The role of size inequality in self-thinning: A pattern-oriented simulation model for arid savannas

The self-thinning line is a very robust pattern, which can be obtained in modeling studies by a variety of different mechanistic assumptions. Our opinion is that we can only advance in our understanding of mechanisms leading to the self-thinning relationship if we demand that the model also reproduces several other characteristic features (patterns) of the self-thinning process such as the degree of size inequality and the average size. We use a pattern-oriented modeling approach to develop a model of self-thinning under size inequality in overcrowded, even-aged stands, which reproduces these three patterns simultaneously. Our approach is to first develop an initial model based on our current ecological knowledge and then to refine the model by modifying the initial model to derive the model that reproduces all patterns of interest.The initial model is as simple as possible while avoiding incidental, ecologically unjustified, assumptions. It is a further development of zone of influence-simulation models: each plant is described by two circles, one describing a minimum-domain-area and one describing the zone of influence. In the initial model, mortality is “death-by-contact” of minimum-domain-areas and growth is a function of inter-tree competition, i.e. overlapping zones of influence. Model parameterization is based on field data on Acacia reficiens in southern Africa. Simulations follow patches of initially small trees through time for up to 1000 years with five parameters, three describing growth and two describing inter-tree competition. A sensitivity analysis shows that all parameters of the initial model contribute significantly to the number and size of plants through time. The two competition parameters, which describe competitive asymmetry and the size of the zone of influence relative to canopy size, are both important for generating size inequality. Thus, both competitive asymmetry and spatial pattern contribute to size inequality, and their relative importance may vary greatly.The sensitivity analysis suggests that all processes included in the initial model are essential to the evolution of size inequality. However, size inequality under the initial model is below field values, meaning that additional, as yet unconsidered processes, contribute to size inequality. Our best-fit model additionally contains details on growth stochasticity.This study establishes the often-proposed direct link between mortality driven by local competition and self-thinning and highlights the importance of stochasticity in ecological processes.     

Offsetting impacts of development on biodiversity and ecosystem services

Ambio - Offsetting—trading losses in one place for commensurate gains in another—is a tool used to mitigate environmental impacts of development. Biodiversity and carbon are the most...     

Developing a theoretical foundation to change road user behavior and improve traffic safety: Driving under the influence of cannabis (DUIC)

Objectives: This study explored a theoretical model to assess the influence of culture on willingness and intention to drive under the influence of cannabis (DUIC). This model is expected to guide the design of strategies to change future DUIC behavior in road users.

Methods: This study used a survey methodology to obtain a nationally representative sample (n = 941) from the AmeriSpeak Panel. Survey items were designed to measure aspects of a proposed definition of traffic safety culture and a predictive model of its relationship to DUIC.

Results: Although the percentage of reported past DUIC behaviors was relatively low (8.5%), this behavior is still a significant public health issue—especially for younger drivers (18–29 years), who reported more DUIC than expected. Findings suggest that specific cultural components (attitudes, norms) reliably predict past DUIC behavior, general DUIC willingness, and future DUIC intention. Most DUIC behavior appears to be deliberate, related significantly to willingness and intention. Intention and willingness both appear to fully moderate the relationship between traffic safety culture and DUIC behavior.

Conclusions: This study explored a theoretical model to understand road user behavior involving drug (cannabis)-impaired driving as a significant risk factor for traffic safety. By understanding the cultural factors that increase DUIC behavior, we can create strategies to transform this culture and sustain safer road user behavior.     

Concentrations of PM2.5-associated OC, EC, and PCDD/Fs measured during the 2003 wildfire season in Missoula, Montana

Throughout August and September, 2003, wildfires burned in close proximity to Missoula, Montana, with smoke emanating from the fires impacting the valley for much of the summer. This presented the perfect opportunity to measure the levels of polychlorinated dibenzodioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F) comprising ambient forest fire smoke particles impacting the Missoula Valley. An air sampler at the Montana Department of Environmental Quality's (DEQ) compliance site in Missoula measured hourly averages of PM₁₀ throughout the fire season. Three collocated PM_2.5 cyclones collected 24-h smoke samples using quartz filters and Polyurethane Foam (PUF) sorbent cartridges. From the quartz filters, concentrations of Organic and Elemental Carbon (OC/EC) were measured, while PCDD/F were measured from one set of a filter (particle phase) and PUF (vapor phase) aggregate of samples in an attempt to also investigate the different phases of PCDD/F in forest fire smoke impaired communities.Hourly PM₁₀ concentrations peaked at 302.9 μg m⁻³ on August 15. The highest OC concentration (115.6 μg m⁻³) was measured between August 21–22, and the highest EC concentration of 10.5 μg m⁻³ was measured August 20–21. Measurable concentrations of PM_2.5 associated PCDD/Fs were not detected from a representative aggregate sample, with the exception of small amounts of 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-heptachlorodibenzodioxin and octachlorodibenzodioxin. PM_2.5 samples collected during the smoke events were composed of approximately 65% OC. However, the OC fraction of the particles collected in the smoke impaired Missoula valley was not composed of significant amounts of PCDD/F.     

Size matters: variation in the diet of chick and adult crested terns

We investigated ontogenetic, temporal and spatial patterns in the composition and size of prey in the diet of crested terns, Sterna bergii. Diet analyses indicated that crested terns are a generalist predator on surface-schooling clupeids (Australian anchovy Engraulis australis, sardine Sardinops sagax and blue sprat Spratelloides robustus), Degens leatherjacket Thamnaconus degeni, southern sea garfish Hyporhamphus melanochir, Australian herring Arripis georgianus, slender bullseye Parapriacanthus elongatus and barracouta Thyrsites atun. Ontogenetic differences in prey size indicated that adults are constrained in their foraging behaviour during the early chick-provisioning period by the need to self feed and select smaller prey that can be ingested by their chicks. Chicks consumed significantly higher proportions of clupeids than adults, which consumed mainly Degens leatherjackets and barracouta, suggesting that adults may select higher quality prey for their chicks compared to what they consume themselves. Spatial differences in prey composition were driven by differing proportions of sardine, Australian anchovy and Degens leatherjacket and could reflect local differences in the abundances of these prey. The size of prey taxa consumed by adults also reflected a North–South gradient in prey size. The large component of juvenile sardine in the diet of crested terns suggests future dietary measures may inform fisheries managers about changes in local juvenile sardine abundance. These data could assist in highlighting any fishery-related decreases in sardine recruitment and help ensure commercial fishing practices address principals of Ecologically Sustainable Development developed for Australian fisheries.     

Incentive pricing and cost recovery at the basin scale

Incentive pricing programs have potential to promote economically efficient water use patterns and provide a revenue source to compensate for environmental damages. However, incentive pricing may impose disproportionate costs and aggravate poverty where high prices are levied for basic human needs. This paper presents an analysis of a two-tiered water pricing system that sets a low price for subsistence needs, while charging a price equal to marginal cost, including environmental cost, for discretionary uses. This pricing arrangement can promote efficient and sustainable water use patterns, goals set by the European Water Framework Directive, while meeting subsistence needs of poor households. Using data from the Rio Grande Basin of North America, a dynamic nonlinear program, maximizes the basin's total net economic and environmental benefits subject to several hydrological and institutional constraints. Supply costs, environmental costs, and resource costs are integrated in a model of a river basin's hydrology, economics, and institutions. Three programs are compared: (1) Law of the River, in which water allocations and prices are determined by rules governing water transfers; (2) marginal cost pricing, in which households pay the full marginal cost of supplying treated water; (3) two-tiered pricing, in which households' subsistence water needs are priced cheaply, while discretionary uses are priced at efficient levels. Compared to the Law of the River and marginal cost pricing, two-tiered pricing performs well for efficiency and adequately for sustainability and equity. Findings provide a general framework for formulating water pricing programs that promote economically and environmentally efficient water use programs while also addressing other policy goals.     

The Missoula Valley Semivolatile and Volatile Organic Compound Study: Seasonal Average Concentrations

Abstract

The city of Missoula is located in a high mountain valley (elevation 3200 ft) in western Montana and contains one of the largest populations in the entire Rocky Mountain Region completely enclosed by mountains. During the 2000/2001 Missoula Valley Sampling Program, ambient levels of 61 semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs) and 54 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were originally quantified before refining the analytical program to 28 of the most prominent SVOCs and VOCs found in the Missoula Valley airshed. These compounds were measured over 24-hr periods at two locations throughout an entire year. This study provides the first, comprehensive appraisal of the levels of SVOCs and VOCs measured simultaneously throughout all four seasons at two locations in the Missoula Valley, including those levels measured during the 2000 Montana wildfire season. Generally, SVOC levels were comparable between both sides of the Missoula Valley. However, there were nearly double the amount of VOCs measured at the more urban Boyd Park site compared with the rural Frenchtown sampling site, a result of the greater number of automobiles on the eastern side of the Valley. SVOCs and VOCs were measured at their highest levels of the sampling program during the winter. Forest fire smoke samples collected during the summer of 2000 showed significant increases in SVOC phenolic compounds, including phenol, 2-methylphenol, 4-methylphenol, and 2,4-dimethylphenol. Although there were modest increases in some of the other SVOCs and VOCs measured during the fire season, none of the increases were as dramatic as the phenolics.     

Interpretation of standard leaching test BS EN 12457-2: is your sample hazardous or inert?

A slag sample from a lead refiner has been obtained and given to two analytical laboratories to determine the release of trace elements from the sample according to BS EN 12457-2. Samples analysed by one laboratory passed waste acceptance criteria, leading it to be classified as an inert material; samples of the same material analysed by the other laboratory failed waste acceptance criteria and were classified as hazardous. It was found that the sample preparation procedure is the critical step in the leaching analysis and that the effects of particle size on leachability should be taken into account when using this standard. The purpose of this paper is to open a debate on designing a better defined standard leaching test and making current waste acceptance criteria more flexible.     

Ongoing ascent to the helium production plateau—Insights from system dynamics

Recent, pre-downturn, disturbance in the global helium market can be traced to the tight supply–demand position, which characterizes today’s changing helium supply structure. A detailed System Dynamics model provides fresh insight into the helium question and suggests a production path that is closely associated with future natural gas production. Venting of un-extracted helium to the atmosphere remains a central issue. The model indicates that improving resource exploitation strategies might extend a production plateau that emerges in the 2030s. Substitution will result in more helium being vented. To mitigate this, the industry needs to ensure security of supply (particularly after the Bureau of Land Management reserve is sold).     

Importance of species translocations under rapid climate change

Species that cannot adapt or keep pace with a changing climate are likely to need human intervention to shift to more suitable climates. While hundreds of articles mention using translocation as a climate-change adaptation tool, in practice, assisted migration as a conservation action remains rare, especially for animals. This is likely due to concern over introducing species to places where they may become invasive. However, there are other barriers to consider, such as time-frame mismatch, sociopolitical, knowledge and uncertainty barriers to conservationists adopting assisted migration as a go-to strategy. We recommend the following to advance assisted migration as a conservation tool: attempt assisted migrations at small scales, translocate species with little invasion risk, adopt robust monitoring protocols that trigger an active response, and promote political and public support.