基于在线检测信息的储罐底板腐蚀状态智能评价方法

为了解决利用声发射在线检测技术对储罐底板腐蚀状态进行评价时,主要依赖检测人员经验的问题,使该项技术能更好地推广和应用,利用储罐底板在线检测的声发射信息和外观检查信息,并根据相关标准及专家经验,确定与储罐底板腐蚀状态相关的表征因素。采用遗传算法(GA)改进贝叶斯网络(BN)搜索方法,建立基于GA的BN智能评价方法。针对声发射在线检测信息和外观检查信息,分别建立基于标准用声发射因素、基于声发射因素和综合考虑声发射因素和外观检查因素的基于在线检测信息的储罐底板腐蚀状态评价模型。通过对测试样本的评价,对比声发射检测专家评价结果,其中基于在线检测信息的储罐底板腐蚀状态评价模型的准确率为96%,该模型能够对储罐底板腐蚀状态进行可靠的智能评价。     

炼油厂VOCs排放及其对O3生成的敏感性研究

对某炼油石化厂进行了O3体积分数和VOCs的监测分析,获得炼油厂周边地区各月O3的体积分数变化特征和日O3体积分数变化特征.研究发现,该炼油厂地区O3体积分数经常超过国家二级标准,说明该地区O3污染严重.该地区O3日变化曲线不同于所在城市中心的O3变化特征.炼油厂地区O3体积分数在6-8月显示出双峰特性以及更长的最大值持续时间.与此同时,在5月、9月、10月使用SUMMA采样罐在炼油厂厂界进行VOCs样品采集,使用气相色谱质谱联用仪(GC - MS)对样品进行分析,得到厂界VOCs各组分的体积分数,烷烃比例最高,约82.6％,其中直链烷烃占49.9％,而芳香烃和烯烃仅为10.2％和7.5％.VOCs监测结果与文献相近,烯烃排放量略低.此外,为了对炼油石化厂排放的VOCs各物种敏感性特征进行量化描述,利用丙烯等效浓度法,对炼油厂区域各VOCs物种的反应活性进行了归一化研究,量化了该地区各物种的反应活性,获得了综合反应活性较强的5种烯烃、4种直链烷烃和1种环烷烃.     

基于层次分析和模糊评价的民航客机雷击风险管理

雷击作为严重威胁飞行安全的一个重要危险源,对其采取科学的手段进行评估,进而采取措施进行缓解,对提高民航的安全水平有着重要的意义。首先介绍了雷暴现象及其危害,并介绍了风险管理的基本概念。然后探讨了层次分析法和模糊综合评价方法在雷击风险管理中的应用。按照层次分析法和模糊评价法的基本过程对调查所得的数据进行了处理,得到了雷击事件的风险值,并给出了风险缓解措施。文章给出的方法对航空公司运行中的其它危险源同样有借鉴意义。     

Determination of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) in agricultural soils near a petrochemical complex in Guangzhou,China

The total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) pollution in regional agricultural soils was investigated. Seventy soil samples collected from surface layers (0–20 cm) and horizons of five selected pedons in the vicinity of a petrochemical complex in Guangzhou, China were analyzed, and the vertical variation and spatial variability of TPH were evaluated. The TPH concentration in top soils around the petrochemical complex ranged from 1,179.3 to 6,354.9 mg kg^− 1, with the average of 2,676.6 mg kg^− 1. Furthermore, significant differences between land-use types showed that the TPH concentration in top soils was strongly influenced by accidental spills. Both the TPH trends in pedons and the identified hot-spot areas also showed that the accidental explosions or burning accidents were mainly responsible for the pollution. The results reported here suggest that the regular monitoring and inspection shall be conducted for safety and to avoid or minimize the accidents, and the effective measures should be taken to remediate the contaminated areas and to assure that the important industrialization of Guangzhou area would not mean human health risks near the petrochemical complex.     

Projected Years Lost due to Disabilities (YLDs) for bacillary dysentery related to increased temperature in temperate and subtropical cities of China

The impact of climate change on enteric infection has been a concern in recent years. This study aims to project disability burdens of bacillary dysentery (BD) associated with increasing temperature in different climatic zones in China. Years Lost due to Disabilities (YLDs) were used as the measure of burden of bacillary dysentery in this study. A temperate city in northern China and a subtropical city in southern China were selected as the study areas. The quantitative relationship between temperature and the number of cases in each city was base on the regression models developed in our previous studies. YLDs for bacillary dysentery in 2000 were used as the baseline data. Projection of YLDs for bacillary dysentery in 2020 and 2050 under future temperature scenarios were conducted. Demographic changes over the next 20 to 50 years in study cities were considered in the projections. Under the temperature scenarios alone, the YLDs for bacillary dysentery may increase by up to 80% by 2020 and 174% by 2050 in the temperate city and up to 75% increase in the YLDs by 2020 and a 147% increase by 2050 in the tropical city. Considering potential changes in both temperature and population size and structure, if other factors remain constant, compared with the YLDs observed in 2000, the YLDs for bacillary dysentery may double by 2020 and triple by 2050 in both the temperate and subtropical cities in China. The temperature-related health burden of enteric infection in China may greatly increase in the future if there is no effective intervention. Relevant public health strategies should be developed at an earlier stage to prevent and reduce the impact of infectious disease associated with climate change.     

Fraction characteristics of rare earth elements in the surface sediment of Bohai Bay, North China

Surface sediment samples were collected at 27 stations of Bohai Bay, North China. Sequential extractions were carried out in this study. REE were leached out from four labile fractions: Exchangeable (L1), bound to carbonates (L2), bound to Fe–Mn oxides (L3), bound to organic matter (L4), and the remainder was residual (R5). The total contents of REE fluctuate slightly in Bohai Bay, and are mainly concentrated in the middle region, showing relatively higher levels in the north than that in the south of Bohai Bay. Percentages of L1, L2, L3, L4, and R5 for REE suggest that the residual fraction accounts for the major component of REE, whereas Fe–Mn oxides also play important roles in combining labile REE. As the REE complex is not stabilized, the competition of complex could induce dissociation of the complex and redistribution of the REE in various environments. According to REE patterns and Y/Ho ratios of samples, REE are not anthropogenic or oceanic sources but riverine input, whereas suitable environment varieties can slightly affect the patterns and fractionations of REE. As powerful tracers for the variable of environment, higher anomaly of Eu and Ce in southern regions indicates a greater reduction in the condition of surface sediment in the south than that in the north of Bohai Bay.     

南通市降尘时空分布特征及影响因素

对2004年—2009年南通市降尘监测数据进行分析,结果表明,市区降尘污染较轻,年均值全部达标,在6年间呈波状变化态势;从各月分布来看,3—7月降尘污染较为严重;在各功能区中,受降尘污染程度从大到小依次为:居民区>工业区>商业交通区>文教区。提出,应继续推进城区企业工艺改造升级,加快燃煤锅炉淘汰;施工(运输)期间对易产生扬尘的建筑材料应采取密闭存储、设置围挡等有效措施并保证建筑垃圾及时清运、施工车辆及道路及时清扫冲洗;加大城市的绿化建设和道路的硬化建设,尽量避免道路开挖。     

Manganese concentrations in maternal–infant blood and birth weight

Manganese (Mn) is an essential mineral nutrient in mammals. The physiological role of Mn in animal models is well documented, but little is known about the adverse effects of Mn deficiency or overexposure in humans, including pregnancy outcomes such as birth weight. We examined the relationship of the maternal and cord blood Mn levels with birth weight in a cohort of 172 mother–infant pairs born in Shanghai, China. Non-linear spline and quadratic regression models were used to test the hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped association between the Mn levels and birth weight. The median (range) levels of Mn in the maternal and cord blood were 5.38 (2.34–30.37) μg/dL and 7.66 (2.57–34.23) μg/dL, respectively. An inverted U-shaped relationship was observed between maternal Mn and birth weight after adjusting for potential confounders. The birth weight increased with Mn levels up to 4.18 μg/dL, and a slight reduction in weight was observed at higher levels. The cord blood Mn levels were not found to be associated with birth weight. Both lower and higher Mn exposures are associated with lower birth weight, which may influence important developmental parameters; the association of higher Mn levels with lower weight was weak and imprecise.