SELECTING TREND TESTS FOR WATER QUALITY SERIES WITH SERIAL CORRELATION AND MISSING VALUES1

ABSTRACT: The use of nonparametric tests for monotonic trend has flourished in recent years to support routine water quality data analyses. The validity of an assumption of independent, identically distributed error terms is an important concern in selecting the appropriate nonparametric test, as is the presence of missing values. Decision rules are needed for choosing between alternative tests and for deciding whether and how to pre-process data before trend testing. Several data pre-processing procedures in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall tau and the Seasonal Kendall test (with and without serial correlation correction) are evaluated using synthetic time series with generated serial correlation and missing data. A composite test (pre-testing for serial correlation followed by one of two trend tests) is evaluated and was found to perform satisfactorily.     

Pentachlorotoluene and pentabromotoluene: results of a subacute and a subchronic toxicity study in the rat

Pentachlorotoluene (PCT) and pentabromotoluene (PBT) are environmental contaminants detected in the Great Lakes ecosystem. In view of the paucity of toxicity data and the potential for human exposure, a subacute (28 day) and a subchronic (91 day) study were conducted in the rat. In the subacute study, groups of 10 male and 10 female rats were fed the diet containing PCT or PBT at 0, 0.5, 5.0, 50 or 500 ppm for 28-days. In the subchronic study, the group size was increased to 15, the dose levels were 0, 0.05, 0.5, 5.0, 50 and 500 ppm in the diet and the exposure period was 91 days. Growth rate and food consumption were not affected by exposure to either chemical in the subacute and subchronic study. Clinical observations revealed no abnormalities. Decreased hemoglobin was observed in female rats fed 5.0 ppm PCT and higher levels in the subacute (28 day) study. In the same study the hematocrit value and erythrocyte numbers of females fed 5.0 or 500 ppm PCT diets were significantly lower than the control. In both subacute and subchronic studies mild dose-dependent histopathological changes were observed in the thyroid, liver and kidney of rats fed PCT and PBT diets. In general male rats were more susceptible than females to the treatment of PCT and PBT. Based on these data, it was concluded that the no observable adverse effect level for PCT was 50 ppm in the diet (3.5 mg/kg b.w./day) and that of PBT was 5.0 ppm (0.35 mg/kg b.w./day).     

First-trimester fetal sex determination in maternal serum using real-time PCR

An Erratum has been published for this article in Prenatal Diagnosis 22(13) 2002, 1241. Fetal sex prediction can be achieved using PCR targeted at the SRY gene by analysing cell-free fetal DNA in maternal serum. Unfortunately, the results reported to date show a lack of sensitivity, especially during the first trimester of pregnancy. Therefore, determination of fetal sex by maternal serum analysis could not replace karyotype analysis following chorionic villus sampling. A new highly sensitive real-time PCR was developped to detect an SRY gene sequence in maternal serum. Analysis was performed on 121 pregnant women during the first trimester of pregnancy (mean gestational age: 11.8 weeks). Among them, 51 had at least one previous male-bearing pregnancy. Results were compared with fetal sex. SRY PCR analysis of maternal serum was in complete concordance with fetal sex. Among the 121 pregnant women, 61 were bearing a male fetus and 60 a female fetus. No false-negative results were observed. Furthermore, no false-positive results occurred, even though 27 women carrying a female fetus during the current pregnancy had at least one previous male-bearing pregnancy. This study demonstrates that a reliable, non-invasive sex determination can be achieved by PCR analysis of maternal serum during the first trimester of pregnancy. This non-invasive approach for fetal sex prediction should have great implications in the management of pregnant women who are carriers of an X-linked genetic disorder. Prenatal diagnosis might thus be performed for male fetuses only, avoiding invasive procedures and the risk of the loss of female fetuses. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ecological and Economic Services Provided by Birds on Jamaican Blue Mountain Coffee Farms

Abstract: Coffee farms can support significant biodiversity, yet intensification of farming practices is degrading agricultural habitats and compromising ecosystem services such as biological pest control. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) is the world's primary coffee pest. Researchers have demonstrated that birds reduce insect abundance on coffee farms but have not documented avian control of the berry borer or quantified avian benefits to crop yield or farm income. We conducted a bird‐exclosure experiment on coffee farms in the Blue Mountains, Jamaica, to measure avian pest control of berry borers, identify potential predator species, associate predator abundance and borer reductions with vegetation complexity, and quantify resulting increases in coffee yield. Coffee plants excluded from foraging birds had significantly higher borer infestation, more borer broods, and greater berry damage than control plants. We identified 17 potential predator species (73% were wintering Neotropical migrants), and 3 primary species composed 67% of migrant detections. Average relative bird abundance and diversity and relative resident predator abundance increased with greater shade‐tree cover. Although migrant predators overall did not respond to vegetation complexity variables, the 3 primary species increased with proximity to noncoffee habitat patches. Lower infestation on control plants was correlated with higher total bird abundance, but not with predator abundance or vegetation complexity. Infestation of fruit was 1–14% lower on control plants, resulting in a greater quantity of saleable fruits that had a market value of US$44–$105/ha in 2005/2006. Landscape heterogeneity in this region may allow mobile predators to provide pest control broadly, despite localized farming intensities. These results provide the first evidence that birds control coffee berry borers and thus increase coffee yield and farm income, a potentially important conservation incentive for producers.     

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Combined influence of food level and inoculation density on competition between <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anuraeopsis fissa</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus patulus</Emphasis> or <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brachionus macracanthus</Emphasis> (Rotifera: Brachionidae)

We tested separately the effect of two taxonomically related rotifers (B. patulus and B. macracanthus) on the population dynamics of another species (A. fissa) at low (0.5 ×10 ⁶) and high food levels (1.5 × 10⁶ cells/ml of Chlorella vulgaris) using different inoculation densities (0–100%). We also quantified the impact of A. fissa on the two brachionid species. Regardless of the presence of the competing species, an increase in the availability of food led to increase in the abundances of the three rotifers. The population growth of B. patulus, B. macracanthus, or A. fissa was affected negatively when cultured together with another species. An increase in the initial density of any one of the competing species became advantageous to maintain a certain population size. At a low algal food level, B. patulus was able to suppress A. fissa more strongly than B. macracanthus. On the other hand, at a high food level, B. macracanthus suppressed the population of A. fissa more strongly than B. patulus. Peak population densities for A. fissa varied from about 150 to 1000 ind./ml, depending on food density and the presence of competitors. The rate of population increase (r) of A. fissa, B. patulus, and B. macracanthus increased with an increase in food availability but decreased with increasing initial density of the competitor. Both Brachionus spp. experienced negative growth rates in the presence of A. fissa, especially at a high initial density of the latter. Published in Russian in Ekologiya, 2007, Vol. 38, No. 5, pp. 381–390. The article was submitted by the authors in English.