Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species’ climate‐change vulnerability

Climate‐change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species’ vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. We took a more comprehensive approach that incorporates exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to adapt to climate change. We applied our approach to anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and nonanadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), threatened salmonids within the Columbia River Basin (U.S.A.). We quantified exposure on the basis of scenarios of future stream temperature and flow, and we represented sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change with metrics of habitat quality, demographic condition, and genetic diversity. Both species were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change at low elevations and in their southernmost habitats. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the 2 species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multispecies conservation. Based on our results, we suggest that CCVAs be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework and be used to refine hypotheses, guide research, and compare plausible scenarios of species’ vulnerability to climate change.     

Biomechanics of Pediatric Cervical Spine: Compression,Flexion and Extension Responses

The objective of the present study was to develop three separate age-specific one, three, and six year old pediatric human cervical spine (C4-CS-C6) three-dimensional nonlinear finite element models and to quantify the biomechanical responses. The adult model was modified to create one, three, and six year old pediatric spines by incorporating the local geometrical and material characteristics of the developmental anatomy. The adult human cervical spine model was constructed from close-up computed tomography sections and sequential anatomic cryomicrotome sections, and validated with experimental data. The biomechanical responses were compared with the adult human cervical spine behavior under different loading modes using three approaches. Approach 1: using pure overall structural scaling (reduce size) of the adult model. Approach 2: using three separate age-specific pediatric models incorporating local component geometrical and material property changes. Approach 3: applying the overall structural scaling to the above three pediatric models. All pediatric structures were consistently more flexible than the adult spine under all loading modes. However, responses obtained using the pure overall structural scaling (Approach 1) increased the flexibilities slightly. In contrast, the inclusion of local component geometrical and material property changes to create the three individual pediatric cervical spine models (Approach 2) produced significantly higher changes in the flexibilities under all loading modes. When overall structural scaling effects were added to the three pediatric models (Approach 3), the increase was not considerably higher. White the one year old pediatric model was the most flexible followed by the three and six year old models in flexion and extension, the three year old pediatric model was the most flexible under compression followed by the six and one year old models. The differing biomechanical responses among different pediatric groups were ascribed to the individual developmental anatomical features. The present findings of significant increase in biomechanical response due to local geometry and material property changes emphasize the need to consider the developmental anatomical features in the pediatric structures to better predict their biomechanical behavior.     

Bayesian Methods in Conservation Biology

Abstract: Bayesian statistical inference provides an alternate way to analyze data that is likely to be more appropriate to conservation biology problems than traditional statistical methods. I contrast Bayesian techniques with traditional hypothesis-testing techniques using examples applicable to conservation. I use a trend analysis of two hypothetical populations to illustrate how easy it is to understand Bayesian results, which are given in terms of probability. Bayesian trend analysis indicated that the two populations had very different chances of declining at biologically important rates. For example, the probability that the first population was declining faster than 5% per year was 0.00, compared to a probability of 0.86 for the second population. The Bayesian results appropriately identified which population was of greater conservation concern. The Bayesian results contrast with those obtained with traditional hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing indicated that the first population, which the Bayesian analysis indicated had no chance of declining at > 5% per year, was declining significantly because it was declining at a slow rate and the abundance estimates were precise. Despite the high probability that the second population was experiencing a serious decline, hypothesis testing failed to reject the null hypothesis of no decline because the abundance estimates were imprecise. Finally, I extended the trend analysis to illustrate Bayesian decision theory, which allows for choice between more than two decisions and allows explicit specification of the consequences of various errors. The Bayesian results again differed from the traditional results: the decision analysis led to the conclusion that the first population was declining slowly and the second population was declining rapidly.     

Genetic caste determination in harvester ants: possible origin and maintenance by cyto-nuclear epistasis

While reproductive caste in eusocial insects is usually determined by environmental factors, in some populations of the harvester ants, Pogonomyrmex barbatus and P. rugosus, caste has been shown to have a strong genetic component. This system of genetic caste determination (GCD) is characterized by between-caste nuclear variation and high levels of mitochondrial haplotype variation between alternative maternal lineages. Two previous genetic models, involving a single nuclear caste-determining locus or interactions between two nuclear loci, respectively, have been proposed to explain the GCD system. We propose a new model based on interactions between nuclear and mitochondrial genes that can better explain the co-maintenance of distinct nuclear and mitochondrial lineages. In our model, females with coevolved cyto-nuclear gene complexes, derived from intra-lineage mating, develop into gynes, while females with disrupted cyto-nuclear complexes, derived from inter-lineage mating, develop into workers. Both haplodiploidy and inbreeding facilitate the buildup of such coevolved cyto-nuclear complexes within lineages. In addition, the opportunity for both intra-lineage and inter-lineage mating in polyandrous populations facilitates the accumulation of gyne-biasing genes. This model may also help to explain the evolution of workerless social, parasites. We discuss similarities of GCD and cytoplasmic male sterility in plants and how worker production of males would affect the stability of GCD. Finally, we propose experiments and observations that might help resolve the origin and maintenance of this unusual system of caste determination.     

Continuing atmospheric studies of chlorinated dibenzofurans and dioxins in New York State

CDFs and CDDs were detected in Niagara Falls air samples with total concentrations ranging from 0.07 to 53 pg/m³. The highest concentrations were found on days when the wind direction was from a nearby point source. Average CDF/CDD background concentrations were calculated.     

Butyltin concentrations in oysters from the Gulf of Mexico from 1989 to 1991

Oyster samples from 53 Gulf of Mexico coastal sites were collected and analyzed for butyltins during 1989, 1990, and 1991. The geometric-mean tributylin concentrations were 85, 30, and 43 ng Sn/g for 1989, 1990, and 1991, respectively. The tributyltin concentrations are best represented by a log-normal distribution. A decline in the butyltin concentrations at sites with relatively low butyltin concentrations for 1989 compared with 1990 and 1991 was observed, and, at relatively high butyltin concentrations (> 400 ng Sn/g), there was hardly any difference between 1989 and 1991, but lower concentrations were present in 1990. Continued monitoring is needed in order to determine if butyltin contamination of the coastal marine environment is decreasing in response to use limitations.     

Desertification Evaluated Using an Integrated Environmental Assessment Model

Desertification has been defined as land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities (United Nations, 1992). A technique for identifying and assessing areas at risk fordesertification in the arid, semi-arid, and subhumid regionsof the United States was developed by the Desert Research Institute and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), using selected environmental indicators integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS). Five indicators were selected: potential erosion, grazing pressure, climatic stress (expressed as a function of changesin the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]), change invegetation greenness (derived from the Normalized DifferenceVegetation Index [NDVI]), and weedy invasives as a percentof total plant cover. The data were integrated over aregional geographic setting using a GIS, which facilitateddata display, development and exploration of data relationships, including manipulation and simulation testing. By combining all five data layers, landscapes having a varying risk for land degradation were identified, providing a tool which could be used to improve landmanagement efficiency.     

The timing of calling,movement, and mating in the field crickets Gryllus veletis,G. pennsylvanicus,and G. integer

Summary The temporal relationships between mating, calling, and movement were studied in natural habitats at different densities in the field crickets, Gryllus veletis, G. pennsylvanicus and G. integer. There was variation between and within species, but males generally showed increased calling at dawn followed by a decline during the day. Matings were also more frequent at sunrise in most observations, and male and female movement declined near dawn. Female movement and sexual receptivity are closely related to levels of male calling and movement.     

Uptake and depuration of toxic halogenated aromatic hydrocarbons by the American oyster (Crassostrea virginica): a field study

Uptake and depuration of toxic chlorinated compounds such as planar polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs 77, 126, 169), 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzofuran (TCDF) were monitored during a 50-day field study where American oysters (Crassostrea virginica) were transplanted back and forth between a heavily polluted area (Houston Ship Channel, SC) and a relatively unimpacted area (Hanna's Reef, HR) within Galveston Bay, TX. In general, low molecular weight, less lipophilic compounds accumulated in the oysters to a larger extent than high molecular weight ones. Estimated half-lives for planar PCB congeners 77 and 126 were 28 and 51 days, respectively for depuration of newly contaminated oysters (HR-SC-HR) while longer half-lives (42 and 60 days, respectively) were observed for the same compounds as they were eliminated from chronically contaminated individuals (SC-HR). Estimated half-lives for 2,3,7,8-TCDD and 2,3,7,8-TCDF were 35 and 36 days, respectively and were similar to the tetrachlorinated biphenyls (PCBs 77 and 81). Compared with ortho-substituted PCB congeners of the same chlorination level, the more toxic PCBs take longer to depurate from the oysters. With few exceptions, elimination of all toxic compounds investigated proceeded at a slower rate from the chronically exposed population that from the newly contaminated one.