Estimating parameters of hidden Markov models based on marked individuals: use of robust design data

Development and use of multistate mark-recapture models, which provide estimates of parameters of Markov processes in the face of imperfect detection, have become common over the last 20 years. Recently, estimating parameters of hidden Markov models, where the state of an individual can be uncertain even when it is detected, has received attention. Previous work has shown that ignoring state uncertainty biases estimates of survival and state transition probabilities, thereby reducing the power to detect effects. Efforts to adjust for state uncertainty have included special cases and a general framework for a single sample per period of interest. We provide a flexible framework for adjusting for state uncertainty in multistate models, while utilizing multiple sampling occasions per period of interest to increase precision and remove parameter redundancy. These models also produce direct estimates of state structure for each primary period, even for the case where there is just one sampling occasion. We apply our model to expected-value data, and to data from a study of Florida manatees, to provide examples of the improvement in precision due to secondary capture occasions. We have also implemented these models in program MARK. This general framework could also be used by practitioners to consider constrained models of particular interest, or to model the relationship between within-primary-period parameters (e.g., state structure) and between-primary-period parameters (e.g., state transition probabilities).     

NUTRIENT CONTENT OF CROP CANOPY THROUGHFALL PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA1

ABSTRACT: Nutrient contents of canopy throughfall precipitation (TFP) from fertilized and unfertilized crops were analyzed and compared to determine the importance of fertilization on this source of nutrients in runoff. Continuous barley, corn, oats, rye, and wheat plots, that had been unfertilized since 1941 and divided and half fertilized since 1959, were studied. TFP soluble PO₄, total PO₄, and soluble K amounts were usually larger from fertilized plots in comparison to unfertilized ones but the differences usually were not significant. NH₄-N and NO₃-N may have been adsorbed from precipitation by corn canopies.     

Modelling flow to leachate wells in landfills

Vertical wells are frequently used as a means of controlling leachate levels in landfills. They are often the only available dewatering option for both old landfills without any basal leachate collection layer and for newer sites where the installed drainage infrastructure has failed. When the well is pumped, a seepage face develops at the entry into the well so that the drawdown in the surrounding waste will not be as great as might be expected. The numerical groundwater flow model MODFLOW-SURFACT, which contains the functionality to model seepage surfaces, has been used to investigate the transient dewatering of a landfill. The study concludes that the position of the seepage face and information about the characteristics of the induced seepage flow field are important and should not be neglected when designing wells in landfills.     

COST MINIMIZATION OF NUTRIENT REDUCTION IN WATERSHED MANAGEMENT USING LINEAR PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT: Linear programming is applied to identify the least cost strategy for reaching politically specified phosphorus and total suspended solids reduction targets for the Fox-Wolf river basin in Northeast Wisconsin. The programming model uses data collected on annualized unit reduction costs associated with five categories of sources of phosphorus and total suspended solids discharge in each of the 41 sub-watersheds in the basin to determine the least cost management strategy. Results indicate that: (1) cost-effective nutrient reduction requires careful selection of geographic areas and source categories to address throughout the watershed; (2) agricultural sources are the most cost-effective to address in the basin; and (3) care should be exercised in setting nutrient reduction targets, given that there are likely to be significantly increasing marginal costs of nutrient reduction; the model predicts that lowering the most restrictive target by 33 percent would cut reduction expenditures by about 75 percent. Policy implications of the model include support for the investigation and potential development of institutional arrangements that enable cost-effective nutrient reduction activities to occur, such as the creation of an agency with authority over a given watershed, coordinated watershed management activities, or nutrient trading programs.     

WATER AND ENERGY IN THE WESTERN COAL LANDS1

ABSTRACT: Problems of water quality and quantity are critical to development of the energy resources of the Western U. S. Based on a number of independent measures, the Upper Colorado River Basin will experience severe water availability problems in a few decades if projected energy and agricultural development occurs. Given the impending collision between the competing interests of various Western water users, water resource management and conservation deserves the utmost attention. Substantial opportunities for conservation exist in energy and agricultural development. Selection of both conversion and cooling technologies and careful siting decisions can sharply reduce the water requirements of energy development. Agricultural water conservation strategies include improving irrigation and cultivation practices, removing phreatophytes, removing marginal lands from production, and changing crop patterns. In order to accomplish significant conservation, however, there must be changes in those aspects of Western water law that remove conservation incentives from the water use system.     

FACTOR ANALYSIS OF DRAINAGE BASIN PROPERTIES: CLASSIFICATION OF FLOOD BEHAVIOR IN TERMS OF BASIN GEOMORPHOLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Basin parameters such as drainage density, channel slope, shape factors, and a geometric factor were used in a factor analysis of 112 basins in Pennsylvania and surrounding states. Three distinct homogeneous definable groups resulted. Group I basins were those with an area on the order of 100 square miles, low channel slopes, and/or located within the western glaciated portion of Pennsylvania. Watersheds underlain by carbonate rocks or glacial tills constituted Group 11. A main channel slope of greater than 0.017 in a high precipitation area or a small drainage area were the criteria for Group III basins. There exists a continuous range from Group I basins, where absorption was high to the Group III basins where either the storm pattern or the absorbing character of the soils gave a very low absorption.     

Irrigated mountain meadow fertilizer application timing effects on overland flow water quality

Nonpoint-source pollution from agricultural activities is currently the leading cause of degradation of waterways in the United States. Applying best management practices to flood-irrigated mountain meadows may improve agricultural runoff and return flow water quality. Prior research has focused on fertilizer use for increased hay yields, while few studies have investigated the environmental implications of this practice. We examined the effects of fertilizer application timing on overland flow water quality from an irrigated mountain meadow near Gunnison, Colorado. Application of 40 kg phosphorus (P) and 19 kg nitrogen (N) ha(-1) using monoammonium phosphate (11-52-0, N-P-K) fertilizer to plots in the fall significantly reduced concentrations of reactive P and ammonium N in irrigation overland flow compared with early or late spring fertilization. Reactive P loading was 9 to almost 16 times greater when fertilizer was applied in the early or late spring, respectively, compared with in the fall. Ammonium N followed a similar trend with early spring loading more than 18 times greater and late spring loading more than 34 times greater than loads from fall-fertilized plots. Losses of 45% of the applied P and more than 17% of the N were measured in runoff when fertilizer was applied in the late spring. These results, coupled with those from previous studies, suggest that mountain meadow hay producers should apply fertilizer in the fall, especially P-based fertilizers, to improve hay yields, avoid economic losses from loss of applied fertilizers, and reduce the potential for impacts to water quality.     

Effect of forest harvesting best management practices on coarse woody debris distribution in stream and riparian zones in three Appalachian watersheds

The distribution of coarse woody debris (CWD) was analyzed in three Appalachian watersheds in eastern Kentucky, eighteen years after harvest. The three watersheds included an unharvested control (Control), a second watershed with best management practices (BMPs) applied that included a 15.2 m unharvested zone near the stream (BMP watershed), and a third watershed that was harvested without strict BMPs with harvesting occurring up to the stream edge and slash left within the stream and riparian zones (No BMP watershed). We assessed the CWD occurring both within the riparian zone and stream in the three watersheds. Within both stream and riparian zones, the BMP and No BMP watersheds contained more CWD biomass than in the Control, however, the No BMP watershed CWD was in a more advanced state of decay than in either the BMP or Control watersheds. Nitrogen content in CWD was also greater in the No BMP watershed because of the more advanced state of the decay. The CWD present in the Control is the result of natural forest processes such as death and self-pruning. The CWD in the No BMP watershed is a result of the slash left behind after the harvest since little opportunity exists for new recruitment of CWD from the surrounding area. From our decay class data, it is apparent that at least some of the CWD in the BMP watershed has occurred since harvest, and, based on our biomass data, at a much greater rate of recruitment than in the Control watershed. We hypothesize that the harvest outside of the riparian zone in the BMP watershed may have led to greater windthrow and/or slumping than in the Control watershed. As such, our data suggest that riparian zones of 15.2 m may not be effective in maintaining the short-term integrity of the CWD pool within steep gradient Appalachian systems.     

WHO SHOULD MANAGE THE HIGH PLAINS AQUIFER? THE IRRIGATORS' PERSPECTIVE1

ABSTRACT: A state-local partnership exists in Colorado and Kansas with respect to management of the High Plains aquifer. This paper examines 330 irrigators' attitudes about the locus-of-control for different management activities in the High Plains-Ogallala region. Local control was preferred by most irrigators. The local district was most supported for 19 active management activities, whereas the state was favored for eight specific activities, primarily research efforts and water rights administration. Eight activities that had the potential for restricting water use were rejected in that irrigators indicated that no agency should be involved. Kansas and Colorado exhibited statistically significant preference differences for only five management options. A significantly higher percentage of those irrigators who preferred local control believed in sustainable management of the aquifer and aggressive groundwater management, and that their district served their interests.