An evaluation of global QSAR models for the prediction of the toxicity of phenols to Tetrahymena pyriformis

This study presents an analysis of the ability of a two-parameter response surface, a multiple linear regression and a neural network model to produce global quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) to predict the toxic potency of phenols to Tetrahymena pyriformis. The phenolic toxicity data set analysed is characterised by multiple mechanisms of toxic action. The study aimed to evaluate the confidence that can be applied to the modelling of the differing mechanisms of action. Assessment of confidence was decided in terms of whether the statistics for the global models reflect the ability of the QSARs to model the individual mechanisms of toxic action present in the data set. The results showed that the global statistics only reflected the ability of models to predict the two non-covalent mechanisms (polar narcosis and respiratory uncoupling), with the metabolically transformed and electrophilic mechanism (pre-electrophiles and soft electrophiles) being modelled poorly by all three model building methods. The results confirm the difficulty in modelling electrophilic mechanisms of toxic action. The results also highlight the fact that this poor predictivity is often 'hidden' in good statistical fit of some global models. In particular these results emphasise that for practical predictive purposes the mechanistic applicability domain is required to give confidence to estimated toxicity values.     

Corruption in emergency procurement

Corruption in emergency procurement reduces the resources available for life‐saving operations, lowers the quality of products and services provided, and diverts aid from those who need it most. ¹ 1 The paper is based on a study for a project of the Chr Michelsen Institute (CMI)'s U4 Anti‐Corruption Resource Centre entitled ‘Corruption in Emergencies’ (see http://www.u4.no ).
It also negatively influences public support for humanitarian relief, both in the affected country and abroad. This paper aims to unpack and analyse the following question in order to mitigate risk: how and where does corruption typically occur, and what can be done? Suggested strategies reflect a multi‐layered approach that stresses internal agency control mechanisms, conflict‐sensitive management, and the need for common systems among operators.     

Experimental Study of the Criteria of Flow Laminarization in Two-Dimensional Dense Gas Plumes

Laminarization of flow in a two-dimensional dense gas plume was experimentally investigated in this study. The plume was created by releasing CO₂ through a ground-level line source into a simulated turbulent boundary layer over an aerodynamically rough surface in a meteorological wind tunnel. The bulk Richardson number (Ri_*), based on negative plume buoyancy, plume thickness, and friction velocity, was varied over a wide range so that the effects of stable stratification on plume laminarization could be observed. A variety of ambient wind speeds as well as three different sizes of roughness arrays were used so that possible effects of roughness Reynolds number (Re_*) on plume laminarization could also be identified. Both flow visualization methods and quantitative measurements of velocity and intermittency of turbulence were used to provide quantitative assessments of plume laminarization.Flow visualization provided an overall picture of how the plume was affected by the negative buoyancy. With increasing Ri_*, both the plume depth and the vertical mixing were significantly suppressed, while upstream propagation of the plume from the source was enhanced. The most important feature of the flow revealed by visualization was the laminarization of flow in the lower part of the plume, which appeared to be closely related to both Ri_* and Re_*.Measurements within the simulated dense gas plumes revealed the influence of the stable stratification on mean velocity and turbulence intensity profiles. Both the mean velocity and turbulence intensity were significantly reduced near the surface; and these reductions systematically depended on Ri_*. The roughness Reynolds number also had considerable influence on the mean flow and turbulence structure of the dense gas plumes.An intermittency analysis technique was developed and applied to the digitized instantaneous velocity signals. It not only confirmed the general flow picture within the dense plume indicated by the flow visualization, but also clearly demonstrated the changes of flow regime with variations in Ri_* and Re_*. Most importantly, based on this intermittency analysis, simple criteria for characterizing different flow regimes are formulated; these may be useful in predicting when plume laminarization might occur.     

Three-Dimensional Modelling of Concentration Fluctuations in Complicated Geometry

The strong fluctuating component in the measured concentration time series of a dispersing gaseous pollutant in the atmospheric boundary layer, and the hazard level associated to short-term concentration levels, demonstrate the necessity of calculating the magnitude of turbulent fluctuations of concentration using computational simulation models. Moreover the computation of concentration fluctuations in cases of dispersion in realistic situations, such as built-up areas or street canyons, is of special practical interest for hazard assessment purposes. In this paper, the formulation and evaluation of a model for concentration fluctuations, based on a transport equation, are presented. The model is applicable in cases of complex geometry. It is included in the framework of a computational code, developed for simulating the dispersion of buoyant pollutants over complex geometries. The experimental data used for the model evaluation concerned the dispersion of a passive gas in a street canyon between 4 identical rectangular buildings performed in a wind tunnel. The experimental concentration fluctuations data have been derived from measured high frequency concentrations. The concentration fluctuations model is evaluated by comparing the model's predictions with the observations in the form of scatter plots, quantile-quantile plots, contour plots and statistical indices as the fractional bias, the geometrical mean variance and the factor-of-two percentage. From the above comparisons it is concluded that the overall model performance in the present complex geometry case is satisfactory. The discrepancies between model predictions and observations are attributed to inaccuracies in prescribing the actual wind tunnel boundary conditions to the computational code.     

Identifying the largest individual sample value from a two-way composite sampling design

Composite sampling techniques for identifying the largest individual sample value seem to be cost effective when the composite samples are internally homogeneous. However, since it is not always possible to form homogeneous composite samples, these methods can lead to higher costs than expected. In this paper we propose a two-way composite sampling design as a way to improve on the cost effectiveness of the methods available to identify the largest individual sample value.     

南部非洲的一体化电力计划

本文概括了12个南部非洲国家电力联营的一体化电力计划(IEP)过程,阐述了使用IEP的长期计划,本文同时也着重讨论了关于未来生产量的决策过程,提出了有利于在南非采纳更清洁技术的角色和措施.     

城市及其遗产：保存的根源和条件

城市遗产的保存和利用将都市管理的负责人置于艰难选择的境地.下面的文字对城市的构成进行了简短的历史回顾,得出了在场所利用及其保存之间保持平衡发展条件.     

Unprecedented bleaching-induced mortality in Porites spp. at Rangiroa Atoll, French Polynesia

In April-May 1998, mass coral bleaching was observed in the lagoon of Rangiroa Atoll, Tuamotu Archipelago, French Polynesia. Six months later, the extent of bleaching-induced coral mortality was assessed at three sites. Corals in the fast-growing genus Pocillopora had experienced >99% mortality. Many large colonies of the slow-growing genus Porites (mean horizontal cross-sectional area 5.8 m²) had also died - a phenomenon not previously observed in French Polynesia and virtually unprecedented world-wide. At one site, 25% of colonies, or 44% of the pre-bleaching cover of living Porites, experienced whole-colony mortality. At the two other sites, recently dead Porites accounted for 41% and 82% of the pre-bleaching live cover. Mortality in Porites was negatively correlated with depth between 1.5 and 5 m. Using a 50-year dataset of mean monthly sea surface temperature (SST), derived from ship- and satellite-borne instruments, we show that bleaching occurred during a period of exceptionally high summer SST. 1998 was the first year in which mean monthly SSTs exceeded the 1961-1990 upper 95% confidence limit (29.4°C) for a period of three consecutive months. We suggest that the sustained 3-month anomaly in local summer SST was a major cause of coral mortality, but do not discount the synergistic effect of solar radiation. Recovery of the size-frequency distribution of Porites colonies to pre-bleaching levels may take at least 100 years.     

Elevated levels of nitrogen and phosphorus reduce fertilisation success of gametes from scleractinian reef corals

Spawned gametes were collected from colonies of Acropora longicyathus at One Tree Island and Goniastrea aspera at Magnetic Island, Great Barrier Reef, Australia, for use in fertilisation trials. Mean fertilisation rates were significantly reduced compared with controls (P<0.003), when gametes from the branching coral A. longicyathus were exposed to elevated ammonium concentrations at 1 µM and above in one cross (60-64% reduction), and at 100 µM in another cross (16% reduction). Mean fertilisation success of A. longicyathus gametes was also significantly reduced compared with controls in both crosses (P=0.000) at concentrations of 1 µM phosphate and above (35-75% reduction), and at 1 µM ammonium plus 1 µM phosphate and all higher concentrations (68-74% reduction). Similarly, the mean percentage of regular embryos that were developing normally was significantly reduced in most nutrient treatments compared with controls (P=0.000). Fertilisation trials using gametes from the brain coral G. aspera resulted in a significantly lower percentage of regular embryos (P=0.001) and a significantly higher percentage of deformed embryos (P=0.001) developing after exposure to elevated nutrient treatments compared with controls. Mean fertilisation rates for this species were only significantly reduced (P=0.034) in the 50 µM ammonium plus phosphate treatment in one cross (8% reduction), compared with the control. Therefore, ammonium and phosphate enrichment significantly impairs fertilisation success and embryo development in scleractinian reef corals.     

Life on glass houses: sponge stalk communities in the deep sea

Photographs of the deep-sea floor often show organisms attached to biogenic structures that protrude from the soft bottom. In particular, the stalks of glass sponges (hexactinellids) provide hard substrata and act as habitat islands for deep-sea fauna. The primary objectives of this study were to determine the abundance of glass sponge “stalks” at an abyssal station in the NE Pacific, to identify the fauna associated with stalks, and to compare the distribution patterns of epifaunal taxa both horizontally and vertically. Densities of stalks and large epifauna were estimated from analysis of ∼9 km of photographic transects taken in 1994–1995 at station M (34°45′N; 123°00′W; 4,100 m depth) off California, USA. At least 87% of the stalks were the spicule columns of live or dead hexactinellids in the genus Hyalonema (Gray, 1832). Stalks appeared to be distributed randomly across the sea floor (density: 0.13 stalks m⁻²). A colonial zoanthid, Epizoanthus stellaris (Hertwig, 1888), inhabited 20% of the stalks and was the most commonly observed epifaunal organism, followed by other suspension feeders that generally were situated at the top of the structures. Thirty-five stalk communities were collected in tube cores in 1994–1995 using the submersible “Alvin”. A total of 139 taxa was associated with these hard-substratum habitats (another five species were observed only in photographs). Although taxon richness was high, the species diversity of these communities was relatively low due to the dominance in percentage abundance of a foraminiferan, Cibicides lobatulus (Walker and Jakob, 1798), and a serpulid polychaete, Bathyvermilia sp. (Zibrowius, 1973). The relationship between number of taxa and surface area of the stalks yielded a slope (z-value) typical of islands with a low rate of immigration. Three-dimensional complexity created by branching epifauna on the stalks provided more surface area and a variety of cryptic microhabitats. Vertical zonation on the stalks appeared to be controlled by biological interactions among species, with solitary fauna and certain functional groups of colonial organisms restricted by sheet-like colonial organisms that appeared to be dominant space competitors. Received: 13 April 2000 / Accepted: 9 November 2000