a package of best available techniques to reduce nitrogen emissions from a poultry unit under the Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control Directive (IPPC). Forms of nitrogen addressed included ammonia (NH3), nitrous oxide (N2O) nitrogen oxides (NOx), dusts and nitrate (NO3-), with the study providing a means to prioritise the pollution concerns on different spatial scales. The priority pollutant issues were the contribution of NH3 to eutrophication, the global cooling effect of NH4+ aerosol, the role of NH4+ as a vector for atmospheric transport of NOx and SO2, the contribution of N2O to global warming, and NO3- leaching. Reduced nitrogen (NHx) was rated as a priority on all scales, while N2O and NO3- were rated as priorities only on global and local scales, respectively. The study indicated the need for abatement techniques at each stage of poultry rearing and waste management, with particular attention to reduce NH3 emissions, reflecting the priority pollutant concerns. Measures identified by the panel include maintenance of dry litter, low emission removal of litter from housing and storage of litter under cover. Once the litter has left the farm, this should either be used as a biofuel for electricity generation or rapidly incorporated into agricultural soils. The amounts and timing of manure application should be tuned to crop needs. Uncertainties in the Delphi technique limit its suitability as a stand-alone decision making tool. However, the Delphi technique proved useful in identifying priority pollutant issues, areas of agreement, disagreement and where information is lacking. This demonstrates its use when dealing with the complex issues of prioritising pollution issues and abatement approaches.     

Biological monitoring of chlorpyrifos exposure to rice farmers in Vietnam

Chlorpyrifos is the most common organophosphate insecticide registered for use in Vietnam and is widely used in agriculture, particularly rice farming. However, chlorpyrifos exposure to and adverse effects on farmers has not been evaluated. In this study, biological monitoring of chlorpyrifos exposure in a group of rice farmers was conducted after a typical application event using back-pack spraying.Urine samples (24 h) were collected from the rice farmers before and post insecticide application. Samples were analysed for 3,5,6-trichloropyridinol (TCP), the major urinary metabolite of chlorpyrifos, using an enzymatic pre-treatment before extraction followed by HPLC-MS/MS. Absorbed Daily Dose (ADD) of chlorpyrifos for farmers were then estimated from urinary TCP levels, expressed as μg g⁻¹ creatinine. The analytical method for urinary TCP had a low detection limit (0.6 μg L⁻¹), acceptable recovery values (80-114%), and low relative percentage differences in duplicate and repeated samples.Post-application chlorpyrifos ADD of farmers varied from 0.4 to 94.2 μg kg⁻¹ (body weight) d⁻¹ with a mean of 19.4 μg kg⁻¹ d⁻¹ which was approximately 80-fold higher than the mean baseline exposure level (0.24 μg kg⁻¹ d⁻¹). Hazard Quotients (ratio of the mean ADD for rice farmers to acute oral reference dose) calculated using acute oral reference doses recommended by United States and Australian agencies varied from 2.1 (Australian NRA), 4.2 (US EPA) to 6.9 (ATSDR).Biological monitoring using HPLC-MS/MS analysis of urinary TCP (24 h) was found to be an effective method for measuring chlorpyrifos exposure among farmers. This case study found that Vietnamese rice farmers had relatively high exposures to chlorpyrifos after application, which were likely to have adverse health effects.