Biodiversity resilience in the Central Indian Highlands is contingent on maintaining and recovering landscape connectivity: the tiger as a case study

Corridors (variably called landscape linkages, connectors, and gateways) are expanses of a landscape that facilitate the flow or movement of individuals, genes, and ecological processes. Protected areas with their buffer zones and the corridors that connect them are cornerstones of modern conservation actions to maintain the biodiversity we have and restore what we have lost. Policy and governance to guide the establishment and management of protected areas and supporting buffer zones is well established in the Central Indian Highlands. A policy and governance structure to create the context and enabling conditions for corridor maintenance, creation, and recovery is emerging but is constrained by the reigning land-management paradigm that separates conservation from development rather than mainstreaming species and habitat conservation into the rural development agenda. Well-nourished, healthy human populations and healthy ecosystems are inextricably linked. The worsening ecological conditions in the Central Indian Highlands can trigger the emergence of a common agenda for an inclusive, caring, and environment-friendly mode of development. The alternative is the business-as-usual scenario: a continuation of worsening ecological conditions. Entry points through the biodiversity, agriculture production, resource extraction, and economic/social sectors to enable integrated sustainable landscape management are identified. These include deepening what it means to successfully conserve a species combined with explicit threat analysis for at-risk tigers and the landscapes that supports them; landscape scenario modeling to advance communication by synthesizing diverse forms of research and articulating and evaluating alternative socio-economic futures; and the use of the smart green infrastructure process as an approach to development rather than only as a way to mitigate environmental damage. Models are presented to scale up from isolated conservation interventions to collective impact that unites supportive government partners with individuals, NGOs, and economic interests to achieve viable long-term relationships in human and natural systems to value, maintain, and recover landscape connectivity.     

Connecting the dots: mapping habitat connectivity for tigers in central India

Large connected landscapes are paramount to maintain top predator populations. Across their range, tiger (Panthera tigris) populations occur in small fragmented patches of habitat, often isolated by large distances in human-dominated landscapes. We assessed connectivity between 16 protected areas (PAs) in central India, a global priority landscape for tiger conservation, using data on land use and land cover, human population density, and transportation infrastructure. We identified and prioritized movement routes using a combination of least-cost corridor modeling and circuit theory. Our analyses suggest that there are several opportunities to maintain connectivity in this landscape. We mapped a total of thirty-five linkages in the region and calculated metrics to estimate their quality and importance. The highest quality linkages as measured by the ratio of cost-weighted distance to Euclidean distance are Kanha–Phen/Bandhavgarh–SanjayGhasidas/Melghat–Satpura, and cost-weighted distance to least-cost path length are Nawegaon–Tadoba/Achanakmar–SanjayGhasidas/Kanha–Phen. We used current flow centrality to evaluate the contribution of each PA and linkage toward facilitating animal movement. Values are highest for Kanha and Pench tiger reserves, and the linkages between Kanha–Phen, Kanha–Pench, and Pench–Satpura, suggesting that these PAs and linkages play a critical role in maintaining connectivity in central India. In addition, smaller areas such as Bor, Nawegaon, and Phen have high centrality scores relative to their areas and thus may act as important stepping stones. We mapped pinch points, which are sections of the linkages where tiger movement is restricted due to unfavorable habitat, transportation networks, human habitation, or a combination of factors. Currently, very limited data exist on tiger movement outside of PAs to validate model results. Regional-scale connectivity mapping efforts can assist managers and policy makers to develop strategic plans for balancing wildlife conservation and other land uses in the landscape.     

Institutional challenges of adopting ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change

In view of past environmental degradation and anticipated climate change impacts, we assessed the potential for ecosystem-based adaptation in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. In a workshop with staff from three Catchment Management Authorities (CMAs) who had jurisdiction over three sub-basins, as well as technical experts, nine adaptation options were identified that ranged from environmental flows, restoring river channel habitat, reoperating infrastructure and controlling invasive species. A Catchment Adaptation Framework was developed and used to assess and compare these adaptation options with each of the CMAs, drawing on interviews with their key stakeholders, to identify the risks, benefits and costs. We found that ecosystem-based adaptation can augment catchment management programs and requires investment in a suite of different but complementary measures to lower risk. Our research found institutional challenges in implementing this approach, including the complexities of multi-agency management, constricting legal requirements, narrow funding arrangements, under-developed institutional capacity, difficulties of implementing catchment-scale programs on private property and the need to adhere to community expectations. These institutional issues are ubiquitous internationally and point to the wider issues of providing sufficient management capacity to support adaptation. The Catchment Adaptation Framework presented here enables river basin managers to systematically assess the adaptation options to better inform their decision-making.     

Recent sediment accumulation rates in contrasting lakes in the Carpathians (Romania): impacts of shifts in socio-economic regime

Longer-term environmental studies are increasingly used to better understand contemporary ecosystems conditions and for forecasting their future trajectories. Here, we use radiometric measurements and the characterisation of sediment properties from six mountain and a lowland lake in Central Eastern Europe with the aim to assess temporal and spatial variability in sediment accumulation rates (SARs) in relation to three socio-economic regimes: traditional (1840–1948), socialist (1948–1989) and post-socialist (post-1990). We also set out to determine reference conditions for these lakes i.e. conditions before significant human impact. Our results show a trend of increasing SARs from basal sediments (pre 1840) towards the present at only two sites. This contrasts with findings from Western and Central European lakes where SARs have predominantly increased from 1850 towards the top of cores. We highlight the differential impacts of the traditional, socialist and post-socialist periods on the SARs at these lakes. Lowland and mid-elevations lakes (n = 2) were most markedly impacted by the socialist period of land use regime; lakes from the southern Carpathians (n = 2) were more impacted in the traditional period (transhumance pastoral activities), whereas those from the north (n = 3) in the socialist and post-socialist periods (summer pastoralism). Results from our study show a continuous anthropogenic impact during the entire period considered, even in remote mountain areas. This suggests that a temporal frame of 100–150 years is too short to meaningfully register the reference conditions of these lakes. Furthermore, a predominantly natural state may not have existed for centuries in this region.     

Climate change,food security,and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to increase the region’s susceptibility and constrain its adaptive capacity. Climate change is commonly recognized as a major issue likely to have negative consequences on food security and livelihoods in the region. This paper reviews three bodies of scholarship that have evolved somewhat separately, yet are inherently interconnected: climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, food security, and sustainable livelihoods. The paper develops a conceptualization of the relationships among the three themes and shows how food security’s vulnerabilities are related to multiple stresses and adaptive capacities, reflecting access to assets. Food security represents one of several livelihood outcomes. The framework shows how several research paradigms relate to the issue of food security and climate change and provides a guide for empirical investigations. Recognizing these interconnections can help in the development of more effective policies and programs. The framework is applied here to synthesize findings from an array of studies in sub-Saharan Africa dealing with vulnerability to climate change, food security, and livelihoods.     

Present and future climate conditions for winegrowing in Spain

This study deals with the question of how winegrowing in Spain may be altered by anthropogenic climate change. The present state and expected future development of three bioclimatic indices relevant for winegrowing were assessed by observation, and four regional climate models from the EU-ENSEMBLES project were investigated. When comparing the 2061–2090 scenario period to the 1961–1990 reference period, the models unanimously indicate a significant increase in the mean of the two considered thermal indices over the entire study region. However, for the index based on temperature and precipitation, the models are heavily biased when verified against observations and generally disagree on the size of the projected future change. For this index, unanimous model agreement was only found for northwestern Spain where all models indicated a significant decrease in the mean. From these results, regional climate change is expected to negatively affect the quality of wine in the growing regions of central and southern Spain, and the Ebro valley, whereas positive effects should be expected in the northwest. No significant changes in the risk of mildew infestation are to be expected except for the northwest, where this risk is projected to decrease.     

Vegetation dynamics and climate change on the Loess Plateau,China: 1982–2011

Monitoring the dynamics of vegetation growth and its response to climate change is important to understand the mechanisms underlying ecosystem behaviors. This study investigated the relationship between vegetation growth and climate change during the growing seasons on the Loess Plateau in China by analyzing the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the Land Long Term Data Record dataset from 1982 to 2011. Results showed that growing-season NDVI had increased at an annual rate of 0.0028, particularly in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions. By contrast, the NDVI first increased from 1982 to 1994 (0.0013 year^?1, P < 0.05) and then decreased from 1994 to 2011 (0.0016 year^?1, P < 0.05) in the arid region. Temperature had a positive effect on NDVI in most periods within and across seasons in the semi-humid region but had no significant effect in the arid region. Precipitation had a positive effect on NDVI in the arid region in summer and in the semi-arid region in autumn. Summer precipitation was important for autumn vegetation growth in the arid region, whereas summer temperature increased autumn vegetation growth in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions. Further analyses supported the lag-time effects of climate change on vegetation growth on the Loess Plateau. Precipitation shifts had 15- to 18-month time lag effects on vegetation growth in the three climate regions. Vegetation NDVI had a 17-month lag response to temperature in the semi-arid region. Human activities should not be neglected in analyzing the relationship between vegetation growth and climate change on the Loess Plateau.     

Power asymmetries and institutions: landscape conservation in central India

Understanding the importance of cross-sectoral implications of climate and socio-economic change in Scotland is essential for adaptation policy. This study explored the direct and indirect sectoral impacts of future change using the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform. There is great spatial diversity in projected impacts across Scotland, and increasing uncertainty in the direction of change of impacts from the national to regional scale associated with climate uncertainty. Further uncertainty associated with socio-economic change results in 6 out of 13 indicators (artificial surfaces, biodiversity vulnerability, forest area, land-use intensity, irrigation usage and land-use diversity) with robust directions of change at the national scale and only three (artificial surfaces, forest area and irrigation usage) that are robust across all regions of Scotland. Complex interactions between socio-economic scenario assumptions (e.g. food imports, population and GDP), climatic suitability and agricultural productivity and profitability lead to significant national and regional changes in the distribution and extent of land cover types, with resultant cross-sectoral interactions with water, forestry and biodiversity. Consequently, stakeholders characterised robust adaptation policy options, within the CLIMSAVE participatory process, as those beneficial to society (and the country) in all scenarios, irrespective of the direction of change of the impacts. The integration in CLIMSAVE of a participatory scenario development process and an integrated participatory modelling framework has allowed the exploration of future uncertainty in a structured approach and better represented the importance of qualitative information and the social and institutional contexts within adaptation research.     

Climate change,multiple stressors and human vulnerability: a systematic review

We systematically reviewed current climate change literature in order to examine how multiple processes that affect human vulnerability have been studied. Of the 125 reviewed articles, 79 % were published after 2009. There are numerous concepts that point out to stressors other than climate change that were used in reviewed studies. These different concepts were used interchangeably, and they illustrate processes that act on different scales. Most widely used concepts included non-climatic (40 % of the articles), multiple stressors (38 %) and other factors (37 %). About 75 % of the studies either acknowledged or carefully analyzed the social and environmental context in which vulnerability is experienced. One-third of the studies recognized climate change-related stressors as the most important, one-third argued that stressors other than climate are more important, and the rest of the studies did not analyze the relative importance of the different processes. Interactions between different stressors were mentioned in 76 % and analyzed explicitly in 28 % of the articles. Our review shows that there are studies that analyze the social context of vulnerability within climate change-related literature and this literature is rapidly expanding. Reviewed studies point out that there are multiple interacting stressors, whose interlinkages need to be carefully analyzed and targeted by policies, which integrate adaptation to climate change and other stressors. In conclusion, we suggest that future studies should include analytical frameworks that reflect dissimilarities between different types of stressors, methodological triangulation to identify key stressors and analysis of interactions between multiple stressors across different scales.     

Larch forests of Middle Siberia: long-term trends in fire return intervals

Fire history within the northern larch forests of Central Siberia was studied (65 + °N). Fires within this area are predominantly caused by lightning strikes rather than human activity. Mean fire return intervals (FRIs) were found to be 112 ± 49 years (based on firescars) and 106 ± 36 years (based on firescars and tree natality dates). FRIs were increased with latitude increase and observed to be about 80 years at 64°N, about 200 years near the Arctic Circle and about 300 years nearby the northern range limit of larch stands (~71° + N). Northward FRIs increase correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = ?0.95). Post-Little Ice Age (LIA) warming (after 1850) caused approximately a doubling of fire events (in comparison with a similar period during LIA). The data obtained support a hypothesis of climate-induced fire frequency increase.