Effects of Instrument Precision and Spatial Variability on the Assessment of the Temporal Variation of Ambient Air Pollution in Atlanta,Georgia

Abstract

Data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Air Quality System, the Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization database, and the Assessment of Spatial Aerosol Composition in Atlanta database for 1999 through 2002 have been used to characterize error associated with instrument precision and spatial variability on the assessment of the temporal variation of ambient air pollution in Atlanta, GA. These data are being used in time series epidemiologic studies in which associations of acute respiratory and cardiovascular health outcomes and daily ambient air pollutant levels are assessed. Modified semivariograms are used to quantify the effects of instrument precision and spatial variability on the assessment of daily metrics of ambient gaseous pollutants (SO₂, CO, NO_x, and O₃) and fine particulate matter ([PM_2.5] PM_2.5 mass, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, elemental carbon [EC], and organic carbon [OC]). Variation because of instrument imprecision represented 7–40% of the temporal variation in the daily pollutant measures and was largest for the PM_2.5 EC and OC. Spatial variability was greatest for primary pollutants (SO₂, CO, NO_x, and EC). Population–weighted variation in daily ambient air pollutant levels because of both instrument imprecision and spatial variability ranged from 20% of the temporal variation for O₃ to 70% of the temporal variation for SO₂ and EC. Wind rose plots, corrected for diurnal and seasonal pattern effects, are used to demonstrate the impacts of local sources on monitoring station data. The results presented are being used to quantify the impacts of instrument precision and spatial variability on the assessment of health effects of ambient air pollution in Atlanta and are relevant to the interpretation of results from time series health studies that use data from fixed monitors.     

Modeling the stream water nitrate dynamics in a 60,000-km2 European catchment, the Garonne, southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO(3)-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byr?ns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed under the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO(3)-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distributed catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO(3)-N patterns at large spatial (>300 km(2)) and temporal (> or = monthly) scales using available national datasets.     

Relationships between pesticides and organic carbon fractions in sediments of the Danshui River estuary and adjacent coastal areas of Taiwan

In order to understand the fate of pesticides in marine environments, concentrations of pesticides and different carbonaceous fractions were determined for surface sediments in the Danshui River and nearby coastal areas of Taiwan. The major compounds detected were tetrachlorobenzene, HCHs, chlordane, aldrin, DDDs, DDEs and DDTs. Total concentrations of pesticides in the sediments ranged from not detectable to 23 ng g(-1), with the maximum value detected near the discharge point of the marine outfall from the Pali sewage treatment plant. These results confirm that pesticides persist in estuarine and nearby coastal environments of the Danshui River well after their ban. Concentrations of total pesticides significantly correlate with concentrations of total organic carbon and black carbon in these sediments, suggesting that total organic carbon and black carbon regulate the distribution of trace organic pollutants in fluvial and coastal marine sediments.     

Using fisher-contributed secondary fins to fill critical shark-fisheries data gaps

Developing-world shark fisheries are typically not assessed or actively managed for sustainability; one fundamental obstacle is the lack of species and size-composition catch data. We tested and implemented a new and potentially widely applicable approach for collecting these data: mandatory submission of low-value secondary fins (anal fins) from landed sharks by fishers and use of the fins to reconstruct catch species and size. Visual and low-cost genetic identification were used to determine species composition, and linear regression was applied to total length and anal fin base length for catch-size reconstruction. We tested the feasibility of this approach in Belize, first in a local proof-of-concept study and then scaling it up to the national level for the 2017–2018 shark-fishing season (1,786 fins analyzed). Sixteen species occurred in this fishery. The most common were the Caribbean reef (Carcharhinus perezi), blacktip (C. limbatus), sharpnose (Atlantic [Rhizoprionodon terraenovae] and Caribbean [R. porosus] considered as a group), and bonnethead (Sphyrna cf. tiburo). Sharpnose and bonnethead sharks were landed primarily above size at maturity, whereas Caribbean reef and blacktip sharks were primarily landed below size at maturity. Our approach proved effective in obtaining critical data for managing the shark fishery, and we suggest the tools developed as part of this program could be exported to other nations in this region and applied almost immediately if there were means to communicate with fishers and incentivize them to provide anal fins. Outside the tropical Western Atlantic, we recommend further investigation of the feasibility of sampling of secondary fins, including considerations of time, effort, and cost of species identification from these fins, what secondary fin type to use, and the means with which to communicate with fishers and incentivize participation. This program could be a model for collecting urgently needed data for developing-world shark fisheries globally. Article impact statement: Shark fins collected from fishers yield data critical to shark fisheries management in developing nations.     

Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species’ climate‐change vulnerability

Climate‐change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species’ vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. We took a more comprehensive approach that incorporates exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to adapt to climate change. We applied our approach to anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and nonanadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), threatened salmonids within the Columbia River Basin (U.S.A.). We quantified exposure on the basis of scenarios of future stream temperature and flow, and we represented sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change with metrics of habitat quality, demographic condition, and genetic diversity. Both species were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change at low elevations and in their southernmost habitats. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the 2 species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multispecies conservation. Based on our results, we suggest that CCVAs be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework and be used to refine hypotheses, guide research, and compare plausible scenarios of species’ vulnerability to climate change.     

The timing of calling,movement, and mating in the field crickets Gryllus veletis,G. pennsylvanicus,and G. integer

Summary The temporal relationships between mating, calling, and movement were studied in natural habitats at different densities in the field crickets, Gryllus veletis, G. pennsylvanicus and G. integer. There was variation between and within species, but males generally showed increased calling at dawn followed by a decline during the day. Matings were also more frequent at sunrise in most observations, and male and female movement declined near dawn. Female movement and sexual receptivity are closely related to levels of male calling and movement.     

Uptake and depuration of toxic halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons by the American oyster (Crassostrea virginica): a field study

Uptake and depuration of toxic chlorinated compounds such as planar polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs 77, 126, 169), 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzofuran (TCDF) were monitored during a 50-day field study where American oysters (Crassostrea virginica) were transplanted back and forth between a heavily polluted area (Houston Ship Channel, SC) and a relatively unimpacted area (Hanna's Reef, HR) within Galveston Bay, TX. In general, low molecular weight, less lipophilic compounds accumulated in the oysters to a larger extent than high molecular weight ones. Estimated half-lives for planar PCB congeners 77 and 126 were 28 and 51 days, respectively for depuration of newly contaminated oysters (HR-SC-HR) while longer half-lives (42 and 60 days, respectively) were observed for the same compounds as they were eliminated from chronically contaminated individuals (SC-HR). Estimated half-lives for 2,3,7,8-TCDD and 2,3,7,8-TCDF were 35 and 36 days, respectively and were similar to the tetrachlorinated biphenyls (PCBs 77 and 81). Compared with ortho-substituted PCB congeners of the same chlorination level, the more toxic PCBs take longer to depurate from the oysters. With few exceptions, elimination of all toxic compounds investigated proceeded at a slower rate from the chronically exposed population that from the newly contaminated one.     

THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURAL GROUNDWATER CONSERVATION IN ACHIEVING ZERO OVERDRAFT IN ARIZONA1

ABSTRACT: The elimination of groundwater overdraft was a key feature of the 1980 Arizona Groundwater Management Act. To achieve this goal, the Arizona Department of Water Resources identified several Active Management Areas and developed urban, industrial, and agricultural water conservation plans. This study examines the reductions in groundwater use through agricultural water conservation in the Phoenix Active Management Area (AMA). Linear programming models are developed to analyze changes in groundwater use and net returns to agriculture over a 38-year period, 1990 to 2025, for farming areas in the Phoenix AMA. Results indicate that the agricultural conservation program provides only modest groundwater savings under a wide range of scenarios. The low level of savings is partly due to the current economically efficient use of water. Other policy measures such as retiring agricultural land may be necessary if the Phoenix AMA is to meet its overdraft reduction goals; even if urban water conservation goals are met.     

Bayesian Methods in Conservation Biology

Abstract: Bayesian statistical inference provides an alternate way to analyze data that is likely to be more appropriate to conservation biology problems than traditional statistical methods. I contrast Bayesian techniques with traditional hypothesis-testing techniques using examples applicable to conservation. I use a trend analysis of two hypothetical populations to illustrate how easy it is to understand Bayesian results, which are given in terms of probability. Bayesian trend analysis indicated that the two populations had very different chances of declining at biologically important rates. For example, the probability that the first population was declining faster than 5% per year was 0.00, compared to a probability of 0.86 for the second population. The Bayesian results appropriately identified which population was of greater conservation concern. The Bayesian results contrast with those obtained with traditional hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing indicated that the first population, which the Bayesian analysis indicated had no chance of declining at > 5% per year, was declining significantly because it was declining at a slow rate and the abundance estimates were precise. Despite the high probability that the second population was experiencing a serious decline, hypothesis testing failed to reject the null hypothesis of no decline because the abundance estimates were imprecise. Finally, I extended the trend analysis to illustrate Bayesian decision theory, which allows for choice between more than two decisions and allows explicit specification of the consequences of various errors. The Bayesian results again differed from the traditional results: the decision analysis led to the conclusion that the first population was declining slowly and the second population was declining rapidly.     

Evaluating Change in Rangeland Condition using Multitemporal AVHRR Data and Geographic Information System Analysis

Coarse-scale, multitemporal satellite image data were evaluated as a tool for detecting variation in vegetation productivity, as a potential indicator of change in rangeland condition in the western U.S. The conterminous U.S. Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) biweekly composite data set was employed using the six-year time series 1989–1994. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) image bands for the state of New Mexico were imported into a Geographic Information System (GIS) for analysis with other spatial data sets. Averaged NDVI was calculated for each year, and a series of regression analyses were performed using one year as the baseline. Residuals from the regression line indicated 14 significant areas of NDVI change: two with lower NDVI, and 11 with higher NDVI. Rangeland management changes, cross-country military training activities, and increases in irrigated cropland were among the identified causes of change.