Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.     

Performance of Firefighters’ Protective Clothing After Heat Exposure

Heat and mechanical protection properties of 6 fabric combinations commonly used in firefighters’ protective clothing were assessed before and after different heat treatment. It was shown that after heat exposure, the values obtained were generally lower than in the original state. The mechanical properties of the materials were more affected by heat than by heat protective properties. In 2 cases, degradation started before a visible change in the material could be observed, which might be potentially dangerous for the end user who will not realize the alteration of the material.     

Biological treatment of dye wastewaters using an anaerobic-oxic system

Three dye solutions, namely, C.I. Acid Yellow 17, C.I. Basic Blue 3, and C.I. Basic Red 2, were treated in an upflow anaerobic sludge blanket (UASB) reactor followed by a semi-continuous aerobic activated sludge tank. When hydraulic retention time was about 12 hours, no significant color removal was observed in the aerobic stage. In the anaerobic stage, Acid Yellow 17, Basic Blue 3, and Basic Red 2 were removed by 20%, 72%, and 78%, respectively. To treat wastewater from a dye manufacturing factory with COD concentration of 1200 mg/l and Color of 500 degree (dilution factor), an UASB reactor (4.5 liters) and an activated sludge tank (5 liters, adjustable), COD and color were removed by more than 83% and 90% at a COD loading rate of 5.3 kg COD/m³-day in the anaerobic stage, and at the hydraulic retention time of 6-10 hours for the anaerobic stage and 6.5 for the aerobic stage. The anaerobic stage of the A/O system removes both color and COD. In addition, it also improves biodegradability of dyes for further aerobic treatment.     

The Rhine red,the fish dead—the 1986 Schweizerhalle disaster,a retrospect and long-term impact assessment

Background

The November 1, 1986 fire at a Sandoz Ltd. storehouse at Schweizerhalle, an industrial area near Basel, Switzerland, resulted in chemical contamination of the environment. The storehouse, which was completely destroyed by the fire, contained pesticides, solvents, dyes, and various raw and intermediate materials. The majority of the approximately 1,250 t of stored chemicals was destroyed in the fire, but large quantities were introduced into the atmosphere, into the Rhine River through runoff of the fire-fighting water, and into the soil and groundwater at the site. The chemicals discharged into the Rhine caused massive kills of benthic organisms and fish, particularly eels and salmonids. Public and private reaction to the fire and subsequent chemical spill was very strong. This happened only a few months after the Chernobyl accident and it destroyed the myth of immunity of Switzerland regarding such catastrophes.

Aim

This article reviews the damaging events of November 1986 and aims at striking stock two decades later.

Results and discussion

In the aftermath of this once-per-century accident, the aim was to obtain new knowledge for the environmental sciences and to achieve progress for water pollution control issues. The following themes are discussed: mitigation measures by the chemical industry and by the governmental authorities, activities of environmental protection organizations, chemical and biological monitoring, alert organization, ecological damages, ecotoxicological effects assessment, recovery and alteration of the river biology, return of the salmon, drinking water supplies, research programs, education of environmental scientists, and visions for the future.

Conclusions

The catastrophic pollution of the Rhine in November 1986 has triggered by the openly visible damages of the river biology that subsequently significant progress was made towards the prevention of such environmental catastrophes. The crucial risk reduction measures in the chemical industry, legal regulations and controls as well as chemical and biological monitoring of the river water quality were substantially improved. Politics and chemical industry have learned their lectures and have proceeded accordingly.

Recommendations

A drastic acute contamination, as it has happened at Schweizerhalle in 1986, is clearly recognizable by the toxic effects, which it is causing. This can lead to mitigation activities, which are positive considering a long-term perspective. However, the less obvious effects of chronic water pollution should receive more attention as well as the ongoing alteration of the biocenosis. A high water quality must be demanded for using water from the Rhine to produce drinking water. In that context, micropollutants should also be considered and particular attention should be payed to emerging contaminants.

Perspectives

The big chemical storehouse fire of 1986 had an important impact on the transboundary cooperation and has improved the willingness for international cooperation. The fire catastrophe of Schweizerhalle has triggered many activities in particular for the Rhine River. Overall, the effects are positive on the basis of a long-term perspective. The applied whole basin approach gives an example on a global basis for other river systems, which still are more heavily polluted.

     

Kriterien für eine ökologisch nachhaltige Stoff-und Gentechnikpolitik

Based on the precautionary principles and the functional model of the environment, the meaning of the criterion of sustainability is explained and applied on organic chemicals and genetically modified organisms (GMOs). It is shown that the criterion permits the sustainability of an operationalization of the precautionary principle as interpreted strictly and the ecological component records the sustainability for the respective areas of environmental problems. Using examples from the field of chemistry, it has been demonstrated that problems have arisen through the substituted substances which are recognized as being ecologically harmful, since the sustainability was not applied as the central criterion for the environmental evaluation of organic materials. The conventions on ‘Persistent Organic Pollutants’ (POPs) which have been agreed upon provide a chance to revive the research on the sustainability of organic chemicals. Similar findings are seen for the GMOs, whose ecosystemic risks should not merely be defined based upon their human toxicological and already recognized ecological aspects.     

Confidence limits on one-stage model parameters in benchmark risk assessment

In modern environmental risk analysis, inferences are often desired on those low dose levels at which a fixed benchmark risk is achieved. In this paper, we study the use of confidence limits on parameters from a simple one-stage model of risk historically popular in benchmark analysis with quantal data. Based on these confidence bounds, we present methods for deriving upper confidence limits on extra risk and lower bounds on the benchmark dose. The methods are seen to extend automatically to the case where simultaneous inferences are desired at multiple doses. Monte Carlo evaluations explore characteristics of the parameter estimates and the confidence limits under this setting.

Ökotoxikologische und humantoxikologische Risikobewertung PAK-belasteter Böden vor und nach biologischer Behandlung

The goal of the present work is to assess the adverse effects of soil bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) which remain in soils after biological remediation. We focus on risk assessment for mammalian species with respect to the oral uptake of contaminated soil particles and compare the results of a biomarker test with those of an ecotoxicological assay, the bioluminescence inhibition test withVibrio fischeri. As a biomarker effect in mammals, we determined the liver microsomal cytochrome P450 enzyme CYP1A1 which is induced by PAH in exposed rats. After biological soil treatment, different amounts of PAH remain in the soil depending on the soil properties and initial pollutant composition. Particularly, higher condensated PAH resists biological treatment due to its hydrophobicity. In addition, high amounts of organic carbon in the soils affect remediation efficiency. In the bioluminescence inhibition test, eluates of all biologically treated soils studied do not reveal any or only low inhibitory effects. In contrast, the oral uptake of biologically treated contaminated soils leads to induction levels for CYP1A1 similar to those in the untreated samples. A good correlation is obtained between CYP1A1 levels and the amount of 5 and 6-ring PAH in the soil samples. The main result is that the remediation efficiency determined by the luminescence test is not reflected by the biomarker test, a finding which indicates the high bioavailability of residual PAH in soils. Consequently, new criteria for human risk assessment can be delineated.     

Minimizing opportunity costs to aquatic connectivity restoration while controlling an invasive species

Controlling invasive species is critical for conservation but can have unintended consequences for native species and divert resources away from other efforts. This dilemma occurs on a grand scale in the North American Great Lakes, where dams and culverts block tributary access to habitat of desirable fish species and are a lynchpin of long‐standing efforts to limit ecological damage inflicted by the invasive, parasitic sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). Habitat restoration and sea‐lamprey control create conflicting goals for managing aging infrastructure. We used optimization to minimize opportunity costs of habitat gains for 37 desirable migratory fishes that arose from restricting sea lamprey access (0–25% increase) when selecting barriers for removal under a limited budget (US$1–105 million). Imposing limits on sea lamprey habitat reduced gains in tributary access for desirable species by 15–50% relative to an unconstrained scenario. Additional investment to offset the effect of limiting sea‐lamprey access resulted in high opportunity costs for 30 of 37 species (e.g., an additional US$20–80 million for lake sturgeon [Acipenser fulvescens]) and often required ≥5% increase in sea‐lamprey access to identify barrier‐removal solutions adhering to the budget and limiting access. Narrowly distributed species exhibited the highest opportunity costs but benefited more at less cost when small increases in sea‐lamprey access were allowed. Our results illustrate the value of optimization in limiting opportunity costs when balancing invasion control against restoration benefits for diverse desirable species. Such trade‐off analyses are essential to the restoration of connectivity within fragmented rivers without unleashing invaders.