The impact of global change on economic values of water for Public Irrigation Schemes at the São Francisco River Basin in Brazil

Economic values of water for the main Public Irrigation Schemes in the sub-middle region of the São Francisco River Basin, in northeastern Brazil, are determined in this study using an integration of a global agro-economic land and water use (MAgPIE) with a local economic model (Positive Mathematical Programming). As in the latter, the water values depend on the crops grown, and as Brazilian agriculture is strongly influenced by the global market, we used a regionalized version of the global model adapted to the region in order to simulate the crop land use, which is in turn determined by changes in global demand, trade barriers, and climate. The allocation of sugarcane and fruit crops projected with climate change by the global model, showed an impact on the average yields and on the water costs in the main schemes resulting in changes in the water values locally. The economic values for all schemes in the baseline year were higher than the water prices established for agricultural use in the basin. In the future, these water values will be higher in all the schemes. The highest water values currently and in the future were identified in municipalities with a significant proportion of area growing irrigated sugarcane. Being aware of current water values of each user in a baseline year and in a projected future under global climate and socioeconomic changes, decision makers should improve water allocation policies at local scale, in order to avoid conflicts and unsustainable development in the future.     

Freshwater stress on small island developing states: population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2 °C

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here, we apply a recently developed methodology that circumvents the GCM limitation of coarse resolution in order to project future changes in aridity on small islands. These climate projections are combined with independent population projections associated with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially toward the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. For several SIDS, particularly across the Caribbean region, a substantial fraction (~?25%) of the large overall freshwater stress projected under 2 °C at 2030 can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Our findings add to a growing body of literature on the difference in climate impacts between 1.5 and 2 °C and underscore the need for regionally specific analysis.     

Reducing external costs of nitrogen pollution by relocation of pig production between regions in the European Union

This paper tests the hypothesis that relocation of pig production within the EU27 can reduce the external costs of nitrogen (N) pollution. The external cost of pollution by ammonia and nitrate from agriculture in the European Union (EU27) in 2008 was estimated at 61–215 billion € (0.5 to 1.8% of the GDP). Per capita it ranged from more than 1000 € in north-west EU27 to 50 € in Romania. The average contribution of pig production was 15%. Using provincial data (224 NUTS2 regions in EU27), the potential reduction of external N cost by relocation of pig production was estimated at 14 billion € (10% of the total). Regions most eligible for decreasing the pig stock were in western Germany, Flemish region, Denmark, the Netherlands and Bretagne, while Romania is most eligible for increasing pig production. Relocating 20 million pigs (13% of the total EU stock) decreased average external costs per capita from 900 to 785 € in the 13 NUTS2 regions where pigs were removed and increased from 69 to 107 € in 11 regions receiving pigs. A second alternative configuration of pig production was targeted at reducing exceedance of critical N deposition and closing regional nutrient cycles. This configuration relocates pigs within Germany and France, for example from Bretagne to Northern France and from Weser-Ems to Oberbayern. However, total external cost increases due to an increase of health impacts, unless when combined with implementation of best N management practices. Relocation of the pig industry in the EU27 will meet many socio-economic barriers and realisation requires new policy incentives.     

Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a +?1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a >?2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than +?1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the +?1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a +?1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.     

Model-based analysis of urban settlement process in eco-sensitive area of developing country: a study with special reference to hills of an Indian city

Rapid and unplanned expansion of a city into its eco-sensitive areas like hills, wetlands, and forests is becoming a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Understanding the process and causes of such unplanned urban expansion is of paramount importance for framing sustainable urban development policies. This paper presents a modelling concept that relates urban settlement in such eco-sensitive areas with potential socio-economic, demographic and geographical factors. The model is applied to an Indian city Guwahati, which is experiencing serious environmental degradation due to unplanned urban settlement in its eco-sensitive hilly areas. While topographical and settlement data were derived using satellite data in GIS platform, all other necessary data were collected from relevant government organizations. On validation of the multi-linear regression model, the coefficient of determination and the root mean square error are obtained as 0.938 and 1.7, respectively. Model results show that geographical parameters are less influencing as compared to the other socio-economic and demographic factors. Sensitivity analysis of urban settlements in hills of Guwahati city carried out with respect to the considered factors reveals that land value and free space availability in the surrounding area of a hill are the most sensitive parameters. This indicates that city development plans should give more importance to outward spatial expansion in plain areas with regulated land value and zoning scheme to minimize unauthorized settlement in eco-sensitive hilly areas of Guwahati city.     

The personal,social and environmental sustainability of Jainism in light of Maharishi Vedic Science

The Jain tradition of ecological awareness and sustainability has been well documented over the last 25 years, although its roots lie deep in Indian history, specifically in texts such as the Tattvārtha Sūtra and ācārā?ga Sūtra. This traditional body of knowledge includes a long-standing theory and practice of personal, social and environmental sustainability, addressing such views as the interconnectedness of humans and the laws of nature, the interdependence of everything in the universe, the responsibility of humans to conserve and preserve natural resources, the avoidance of wanton and unnecessary waste generation, and a general aversion to mistreating or abusing the environment. These views encapsulate the lifestyles of some ten million people, including both mendicants and laity. Similarly, Maharishi Vedic Science, the systematic exploration and practical application of the Veda and Vedic Literature as taught by Maharishi Mahesh Yogi, makes a compelling case for establishing the unity of human life with nature and for promoting actions which guarantee both the protection of nature and protection by it. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between the principles of sustainability in Jainism and the corresponding viewpoint of Maharishi Vedic Science, including supporting scientific evidence of its application, and to posit their contribution to a sustainable world future.     

Analyzing temporal–spatial characteristics of drought events in the northern part of Cyprus

Drought in the northern part of Cyprus has become a recurrent phenomenon. In the last few decades, Cyprus has experienced significantly severe drought events occurring periodically, and this trend is now continuing. With rainfall distribution varying considerably across the region and frequent drought conditions, the water resources, agriculture, economy and the environment have been adversely affected. This study aims to investigate spatial–temporal characteristic of drought using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at multiple timescales (3, 6 and 12 months). Monthly time series of 36 years (1977–2013) rainfall data from nine weather stations are used to derive SPI values. Based on different drought categories, this study focuses on propagation of drought from one timescale to another and estimating critical rainfall values during moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions. The analysis revealed that there is a strong correlation among different timescales in detecting drought events. On average, 79 and 78% of 3-month timescale drought propagated into 6- and 12-month drought events, respectively, while 90% of 6-month timescale drought events propagated into 12-month drought events. The derived critical rainfall value for extreme droughts over a 12-month timescale was less than 255 mm/year in the town of Alsancak, while for Guzelyurt, a major citrus growing city, this figure was less than 135 mm/year. The results are validated through drought events detected at various regions of the Mediterranean basin and local flood occurrences during the wet periods and decline in water tables at drought seasons.     

An economic-environmental analysis of selected barrier-coating materials used in packaging food products: a Swedish case study

The purpose of a barrier coating in food packaging is primarily to increase the shelf life of the foodstuff contained within the packaging, preserve its colour, odour, taste and quality, and thereby reduce food wastage (both at retail outlets and households). While most publications hitherto have compared packaging and barrier-coating materials on the basis of their environmental impacts alone, this paper adopts a more holistic approach by factoring in the economic aspect as well. Four barrier material alternatives—starch, polyethylene, EVOH + kaolin and latex + kaolin are analysed. Two well-defined end-of-life handling scenarios, relevant to Sweden, are: one in which everything except starch is recycled, with starch being composted, and the other in which everything is incinerated. Among the several environmental impact categories which can be analysed, this paper considers only global warming. Two approaches are tested to combine the economic and environmental aspects—normalisation, weighting and aggregating on the one hand, and using the carbon tax to internalise the externality caused by GHG emissions on the other. For the set of weighting factors obtained thanks to a survey conducted by the authors (40.6% for environmental and 59.4% for economic), starch emerges as the most sustainable alternative, followed by polyethylene for both the end-of-life handling scenarios. This tallies with the result obtained by using the carbon tax for internalisation of the externality. The case study, methodology and results presented in this paper, will hopefully be a springboard for more detailed studies of this nature, under the umbrella of sustainability.     

Detection of potential harmful algal bloom-causing microalgae from freshwater prawn farms in Central Luzon,Philippines, for bloom monitoring and prediction

Prawn aquaculture industry is one of the developing economic activities in the Philippines. Generally, a wide range of microalgae typically grow and proliferate in many aquaculture ponds. However, certain species of microalgae have the ability to form harmful algal blooms (HABs) which often bring damaging consequences to the aquaculture industry, food safety, and the environment. The study aims to identify and characterize the composition of microalgae (particularly Cyanophyta) that are capable of forming HABs in selected freshwater prawn culture ponds in Central Luzon, Philippines, using morphological, ultrastructural, and molecular characterizations. From water samples collected in ten selected ponds across Central Luzon (Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, and Zambales), potential HAB formers such as Oscillatoria agardhii, O. princeps, Microcystis aeruginosa, and M. wesenbergii were observed to have occurred mostly, while Anabaena circinalis was only observed in one site. Both morphological and ultrastructural methods brought upon some challenges and limitations while molecular methods using 16S rRNA gene and phylogenetic analysis which were optimized in this study offered better and more efficient ways of identification and were helpful in resolving genus-level and species-level relationships. The influence of physicochemical properties of pond water, especially nutrient levels (nitrate, nitrite, and orthophosphate) on the occurrence of these cyanobacteria was also analyzed. As a pioneering study on freshwater HABs in aquaculture ponds in the country, results of the study can provide information to improve the knowledge in bloom occurrence and prediction, and to develop freshwater HAB prevention and control methods.