Development,Malaria and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from India

India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.     

Effects of population and population pressure on forest resources and their conservation: a modeling study

In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study the depletion of forest resources caused by population and the corresponding population pressure. It is assumed that the cumulative density of forest resources and the density of populations follow logistic models with prey–predator type nonlinear interaction terms. It is considered that the carrying capacity of forest resources decreases by population pressure, the main focus of this paper. A conservation model is also proposed to control the population pressure by providing some economic incentives to people, the amount of which is assumed to be proportional to the population pressure. The model is analyzed by using stability theory of differential equations and numerical simulation. The model analysis shows that as the density of population or population pressure increases, the cumulative density of forest resources decreases, and the resources may become extinct if the population pressure becomes too large. It is also noted that by controlling the population pressure, using some economic incentives, the density of forest resources can be maintained at an equilibrium level, which is population density dependent. The simulation analysis of the model confirms analytical results.     

Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

In the coming years India faces greatchallenges in energy and environment. Thepath of development chosen by India, uponwhich lies the future growth of energy andemission trajectories, would be greatlyinfluenced by technological developmentsboth within and outside the country,economic cooperation between countries, andglobal cooperation in limiting greenhousegas emissions. This paper discusses theintegrated modeling system used fordeveloping and analyzing the long-termtrajectories and presents results for thescenarios developed. In the context ofongoing market reforms two scenarios –accelerated and decelerated reforms – aredeveloped depicting fast and slow progressin energy sector reforms compared toexpectations in the baseline scenario.Accelerated market reforms would spurimprovements in technological efficiencies.Reforms would lower investment risks inIndia, thereby stimulating increased levelsof foreign direct investment. On the otherhand in decelerated reform scenarioeconomic growth is lower than that in thebase case, there is low access to capital,and technological improvements lag behindthose in the base case. In another scenariowe assume specific policy interventions forpenetration of renewable technologies overthe baseline scenario, for promotion andaccelerated deployment of renewable energytechnologies over and above the baselineassumptions. A scenario with carbon(c) constraints has also been developed and theresults discussed.     

Bioaccumulation of Ra by plants growing in fresh water ecosystem around the uranium industry at Jaduguda, India

A field study has been conducted to evaluate the ²²⁶Ra bioaccumulation among aquatic plants growing in the stream/river adjoining the uranium mining and ore-processing complex at Jaduguda, India. Two types of plant group have been investigated namely free floating algal species submerged into water and plants rooted in stream & riverbed. The highest ²²⁶Ra activity concentration (9850 Bq kg⁻¹) was found in filamentous algae growing in the residual water of tailings pond. The concentration ratios of ²²⁶Ra in filamentous algae (activity concentration of ²²⁶Ra in plant Bq kg⁻¹ fresh weight/activity concentration of ²²⁶Ra in water Bq l⁻¹) widely varied i.e. from 1.1 × 10³ to 8.6 × 10⁴. Other aquatic plants were also showing wide variability in the ²²⁶Ra activity concentration. The ln-transformed filamentous algae ²²⁶Ra activity concentration was significantly correlated with that of ln-transformed water concentration (r = 0.89, p < 0.001). There was no correlation between the activity concentrations of ²²⁶Ra in stream/riverbed rooted plants and the substrate. For this group, correlation between ²²⁶Ra activity concentration and Mn, Fe, Cu concentration in plants were statistically significant.     

Effect of metallic pollutants on the physiology of lichen, Pyxine subcinerea Stirton in Garhwal Himalayas

Chl. a, Chl. b, total Chl., Carotenoid, Protein and OD 435/OD 415 ratio were measured to estimate the possible damage caused by the metallic pollutants in the lichen, Pyxine subcinerea Stirton collected from four different sites of Srinagar Garhwal, Uttaranchal, India. Multiple correlation analysis revealed significant correlation (P < 0.001) among the Fe, Ni, Cu, Cr, Zn and Pb metals analysed. Cd did not correlate with any other metals except Fe (P < 0.05). Cu, Pb and Zn, are the main constituents of the vehicular emissions had significant positive correlation (P < 0.001) with protein content while, the OD 435/OD 415 ratio values decreased statistically (P < 0.001) with increase in amount of Cu, Pb and Zn.     

Selection of suitable lichen bioindicator species for monitoring climatic variability in the Himalaya

Interspecific comparison in metals and PAHs profile in three lichen species, Flavoparmelia caperata, Phaeophyscia hispidula and Pyxine sorediata, were studied in different altitudinal gradients of the Western Himalayas. The species collected from 14 sites, enroute from Dehradun to Morinda (243 Km) including the trekking route 42 Km from Taluka to Morinda having an altitudinal gradient between 850–3,750 m, were analysed for their metals and PAHs. The species showed similar metal as well as PAHs profile under similar altitudinal gradients in the sequence of F. caperata > P. hispidula > P. sorediata. The difference in pollutant concentrations within each lichen species may be related to intrinsic attributes of the species, such as thallus morphology and the presence of lichen substances which are responsible for the sensitivity and accumulation potential of a particular species. Novelty of the present study lies on the fact that all the species show a similar efficiency of reflecting the environmental condition of the area, albeit the coefficient values of individual species for individual pollutant obtained by three-factor ANOVA revealed that the bioaccumulation affinity of F. caperata is significantly higher than P. hispidula and P. sorediata. For individual metals, F. caperata has a higher affinity for Al, Cr, Fe, Pb and Zn while P. hispidula has a significant positive affinity for Fe and Pb. PCA analysis of sites with respect to pollutant revealed the segregation of sites based on source and distance. Combining the bioaccumulation potential parameters along with geostatistical (GIS) techniques establishes that F. caperata species is a better accumulator of metals and PAHs in comparison to P. hispidula and P. sorediata in the temperate regions of the Himalaya.     

Semen quality of environmentally exposed human population: the toxicological consequence

Human data on the relationship of semen quality with pesticide and metals are mostly inconsistent. The purpose of the study is to confirm the toxicity of organochlorine pesticide β- and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), DDE and DDD, and metals lead or cadmium on sperm motility in epidemiological study among fertile and infertile men and to determine whether in vivo and in vitro results are in the same direction. Semen analysis and estimation of the toxicants were done in 60 fertile and 150 infertile men. In the in vitro studies, sperm were exposed to the highest levels of these toxicants found in vivo, as well as five and ten times higher, and to the mixture of all compounds. The study assesses sperm viability and motility for a period ranging between 30 min and 96 h. Epidemiological data showed an inverse correlation of toxicant with sperm motility. In vitro study showed that γ-HCH and lead after 12 h, cadmium after 8 h, and coexposure to toxicants after 6 h of exposure caused significant concentration- and duration-dependent decline in sperm motility. Data of in vitro study were concurrent with epidemiological finding that might be useful in establishing the possible association between exposure and effect of these selected pollutants on sperm motility.     

Impact assessment of a hydroelectric project on the flora in the Western Himalayan region based on vegetation analysis and socio-economic studies

This study provides an overview of the impacts of a proposed hydroelectric power project in the Western Himalayan region in India, using a primary database on floristic diversity and vegetation analysis. The remote sensing data revealed that in the submergence zone only mixed deciduous forest that occupies 807.5 ha area and has a wood biomass volume of 4,027,503 m³ is likely to be lost due to impoundment. A total of 165 plant species found in the submergence zone also occur in the influence and free draining catchment area of the project. In the influence zone of the project area only one tree species (Acer oblongum) is found under conservation threat category, which is also present in the free draining catchment of the project. The project affected population (6716 people) residing in the submergence and influence zone depend upon the surrounding forests for fuel wood, fodder, wild edibles etc., and most likely they will settle in the nearby areas, thus mounting more pressure on residual forests of the influence zone for various forest products. Further, from the vegetation analysis it is evident that several tree species (e.g. Lannea coromandelica, Terminalia alata, T. bellerica etc.), may face more pressure from exploitation as they provide a number of useful products and are represented in lower numbers in the forests of the project area. To compensate for the loss of various goods and services provided by the forests falling in the submergence zone and to offset the increased pressure of the project affected families on the forests of influence zone, a biodiversity management plan is suggested incorporating socio-economic considerations.